CT Redistricting 2020

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
R+4 probably goes narrowly to Biden, tossup.

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

LOL you are wrong on both counts.  The current CT-5 purposefully takes in blue Hartford precincts to make it more Dem and Courtney doesn't represent CT-5

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

LOL you are wrong on both counts.  The current CT-5 purposefully takes in blue Hartford precincts to make it more Dem and Courtney doesn't represent CT-5

It doesn't take Hartford but clearly has a gerrymandered arm to take New Britain.

Yeah, no dispute there whatsoever.
New Britain's position in the 5th is an artifact from when Nancy L. Johnson, the former Republican congresswoman (served 1985-2007) was in the district. She won New Britain almost every election, and insisted it be added in the new 5th; it voted against her in 2004 and in 2006 helped send her into retirement.

After she left the scene, New Britain now became sort of a firewall territory for Dems, helping ensure they would win any close races. In 2012 Liz Esty narrowly won over Andrew Roraback partially due to its inclusion, and in the 2010s New Britain's role has mainly been to keep the CD in the Dem column. Democrats fought tooth and nail to keep it in the 5th in 2011-2012, and they were correct to think that its inclusion in CT-05 would be critical.

I don't see them changing their thinking much in this department. New Britain, despite its popular GOP mayor and GOP control of the organs of local govt there, still gives Dem outsize margins on federal level. In 2020, New Britain gave Biden a more than 2-to-1 raw margin, and over 8,000 vote plurality, out of slightly over 25k votes cast. The arm to New Britain started off an incumbent dummymander, and now is a simple partisan gerrymander.
The environment changes, and the parties, but the lines remain the same, for differing reasons.

well removing NB from CT-5 could be a concession R's extract.  The result wouldn't be an R gerrymander, just a fair map.