European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[YL]

Of course the United Kingdom is going to send some right-wing populist loons to the European Parliament as a lovely parting gift, as if the ideology still makes any logical sense in the country given the last two years. I hope they're out of the EU by the next election, which I now can see not happening honestly.

You do realise that stopping the idiotic Brexit project would be a huge (and richly deserved) embarrassment for right-wing populist loons?

[YL]

All the candidate lists in the UK have now been published.

In Great Britain, 7 parties are standing in all regions: Change UK - The Independent Group; the Conservatives; the Greens; Labour; the Lib Dems; The Brexit Party; UKIP.  The SNP and Plaid Cymru are obviously standing in Scotland and Wales respectively.

The English Democrats are standing in the East of England, North West England, South West England and Yorkshire & the Humber.  The UK EU Party, a newly registered party, are standing in London, the North West and the South East.  The Yorkshire Party, regionalists with no particular position on the EU, are standing in Yorkshire & the Humber; the Animal Welfare Party and the Women's Equality Party are standing in London; the World Socialist Movement are standing in the South East (lol); the Independent Network (not to be confused with The Independent Group) are standing in the East Midlands.

There are also a few Independents separate from the party lists.  Several of them are calling themselves Climate & Ecological Emergency Independents and are associated with Extinction Rebellion; seven of them are standing separately (so effectively against each other as well as everybody else) in London and two in the South West, leading to speculation that they don't understand the electoral system.  Alt-right activist "Tommy Robinson" is standing in the North West.

[YL]

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, which uses STV, there are 11 candidates:

Jim Allister - Traditional Unionist Voice
Martina Anderson - Sinn Féin
Clare Bailey - Green
Amandeep Bhogal - Conservative
Diane Dodds - DUP
Colum Eastwood - SDLP
Robert Hill - UKIP
Danny Kennedy - UUP
Naomi Long - Alliance
Neil McCann - Independent
Jane Morrice - no description

Morrice was associated with the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition in their day.

There are three seats.  Anderson, Dodds and Kennedy are favourites, but if Unionist turnout falters or transfers from cross-community parties favour the SDLP more than usual Eastwood might have an outside chance.

[YL]

LucidTalk poll of Northern Ireland.

Recall NI has three seats, currently one each for Sinn Féin, the DUP and UUP, and uses STV.

Anderson (SF) 27.2%
Dodds (DUP) 20.2%
Eastwood (SDLP) 13.1%
Kennedy (UUP) 11.8%
Long (Alliance) 11.3%
Allister (TUV) 8.5%
Bailey (Green) 4.6%
Hill (UKIP) 1.7%
Morrice (Ind) 1.4%
Bhogal (Con) 0.1%
McCann (Ind) 0.1%

On these figures, the UUP are in trouble.  The transfers of the SF surplus and the bottom five candidates' votes are going to help the SDLP and Alliance over them.  Some of Allister's transfers will find their way to the UUP but it's not impossible they'll be fifth at that point and eliminated.  Even if they're not fifth, then it's not looking good for them: if it's the SDLP eliminated their transfers will favour Alliance, while Alliance transfers tended to favour the SDLP quite strongly in the local government elections, so whichever of those two is left would be likely to take the seat.  (If the UUP are eliminated, then their transfers, whether directly or via a DUP surplus, should favour Alliance enough that the seat is likely to go to them in that scenario.)

[YL]

There have been several EU polls for the UK published in the last 24 hours.

Though some others are close, there is still only one pollster who has the LibDems ahead of Labour.

YouGov (for it is they) are going to look either very prescient or highly stupid come Monday morning.

When one poll (YouGov) shows the Brexit Party on 37%, Labour on 13% and the Tories on 7% and another (Kantar) shows the Brexit Party on 27%, Labour on 24% and the Tories on 13% someone is going to be wrong.  (The others are generally somewhere between these two extremes, though YouGov really is on its own with its low Labour shares.)

[YL]

There have been several EU polls for the UK published in the last 24 hours.

Though some others are close, there is still only one pollster who has the LibDems ahead of Labour.

YouGov (for it is they) are going to look either very prescient or highly stupid come Monday morning.

When one poll (YouGov) shows the Brexit Party on 37%, Labour on 13% and the Tories on 7% and another (Kantar) shows the Brexit Party on 27%, Labour on 24% and the Tories on 13% someone is going to be wrong.  (The others are generally somewhere between these two extremes, though YouGov really is on its own with its low Labour shares.)

Since I posted this I've become aware of an Ipsos-MORI poll which also put the Lib Dems second, on 20%, ahead of Labour with 15%.  So YouGov are no longer on their own.

We'll see...

[YL]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912

Looks like fairly blatant expectation management to me - Tories will do badly, but *that* badly??

Yeah, given that their best region (his own) has ten seats they shouldn't actually be wiped out.  On the worse polling figures for them, though, that could be the only seat they get.

Meanwhile the final UK poll for this election - by Survation and taken yesterday - has BxP on 31% and Labour second on 23% (still well ahead of the LibDems)

Someone is going to be wrong.

Given the oddness of this election and the difficulty of working out who was actually going to vote, even pollsters who are right may just have got lucky.

[YL]

From the interviews with FPÖ-voters:

"I'm sticking with H.C. (Strache), I'm sticking with the FPÖ - no matter what happens. After all, we all have secrets and they put him in a trap and intoxicated him. The other parties are traitors for the country. I'm wondering what the videos of smoke-filled backrooms involving EU politicians would show, etc. etc."

Not very surprising to anyone who has read Altemeyer's The Authoritarians.

[YL]

When are we going to get Scotland results?

Tomorrow, Catholics in the Hebrides refuse to count on Sundays...

Rather more the Presbyterians, no?

Yes.  The northern islands (Lewis and Harris, which is one island with different names for its two parts, and North Uist) have a strong Sabbatarian tradition; until not that long ago there were no ferries to the islands on Sundays, and there are still signs in some areas asking people not to use playgrounds on Sundays.  The southern islands, Barra and South Uist, are Catholic and AIUI tend to be more relaxed about this, but most of the population is in the north, including Stornoway where the council is based and so presumably where the count will be happening.

Anyway, there aren't that many votes there, so we know that Scotland will have elected 3 SNP and 1 each Brexit Party, Lib Dem and Tory.  So the overall result for UK excluding NI will be

Brexit Party 29 seats (32% of the vote)
Lib Dems 16 seats (20% of the vote)
Labour 10 seats (14% of the vote)
Green 7 seats (12% of the vote)
Tories 4 seats (9% of the vote)
SNP 3 seats
Plaid Cymru 1 seat

I think Ipsos-MORI win the pollsters' contest (they had 35% Brexit Party, 20% Lib Dem, 15% Labour, 10% Green, 9% Tory); Survation were closest on the Brexit Party share, but over-estimated Labour and the Tories and under-estimated the Lib Dems and Greens.

[YL]

Only Dublin has any counts declared yet in Ireland, north or south.

Count 7, 4 seats to be elected but the last candidate elected won't take their seat unless/until Brexit happens, quota 72,790

Cuffe (Green) 64,853
Fitzgerald (FG) 59,448
Andrews (FF) 51,997
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 43,400
Boylan (SF) 40,045
Gannon (Soc Dem) 21,002
White (Lab) 18,942
Durkan (FG) 16,733
Brien (PBP) 11,730
Higgins (Ind) 11,434
O'Doherty (Ind) 8,661
Gilroy (Ind) 8,511
Harrold (PBP) 5,607 eliminated

Still quite a lot of eliminations to go.  I assume Cuffe and Fitzgerald will be in and it may be between Daly and Andrews for who is elected third and fourth.

(RTE results link, which covers Northern Ireland as well: https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/#/european )

[YL]

Reports from the count in Northern Ireland suggest that Alliance have taken the UUP seat: 1 Sinn Féin, 1 DUP, 1 Alliance.  But I think it'll be some time before we know officially.

[YL]

Northern Ireland first count was

Anderson (Sinn Féin) 126,951
Dodds (DUP) 124,991
Long (Alliance) 105,928
Eastwood (SDLP) 78,589
Allister (TUV) 62,021
Kennedy (UUP) 53,052
Bailey (Green) 12,471
Hill (UKIP) 5,115
Morrice (Ind) 1,719
McCann (Ind) 948
Bhogal (Con) 662 why do they bother?

Quota 143,112, 3 seats

Awful result for the UUP and rather disappointing for Sinn Féin, stunningly good for Alliance.

It's fairly obvious from that who is going to get elected, but the second count eliminated the bottom five candidates, at which point Kennedy was next out (as I say, an awful result for the UUP) with his transfers electing Dodds.  The third count is

Dodds (DUP) 155,422
Anderson (Sinn Féin) 128,190
Long (Alliance) 122,263
Eastwood (SDLP) 82,101
Allister (TUV) 79,540

So Dodds has a surplus of 12,310 which will presumably put Allister ahead of Eastwood, and Eastwood's transfers will then elect Long and Anderson.

[YL]

We now have stage 4 in Northern Ireland:

Dodds (DUP) elected
Anderson (SF) 128,200.5
Long (Alliance) 123,917
Allister (TUV) 89,854
Eastwood (SDLP) 82413.5 eliminated

Eastwood's transfers will now elect Anderson and Long.  Alliance gain from UUP.

Confirmed: stage 5 is

Dodds already elected
Long 170,370 elected
Anderson 152,436.5 elected
Allister 90,079

Impressive for Long to be elected ahead of Anderson.

[YL]

Only Dublin has any counts declared yet in Ireland, north or south.

Count 7, 4 seats to be elected but the last candidate elected won't take their seat unless/until Brexit happens, quota 72,790

Cuffe (Green) 64,853
Fitzgerald (FG) 59,448
Andrews (FF) 51,997
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 43,400
Boylan (SF) 40,045
Gannon (Soc Dem) 21,002
White (Lab) 18,942
Durkan (FG) 16,733
Brien (PBP) 11,730
Higgins (Ind) 11,434
O'Doherty (Ind) 8,661
Gilroy (Ind) 8,511
Harrold (PBP) 5,607 eliminated

Still quite a lot of eliminations to go.  I assume Cuffe and Fitzgerald will be in and it may be between Daly and Andrews for who is elected third and fourth.

(RTE results link, which covers Northern Ireland as well: https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/#/european )

Now up to 11 counts and still no-one elected.

Cuffe (Green) 69,282
Fitzgerald (FG) 61,528
Andrews (FF) 53,980
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 48,559
Boylan (SF) 42,873
Gannon (SD) 24,051
White (Lab) 20,905
Durkan (FG) 17,480
Brien (PBP) 14,358 eliminated

Cuffe and Fitzgerald should be elected fairly soon now, I would think.  Daly has pulled away a bit from Boylan and narrowed the gap on Andrews.

[YL]

Count 1 in Midlands-North-West (Ireland)

4 seats, quota 118,986

McGuinness (FG) 134,630 elected
Flanagan (Ind) 85,034
Carthy (SF) 77,619
Walsh (FG) 64,500
Casey (Ind) 56,650
McHugh (Green) 51,019
Smith (FF) 42,814
Rabbitte (FF) 30,220
Eames (Ind) 15,991
Hannigan (Lab) 12,378
Brennan (PBP) 8,130
O'Dowd (Renua) 6,897
O'Connor (Ind) 3,132
Mahapatra (Ind) 2,450
Greene (Direct Democracy Ireland) 1,352
Miller (Ind) 1,322
Mulcahy (Ind) 789

This could take some time.

South still doesn't have first count figures.

[YL]

Only Dublin has any counts declared yet in Ireland, north or south.

Count 7, 4 seats to be elected but the last candidate elected won't take their seat unless/until Brexit happens, quota 72,790

Cuffe (Green) 64,853
Fitzgerald (FG) 59,448
Andrews (FF) 51,997
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 43,400
Boylan (SF) 40,045
Gannon (Soc Dem) 21,002
White (Lab) 18,942
Durkan (FG) 16,733
Brien (PBP) 11,730
Higgins (Ind) 11,434
O'Doherty (Ind) 8,661
Gilroy (Ind) 8,511
Harrold (PBP) 5,607 eliminated

Still quite a lot of eliminations to go.  I assume Cuffe and Fitzgerald will be in and it may be between Daly and Andrews for who is elected third and fourth.

(RTE results link, which covers Northern Ireland as well: https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/#/european )

Now up to 11 counts and still no-one elected.

Cuffe (Green) 69,282
Fitzgerald (FG) 61,528
Andrews (FF) 53,980
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 48,559
Boylan (SF) 42,873
Gannon (SD) 24,051
White (Lab) 20,905
Durkan (FG) 17,480
Brien (PBP) 14,358 eliminated

Cuffe and Fitzgerald should be elected fairly soon now, I would think.  Daly has pulled away a bit from Boylan and narrowed the gap on Andrews.

Cuffe made it on Durkan's elimination; Fitzgerald didn't quite, but then did make it on the next count after White was eliminated.  So 1 Green, 1 FG elected, and the count 14 figures are

Cuffe (Green) 73,028 elected
Fitzgerald (FG) 78,580 elected
Andrews (FF) 59,619
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 55,752
Boylan (SF) 46,704
Gannon (Soc Dem) 29,720

Cuffe's and Fitzgerald's surpluses can't save Gannon, so he'll be eliminated next.  I suspect Daly will indeed overtake Andrews to get the third seat, and Andrews will get the possible fourth seat.

[YL]

Ireland's South constituency after 4 counts.

Quota 119,866.  5 seats, but the last elected not to take their seat unless/until Brexit happens.

Kelly (FG) 118,773
Kelleher (FF) 84,238
Wallace (Ind 4 Change) 82,335
Ní Riada (SF) 79,837
O'Sullivan (Green) 76,373
Byrne (FF) 69,316
Clune (FG) 64,763
Doyle (FG) 38,804
Nunan (Lab) 22,251
Wallace (PBP) 15,207
Cahill (Ind) 10,883
O'Flynn (Ind) 9,990
Minehan (Ind) 9,855
Gardner (Ind) 9,436
Heaney (Ind) 7,738
Brennan (Ind) 4,791
O'Loughlin (Identity Ireland) 3,919
Worthington (Ind) 3,552
Fitzgerald (Ind) 3,300
Ryan-Purcell (Ind) 3,067 eliminated

I assume 1 FG, 1 FF, then a four-way battle for two/three seats between SF, Green, Ind 4 Change and a second FG?  Transfers probably favour Green and disfavour SF?

[YL]

Cuffe made it on Durkan's elimination; Fitzgerald didn't quite, but then did make it on the next count after White was eliminated.  So 1 Green, 1 FG elected, and the count 14 figures are

Cuffe (Green) 73,028 elected
Fitzgerald (FG) 78,580 elected
Andrews (FF) 59,619
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 55,752
Boylan (SF) 46,704
Gannon (Soc Dem) 29,720

Cuffe's and Fitzgerald's surpluses can't save Gannon, so he'll be eliminated next.  I suspect Daly will indeed overtake Andrews to get the third seat, and Andrews will get the possible fourth seat.

There is a fuss about this.  There are four seats to be filled, but one of them (the last to be elected) only exists after Brexit.  In a normal four seat STV election, Boylan would be next eliminated after Gannon (almost certainly) and that would just leave four candidates, who would be deemed elected with no more counting needed.  But because the order of election matters, Boylan's transfers could make a difference, and so some are arguing that they should be transferred.  It doesn't seem to be entirely clear what the legal situation is.

[YL]

Cuffe made it on Durkan's elimination; Fitzgerald didn't quite, but then did make it on the next count after White was eliminated.  So 1 Green, 1 FG elected, and the count 14 figures are

Cuffe (Green) 73,028 elected
Fitzgerald (FG) 78,580 elected
Andrews (FF) 59,619
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 55,752
Boylan (SF) 46,704
Gannon (Soc Dem) 29,720

Cuffe's and Fitzgerald's surpluses can't save Gannon, so he'll be eliminated next.  I suspect Daly will indeed overtake Andrews to get the third seat, and Andrews will get the possible fourth seat.

There is a fuss about this.  There are four seats to be filled, but one of them (the last to be elected) only exists after Brexit.  In a normal four seat STV election, Boylan would be next eliminated after Gannon (almost certainly) and that would just leave four candidates, who would be deemed elected with no more counting needed.  But because the order of election matters, Boylan's transfers could make a difference, and so some are arguing that they should be transferred.  It doesn't seem to be entirely clear what the legal situation is.

It's now reported that count 15 has put Daly ahead of Andrews, so this is probably not going to matter, but they are going to transfer Boylan's vote anyway.  (The belief was that if Andrews were still ahead after that count Boylan's transfers might change that.)

So Dublin looks like 1 Green, 1 FG, 1 Ind4Change, with 1 FF to be added if/after Brexit happens.

Midlands-North-West and South counts are still slowly eliminating the also-rans.

[YL]

Ireland's South constituency after 4 counts.

Quota 119,866.  5 seats, but the last elected not to take their seat unless/until Brexit happens.

Kelly (FG) 118,773
Kelleher (FF) 84,238
Wallace (Ind 4 Change) 82,335
Ní Riada (SF) 79,837
O'Sullivan (Green) 76,373
Byrne (FF) 69,316
Clune (FG) 64,763
Doyle (FG) 38,804
Nunan (Lab) 22,251
Wallace (PBP) 15,207
Cahill (Ind) 10,883
O'Flynn (Ind) 9,990
Minehan (Ind) 9,855
Gardner (Ind) 9,436
Heaney (Ind) 7,738
Brennan (Ind) 4,791
O'Loughlin (Identity Ireland) 3,919
Worthington (Ind) 3,552
Fitzgerald (Ind) 3,300
Ryan-Purcell (Ind) 3,067 eliminated

I assume 1 FG, 1 FF, then a four-way battle for two/three seats between SF, Green, Ind 4 Change and a second FG?  Transfers probably favour Green and disfavour SF?

Kelly (FG) was elected on count 9, with the candidates from Heaney downwards now eliminated.  The order of the candidates hasn't changed from above.

Dublin is confirmed: Cuffe (Green), Fitzgerald (FG), Daly (Ind4Change) get the three immediate seats; Andrews (FF) the pending fourth.

[YL]

Ireland's South constituency after 4 counts.

Quota 119,866.  5 seats, but the last elected not to take their seat unless/until Brexit happens.

Kelly (FG) 118,773
Kelleher (FF) 84,238
Wallace (Ind 4 Change) 82,335
Ní Riada (SF) 79,837
O'Sullivan (Green) 76,373
Byrne (FF) 69,316
Clune (FG) 64,763
Doyle (FG) 38,804
Nunan (Lab) 22,251
Wallace (PBP) 15,207
Cahill (Ind) 10,883
O'Flynn (Ind) 9,990
Minehan (Ind) 9,855
Gardner (Ind) 9,436
Heaney (Ind) 7,738
Brennan (Ind) 4,791
O'Loughlin (Identity Ireland) 3,919
Worthington (Ind) 3,552
Fitzgerald (Ind) 3,300
Ryan-Purcell (Ind) 3,067 eliminated

I assume 1 FG, 1 FF, then a four-way battle for two/three seats between SF, Green, Ind 4 Change and a second FG?  Transfers probably favour Green and disfavour SF?

Kelly (FG) was elected on count 9, with the candidates from Heaney downwards now eliminated.  The order of the candidates hasn't changed from above.

After count 12 Wallace has overtaken Kelleher, and the situation is
Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 87,569
Kelleher (FF) 87,036
Ní Riada (SF) 82,933
O'Sullivan (Green) 80,115
Byrne (FF) 72,133
Clune (FG) 67,274
Doyle (FG) 40,014
Nunan (Lab) 23,849
Wallace (PBP) 17,398
Cahill (Ind) 15,466
Minehan (Ind) 12,770 eliminated

My guess is that Wallace (I4C), Kelleher (FF) and Clune (FG) get the next three seats, and that O'Sullivan (Green) gets the Brexit-conditional one.

[YL]

Count 1 in Midlands-North-West (Ireland)

4 seats, quota 118,986

McGuinness (FG) 134,630 elected
Flanagan (Ind) 85,034
Carthy (SF) 77,619
Walsh (FG) 64,500
Casey (Ind) 56,650
McHugh (Green) 51,019
Smith (FF) 42,814
Rabbitte (FF) 30,220
Eames (Ind) 15,991
Hannigan (Lab) 12,378
Brennan (PBP) 8,130
O'Dowd (Renua) 6,897
O'Connor (Ind) 3,132
Mahapatra (Ind) 2,450
Greene (Direct Democracy Ireland) 1,352
Miller (Ind) 1,322
Mulcahy (Ind) 789

This could take some time.

Count 9:

McGuinness (FG) elected and surplus transferred
Flanagan (Ind) 91,747
Carthy (SF) 82,921
Walsh (FG) 74,116
Casey (Ind) 61,616
McHugh (Green) 58,642
Smith (FF) 45,235
Rabbitte (FF) 32,714
Eames (Ind) 20,410 eliminated

This looks like the top four are going to get in, so SF hold one seat.

[YL]

Ireland's South constituency after 4 counts.

Quota 119,866.  5 seats, but the last elected not to take their seat unless/until Brexit happens.

Kelly (FG) 118,773
Kelleher (FF) 84,238
Wallace (Ind 4 Change) 82,335
Ní Riada (SF) 79,837
O'Sullivan (Green) 76,373
Byrne (FF) 69,316
Clune (FG) 64,763
Doyle (FG) 38,804
Nunan (Lab) 22,251
Wallace (PBP) 15,207
Cahill (Ind) 10,883
O'Flynn (Ind) 9,990
Minehan (Ind) 9,855
Gardner (Ind) 9,436
Heaney (Ind) 7,738
Brennan (Ind) 4,791
O'Loughlin (Identity Ireland) 3,919
Worthington (Ind) 3,552
Fitzgerald (Ind) 3,300
Ryan-Purcell (Ind) 3,067 eliminated

I assume 1 FG, 1 FF, then a four-way battle for two/three seats between SF, Green, Ind 4 Change and a second FG?  Transfers probably favour Green and disfavour SF?

Kelly (FG) was elected on count 9, with the candidates from Heaney downwards now eliminated.  The order of the candidates hasn't changed from above.

After count 12 Wallace has overtaken Kelleher, and the situation is
Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 87,569
Kelleher (FF) 87,036
Ní Riada (SF) 82,933
O'Sullivan (Green) 80,115
Byrne (FF) 72,133
Clune (FG) 67,274
Doyle (FG) 40,014
Nunan (Lab) 23,849
Wallace (PBP) 17,398
Cahill (Ind) 15,466
Minehan (Ind) 12,770 eliminated

My guess is that Wallace (I4C), Kelleher (FF) and Clune (FG) get the next three seats, and that O'Sullivan (Green) gets the Brexit-conditional one.

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

[YL]

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

Hmmm...

Count 17

Kelly (FG) elected
Kelleher (FF) 131,652 elected
Wallace (I4C) 109,149
Clune (FG) 97,935
O'Sullivan (Green) 96,095
Ní Riada (SF) 95,573

So FF transfers actually favoured SF over the Greens, and there are more of them to come through Kelleher's surplus (just under 12,000 of them).  I suspect Ní Riada won't quite catch O'Sullivan, but it may be close.

After what happened in Dublin, I presume they will transfer the vote of whoever loses out to decide who is elected last for the Brexit-conditional seat.

[YL]

Count 1 in Midlands-North-West (Ireland)

4 seats, quota 118,986

McGuinness (FG) 134,630 elected
Flanagan (Ind) 85,034
Carthy (SF) 77,619
Walsh (FG) 64,500
Casey (Ind) 56,650
McHugh (Green) 51,019
Smith (FF) 42,814
Rabbitte (FF) 30,220
Eames (Ind) 15,991
Hannigan (Lab) 12,378
Brennan (PBP) 8,130
O'Dowd (Renua) 6,897
O'Connor (Ind) 3,132
Mahapatra (Ind) 2,450
Greene (Direct Democracy Ireland) 1,352
Miller (Ind) 1,322
Mulcahy (Ind) 789

This could take some time.

Count 9:

McGuinness (FG) elected and surplus transferred
Flanagan (Ind) 91,747
Carthy (SF) 82,921
Walsh (FG) 74,116
Casey (Ind) 61,616
McHugh (Green) 58,642
Smith (FF) 45,235
Rabbitte (FF) 32,714
Eames (Ind) 20,410 eliminated

This looks like the top four are going to get in, so SF hold one seat.

This count is now complete; the top four did indeed get in.  There's no Brexit-conditional seat here, so 2 FG, 1 Ind, 1 SF.