Washingtonexaminer: Youngkin +4

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1453843572751540228?s=20

[Pollster]

This is an internal for the Winsome Sears campaign.

[wbrocks67]

This is an internal for the Winsome Sears campaign.

+ a lot of interesting things here-

Princess Blanding at 5%
Herring and Ayala only down 1 while T-Mac down 4
Biden's approval not great (-9) but not as bad as Fox poll

If Winsome Sears's own internal only has her up 1 on Ayala....

[Pericles]

What is a coefficient poll?

[Xing]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

[Skill and Chance]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

[Xing]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

That's far from the only reason why education is at the forefront of this race, though.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

What is the "this"?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's certainly more reasonable in terms of margin than the Fox poll, but still just as horrifying.

[Skill and Chance]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now. 

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now. 

T-Mac will easily win Loudoun county.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now. 

I’m not sure how that means Youngkin will win Loudon…

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now. 

I’m not sure how that means Youngkin will win Loudon…

People, even educated Northern Virginia suburbanites are still so stupid that I can't put it past them anymore to assume that somehow there is a zombie-like outbreak of trans teens raping their kids while in school. People buy that s*** these days. People like that need to be Thanos-snapped out of existence.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now. 

I’m not sure how that means Youngkin will win Loudon…

People, even educated Northern Virginia suburbanites are still so stupid that I can't put it past them anymore to assume that somehow there is a zombie-like outbreak of trans teens raping their kids while in school. People buy that s*** these days. People like that need to be Thanos-snapped out of existence.

Ok, but I still don’t understand how that means Youngkin will win Loudon.

[Mr. Reactionary]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.   

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now. 

I’m not sure how that means Youngkin will win Loudon…

People, even educated Northern Virginia suburbanites are still so stupid that I can't put it past them anymore to assume that somehow there is a zombie-like outbreak of trans teens raping their kids while in school. People buy that s*** these days. People like that need to be Thanos-snapped out of existence.

Lol. "If you dont vote Dem you are stupid!" Great closing pitch.

[TodayJunior]

This is a Republican internal. Please calm down.
The R’s aren’t winning VA.

[Chips]

Hmm. I'm not sure this is enough to convince me that Virginia is a toss-up but I definitely think this race is looking quite a bit more like 2013 than 2017 now.

[Chips]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.  

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now.  

I’m not sure how that means Youngkin will win Loudon…

Playing devil's advocate here but if that Fox News poll of Youngkin 53-45 is SOMEHOW accurate, it might open the door for him in Loudoun or at least make it close.

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's slightly more likely than not, not a sure thing!  Even so, McAuliffe +5 in Loudoun still means a certain loss statewide.   

[jamestroll]

Ayala and Herring running ahead of McAufflie is all but certain now. lol

[RINO Tom]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.  

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now.  

I’m not sure how that means Youngkin will win Loudon…

People, even educated Northern Virginia suburbanites are still so stupid that I can't put it past them anymore to assume that somehow there is a zombie-like outbreak of trans teens raping their kids while in school. People buy that s*** these days. People like that need to be Thanos-snapped out of existence.

Along with that creepy rapist freak and all the low lifes who covered it up.

[jamestroll]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

There's no expertise needed to understand covering up rape for ideological reasons.  That's the deciding factor here.  McAuliffe would still be narrowly ahead with just the debate comment.  Now it's a Vitter 2015 or Roy Moore 2017 style situation.

*There's no evidence McAuliffe was personally involved, but he made his entire campaign about how important it was to trust the school boards and then this dropped.  

What is the "this"?

Proof that the Loudoun County school board covered up a rape, then quietly transferred the rapist to another school where he was allowed to attend normally and sexually assaulted another girl.  Also, the rapist was a biological male wearing a skirt.

Youngkin is probably going to win Loudoun County now.  

I’m not sure how that means Youngkin will win Loudon…

People, even educated Northern Virginia suburbanites are still so stupid that I can't put it past them anymore to assume that somehow there is a zombie-like outbreak of trans teens raping their kids while in school. People buy that s*** these days. People like that need to be Thanos-snapped out of existence.

Along with that creepy rapist freak and all the low lifes who covered it up.

I don't give a  about the CRT stuff. It is literally fake news.

But the sexual assaults are real! and this sets back the transgender rights movement in Virginia for a long long time.

[Skill and Chance]

Ayala and Herring running ahead of McAufflie is all but certain now. lol

Will be interesting to see if it's a Republican sweep or if it's a Youngkin-as-JBE situation where everything else is totally disconnected from the Gov topline.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

What are you even referring to here? This is quite a condescending way to dismiss just about anybody who has legitimate concerns with their kids' public education (which gets funded by their taxes).

[wbrocks67]

I'll acknowledge that there does seem to be movement toward Youngkin (though exaggerated), even if this is just due to people with no expertise in education thinking they understand it better than education professionals. I'll move this to Lean D for now, and modify my prediction to McAuliffe +3.5, but I'll note that I did the same thing in 2017. I'll be mad if my prediction is off by the same amount again.

What are you even referring to here? This is quite a condescending way to dismiss just about anybody who has legitimate concerns with their kids' public education (which gets funded by their taxes).

Eh, you're being VERY generous here. The issue at hand is not at all about "parents who have legitimate concerns with their kids public education" considering most of the issues talked about in this race (like CRT) are nonexistent and is all about the culture war. This all started because nutjob parents going to school board meetings wanted to ban masks, books, etc. These are not people in good faith.

If parents have that much of a "concern" about their kids education where they can't trust the teachers to teach, then put your kids in homeschool.