Obligatory -
Exactly what I expected.
Vance is going to underperform Trump by 5 in a year where polling is 9 points more favorable to R's compared to 2020. Here's some other things that "high quality" polls will likely show:
- Barnes/Lasry will lead Johnson in WI
- Fetterman will lead Oz in PA
- Kelly will lead R's in AZ
- R's will continue to hold miniscule 1-2 point lead in generic ballot
By election time, many people will be convinced the Democrats are favorites to hold the Senate and R's will get no more than 230 House seats. And the narrative will be because R's are "too extreme" while Dems all have good moderate candidates.
