Canadian by-elections, 2013

[mileslunn]

I suspect the NDP will take Duncan's riding.  As for London West, that is not exactly NDP friendly, but not hostile either.  In fact at the federal level, the results in London West have usually been almost bang on what the province wide average was.  Certainly the Eastern sections are friendly for the NDP, but the problem is the Western half is quite affluent and if the NDP gets clobbered badly enough them that could hurt them.  Think Toronto Centre which on the surface seems NDP friendly but the inclusion of Rosedale pretty much sinks their chances.

[mileslunn]

Windsor will likely go NDP.  London West leans Liberal, but with the recent revelations on the gas plant deleting of e-mail I would wait until the next batch of polls come out to see if public opinion has moved.  I doubt the NDP now can win it.  They were only the mid 30s due to McGuinty's souring relation with public sector unions which have improved under Wynne never mind Wynne comes from the left of the party.  Had Paputello won then they would probably be doing better as she comes from the right of the party.  The Tories certainly could win there but far from a certainty.  Ottawa South will probably stay Liberal.  It seems being a political town, popular vote is rather consistent there over other places.  Both provincially and federally the Liberals always get at least 40% in this riding, but can never seem to crack the 50% mark whereas the Tories always seem to get in the 30-40% range regardless of their provincewide support.

[mileslunn]

I would say Etobicoke-Lakeshore would go Tory long before it would go NDP although I agree at the moment the Liberals would probably hold it, but it did go Tory provincially and also has in the past such as the federal elections of 1984 and 1988 as well as provincially in both 1995 and 1999.  Also Rob Ford solidly won this area too.  The main problem at the moment is Tim Hudak's personal numbers are horrible and as much as people want government to control spending, I am not so sure people are keen to return to the Common Sense Revolution of the 90s.  In addition Kathleen Wynne is far more liked than McGuinty.  Still I would say in order of winneability here is how I would rank them.

Liberals

1.  Ottawa South (highly likely)
2.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore (likely)
3.  London West (slight edge)
4.  Windsor-Tecumseh (uphill battle)

PCs
1.  London West (slight disadvantage but definitely winneable especially if the NDP splits the left)
2.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore (a longshot, but possible with a strong candidate and strong campaign)
3.  Ottawa South (A win is highly unlikely, but the PCs have a strong base as they will almost certainly get over 30%, but unlikely to crack the 40% mark and not much splitting on the left).
4.  Windsor-Tecumseh (irrelevant, will likely come in third)

NDP
1.  Windsor-Tecumseh (likely and a must win)
2.  London West (Possible, but a long shot)
3.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore (extremely unlikely, will likely come in third again).
4.  Ottawa South (completely irrelevant, will be lucky if they can get over 15%).

[mileslunn]

Scarborough-Guildwood seems pretty safe.  If the Liberals could win it federally under the worst possible conditions I would be a huge upset if either the PCs or NDP won it.  As for choosing Coran in London, this might help unite the left, but it could also push some centrist to the PCs.  Most people don't hate unions like the right does, but they don't want them pulling the strings either.  I've heard the BCTF ads in the last BC election might have actually helped the BC Liberals as some were worried unions would have too much control over the NDP government.

[mileslunn]

Scarborough-Guildwood seems pretty safe.  If the Liberals could win it federally under the worst possible conditions I would be a huge upset if either the PCs or NDP won it. 

Though as I suggested, it was really a Hail-Mary spot polling circumstance that cinched it for the federal Grits--more of a fluke hold, as opposed to, say, Scarborough-Agincourt.

And the winning Grit share in Guildwood was lower than the losing Grit share in its two successive neighbours to the east (Pickering-Scarb E, Ajax-Pickering)

2011 federal election maybe a fluke but right now all polls show the provincial Liberals polling better than the 25% the federal Liberals got and likewise no poll shows the PCs anywhere near the 44% the federal Conservatives got in Ontario.  The NDP is fairly close but they lost this by 10% last federal election while the Tories by only 2% so unless the NDP do significantly better than they did federally or the PCs get around 45% provincewide or higher, this should stay Liberal.

[mileslunn]

I doubt the NDP will come in second in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, but considering Tory support is quite soft here, a poor showing could be a bad sign for them.  Mulroney in 1984 and 1988, Harris in both 1995 and 1999 and Harper in 2011 won here.  Also Hudak in 2011 did worse than John Tory did in this riding.  Realistically London West is probably the only one they have a decent shot at and even that is far from certain.  I think the problem with Hudak is he comes across as too much of Harris II and there are lots of people who think Harris was worse than McGuinty.  Yes he didn't spend as much, but I've generally found its much easier to expand than cut the size of government.  Also Ontario has a long history of going opposites federally so I think if the Liberals or NDP win next federal election, that will be well for the provincial Tories and likewise as long as the Tories are in power in Ottawa, the provincial Liberals should remain competitive.

[mileslunn]

The PCs nominated weak candidates in both Scarborough-Guildwood and Etobicoke-Lakeshore back in the winter when they thought an election was imminent. i just read that they are getting both of them to quit and make way for stronger candidates and in EL - Ford's number one ally (apart from his brother) Doug Holyday - might run. We could have two Ford loyal city councillors duking it out - Milczyn for the Liberals and Holyday for the PCs and the NDP left as the only alternative for anyone who disapproves of Ford!

Rob Ford is fairly popular in Etobicoke so I doubt the NDP could win off the anti-Ford vote.  North York and Etobicoke are the two former municipalities where his approval rating is still positive.

[mileslunn]

Rob Ford is fairly popular in Etobicoke so I doubt the NDP could win off the anti-Ford vote.  North York and Etobicoke are the two former municipalities where his approval rating is still positive.

Depends which approval rating polls you go by.  There are some which have shown Scarborough more in the Ford camp than either Etobicoke or N York.

And besides, being more populist than "conservative" per se, Ford's actual following is a funny thing--otherwise, the Tories wouldn't have been provincially shut out of the 416 in 2011.  And on top of that, if Etobicoke was so cut'n'dried Ford Nation, the Liberals wouldn't have had the plurality across its three ridings federally in '11...

Most polls show Ford strongest in North York and Etobicoke, not Scarborough, although Scarborough did go mostly for Ford.  You are right Ford is a populist as well as it seems he won big amongst the immigrant community while the federal Tories did okay here and provincial Tories horrible. Its true though Ford maybe strongest in Etobicoke North which ironically is the least conservative of the Etobicoke ridings.  Although he did win all three of those in municipal elections.  Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence were the only federal Tory ridings he struggled in which are fairly wealthy but largely white.  It appears along the subway line which is where the wealthiest areas are, his showing was not great while the federal Tories were strongest here.

[mileslunn]

Disgusting.

That is proving than the government and railway companies are in the same bed and than Harper government is fully responsible for Lac-Mégantic accident.

They are cozy with the railway industry.

Not all railway companies are run by greedy CEOs.  The one who ran MMA has a bad track record and you will find those type in any industry.  Likewise even under state ownership cannot prevent accidents, after all the railway in Spain was state owned.  Essentially, like any industry you get a mix of CEOs and both state and private ownership have their advantages and disadvantages.

[mileslunn]

In terms of each one here are my thoughts

Bourassa - Solid Liberal

The Trudeau honeymoon is wearing off but not fully so while the NDP may very well take this in 2015 at the moment I suspect the Liberals should hold this fairly easily.  The BQ only won this once in 1993 and it was a lot more Francophone than today.  The Tories will likely get in single digits here.  It did however go PC in 1988, but off course most of Quebec did so not a relevant comparison.

Toronto Centre - Solid Liberal

The Liberals will win this by being competitive throughout the riding.  The Tories do well in Rosedale but will get clobbered in Cabbagetown and Regent Park, while the NDP should win those two, but get clobbered in Rosedale.  Why this is attractive for the NDP is under the new boundaries this riding may be far more favourable, especially if Rosedale is lopped off so getting a list of identified supporters can give the candidate a leg up in 2015.  The Tories aren't relative here although they probably will get over 10%.  Interestingly enough this went PC in the 70s and 80s but that was when they were far more Red Tory than today.  I somehow doubt David Crombie would be too comfortable with today's Tories.

Provencher - Solidly Tory

This was one of 18 ridings where the Tories cracked the 70% mark, so enough said.

Brandon-Souris - Solidly Tory

The NDP could do quite well in Brandon, but the problem is half the riding's population lives in the rural areas and the Tories tend to pile up massive majorities in those areas whereas even if the NDP wins the Brandon polls it won't be by a big margin.  Also with the Justin Trudeau honeymoon still winding down, I suspect the Liberals will do better than in 2011 although still come in third nonetheless.

[mileslunn]

Interestingly enough, I should add Provencher did go Liberal as recently as 1997, but considering they got in single digits last time around, I don't see this swinging back to them anytime soon.  Brandon-Souris went Liberal in 1993, but that was more due to the implosion of the PCs and the fact the Reform Party at that time was only really strong in BC and Alberta.  It did however go PC in 1997 and 2000 rather than the Reform/Alliance but that was mostly due to the fact the candidate was Rick Borotsik a former mayor of Brandon.  Essentially he got many of the moderate Reformers as well as many Liberals strategically voted for him to keep the Reform/Alliance out.