Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Bandit3 the Worker]

People won't use Targoz polls but they use Emerson?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Iowa did not just trend 19 points to the left.

Kentucky just did, so it may have.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't think anyone buys the whole Big Lie that the economy is any damn good.

The claim that we have the best economy in 50 years is downright laughable.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Congressional Democrats though are improving in the polls.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How will trump being officially impeached affect his approval ratings?

Impeachment will destroy his ratings.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

Wasn't this during a shutdown?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Dec. 14-17, 1500 adults including 1164 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

Impeach Trump? Yes 47 (+2), No 39 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (+3), No 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Impeach Trump? Yes 50 (+2), No 43 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 50 (+3), No 42 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 40 (nc)

So much for the big, bright Trump bump balloon that was bobbing along the American skyline in recent days.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

To be frank, I think most people don't give a flying fez about the stock market.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What is it that Ohioans like about him?

Demographics. Ohio has a higher concentration of non-college educated White people and White working class voters (both groups have trended toward the GOP nationwide) and the big cities of Ohio (Columbus, Cleveland & Cincinnati) are not enough to outweigh the rural & exurban areas of Ohio.

I'm old enough to remember when Cincinnati was America's right-wing dumping ground. Now it's a model of progress.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

JAN 16-29, 2020
B
Gallup
1,033 A



Approve 49 (+5 since JAN 2-15)
Disapprove 50 (-3)



Gallup's poll is a bit outdated, but >>>

The Jan. 16-29 poll was conducted in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president's acquittal. The poll finds 52% of Americans in favor of acquitting Trump and 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

Acquit 52%
Remove 46%

This is really unreliable.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The economy is terrible, so there's really no excuse.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Well, those 2 new polls just busted Gallup's bubble all over its face.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

At this point, the only major candidate Trump would beat is "Meow Mix Mike" Bloomberg.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Furthermore, looking at each of the past 6 president's net approval vs. Trump's at this stage in their presidencies...

Obama net approval at this stage: +1.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George W. Bush's net approval: +4.2 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Bill Clinton's net approval: +6.7 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

George H. W. Bush's net approval: -3.8 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Ronald Reagan's net approval: +19.3 (won re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Jimmy Carter's net approval: +21.9 (lost re-election)
Trump's today: -6.7

Most of these (except Carter in '80) are actually somewhat close to the margin of victory (or loss) in the election.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The economy right now stinks.

I'm sick of the media lying about how we have the best unemployment rate in 50 years.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's a shame Bernie had to drop out, considering all the polls that had him doing better than Biden against Trump.