Washingtonexaminer: Youngkin +4

[Skill and Chance]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

[Skill and Chance]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now. 

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's slightly more likely than not, not a sure thing!  Even so, McAuliffe +5 in Loudoun still means a certain loss statewide.   

[Skill and Chance]

Ayala and Herring running ahead of McAufflie is all but certain now. lol

Will be interesting to see if it's a Republican sweep or if it's a Youngkin-as-JBE situation where everything else is totally disconnected from the Gov topline.