Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[DL]

The Manitoba Liberals have a history of having flash in the pan robust results in byelections followed by annihilation at the subsequent provincial election. The latest province wide poll released last week has them at a paltry 13%. If there was anything "real" about the MB Liberals strong showings in Fort Whyte and Kirkfield Park - you would expect to see at least a teeny-weeny bump in province-wide numbers.

Sure you can extrapolate from this byelection, but if you extrapolated the next UK election from a couple of recent byelections in Tory/Lib Dem contests the universal swing model would suggest a Lib Dem majority government in the next election - meanwhile they poll in single digits 

https://probe-research.com/polls/ndp-lead-inches-slightly-higher-december-2022-omnibus

[DL]

And as for Sarah Jama: I can't rule out the likelihood of her losing; but by that measure, Joel Harden should have been a goner upon nomination to Ottawa Centre in '18--and he was reelected by a landslide in '22.  (He also might have been Stiles' likeliest viable leadership opponent on the left, had he not been reprimanded by acting leader Peter Tabuns for perceived anti-Semitic statements)

FYI: Joel Harden announced he would not seek the ONDP leadership for personal reasons, long before that brouhaha about his perceived anti-Semitic comments.

I suspect the NDP will easily hold Hamilton Centre. Its a much much more NDP seat than Ottawa Centre is and the NDP has a new leader who is about 100 times more appealing than Horwath was. Also, the Liberals have to deal with a tarnished brand both provincially and federally. Running the same grade Z candidate who was squashed like a bug in 2018 is not the way i would imagine a Liberal upset win there would happen. They'd have to come up with some "supernova" of a candidate - and Deirdre Pike is more of a smouldering ember