Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[wbrocks67]

Grinnell College National Poll, March 27-30

Is this a source of COVID-19 information you completely trust, mostly trust, mostly distrust or completely distrust?

Donald Trump

Completely trust: 16%
Mostly trust: 30%
Mostly distrust: 18%
Completely distrust: 32%

More people distrust the president than trust him in a time of crisis.

https://www.grinnell.edu/news/americans-showing-resolve-through-covid-19-crisis

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, despite Trump's approval rating in the Grinnell poll be an overall 48/45, the generic congressional ballot for 2020 is.... D+9 (50/41)

[pbrower2a]

Worth noting that the Fox poll with Trump at a record 48/51 approval has now released their GE matchup numbers:

Biden 49, Trump 40

Also:

The race remains a nine-point advantage for Biden over Trump when looking only at those voters extremely interested in the election (52-43 percent) and the former vice president has an eight-point edge in battleground states (48-40 percent).

However, Biden’s advantage grows to 25 points, 57-32 percent, in close counties (where Hillary Clinton and Trump were within 10 points in 2016).

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-wins-high-marks-for-female-vp-pledge

Sounds like a junk poll. Don't see how it's possible for an incumbent president to be at 48 percent approval and only polling 40 percent in a GE matchup.

They like what he has done so far but are scared of what follows?

It just usually doesn't work like that and certainly not by that big of a margin. Incumbent presidents usually run ahead of their approval ratings which is why 45 percent approval is the generally accepted threshold for reelection.

45% approval is a point from which one can win re-election as Governor or Senator, and as President (assuming that running for re-election for President is like running for re-election to gubernatorial office or a Senate seat) with a spirited and competent campaign able to reach enough of the undecided -- if one can go from 45% approval to 50% of the vote.

But one must make progress. Such requires a spirited, competent campaign capable of assuaging doubts and fears. Obama succeeded well at that, getting about the maximum of 6% that an astute and competent campaigner can get. Note well that Obama never faced the overpowering contempt that Trump has experienced a shown in some of his horrid disapproval numbers. Note that Trump heavily touted the levels of securities prices as evidence of his competence as a steward of prosperity. OK, Obama never endured a stock market crash and did not have a plague on the scale of CORVID-19 that some say could be as devastating to American lives as was at the most optimistic that I can give (the combat deaths of the Vietnam War) to the worst (the American Civil War, Union and Confederate tolls together).

There is little less heroic and meaningful in life than death from a contagious disease. Recognizing that there were people who got AIDS for reasons other than IV drug use or reckless sexuality, most people who died of AIDS were schmucks who experienced unintended consequences of their bad behavior. Millions of Americans are finding that they must put up with lonely, dreary, boring existence for a few months so that they can avoid dying of respiratory diseases rare in the First World (except among people dying of other causes).  I can think of some reinforcement, especially in that there are few places to go now worth going to because they are closed. Maybe one of the Great Lakes shores before summer, but if you know what Michigan is like in the early spring those places are still out of season.

I certainly do not want to use any bus, train, or airliner in which the Angel of Death is a passenger not paying a fare.

Anyone who goes to Spring Break in Florida is a schmuck.     

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

MAR 27-30, 2020
A+
Selzer & Co.
1,009 A
777 LV
https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2020-03/GCNP%20April%202020%20Toplines%20and%20Methodology.pdf

All Adults:
48 (+8 since OCT 17-23)
45 (-5)

Economy
54 (+4)
36 (-3)

Corona:
50
43

Likely Voters:
48 (+5)
48 (-3)

H2H, Biden +4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Meanwhile, despite Trump's approval rating in the Grinnell poll be an overall 48/45, the generic congressional ballot for 2020 is.... D+9 (50/41)

They wont publish state by state polls and Senate polls which is suspect. The college polls are meaningless

[Person Man]

MAR 27-30, 2020
A+
Selzer & Co.
1,009 A
777 LV
https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2020-03/GCNP%20April%202020%20Toplines%20and%20Methodology.pdf

All Adults:
48 (+8 since OCT 17-23)
45 (-5)

Economy
54 (+4)
36 (-3)

Corona:
50
43

Likely Voters:
48 (+5)
48 (-3)

H2H, Biden +4

Yet Congressional Republicans are getting obliterated. What's going on? Is this evidence that the demise of split ticket voting was premature and that though there are no right-of-center Democrats left in Congress, that there will be a large amount of "Trump Democrats" who keep the Senate Competitive (potentially D-leaning in 2022) and both Pelosi and Trump entrenched? Or it could just be that no one is paying attention to Trump or anyone for that matter because of obvious reasons and all the Trump-Pelosi and Romney-Clinton people just shrug and say "he's our president. he's trying" instead of saying "we're making money, but he's a degenerate".

[pbrower2a]

Quippiniac poll, Iowa.

Trump approval 60%, disapproval 43%. Trump 54, Biden 48.

University of Indianapolis, Inniada:

Trump approval 54%, disapproval 43%. Vote 57 Trump, 42 Biden

Loof-Lipra polls, Utah:

Romney 53%, Trump 32% Biden who cares?

New Mexico

Biden 62%, Trump 40%

Ohio

46% Trump, 49% Biden. DeWine approval 58%


Michigan

Detroit Tigers approve 22%, disapprove 71%

[Bidenworth2020]

Quippiniac poll, Iowa.

Trump approval 60%, disapproval 43%. Trump 54, Biden 48.

University of Indianapolis, Inniada:

Trump approval 54%, disapproval 43%. Vote 57 Trump, 42 Biden

Loof-Lipra polls, Utah:

Romney 53%, Trump 32% Biden who cares?

New Mexico

Biden 62%, Trump 40%

Ohio

46% Trump, 49% Biden. DeWine approval 58%


Michigan

Detroit Tigers approve 22%, disapprove 71%

Is this April Fools?

[pbrower2a]

Quippiniac poll, Iowa.

Trump approval 60%, disapproval 43%. Trump 54, Biden 48.

University of Indianapolis, Inniada:

Trump approval 54%, disapproval 43%. Vote 57 Trump, 42 Biden

Loof-Lipra polls, Utah:

Romney 53%, Trump 32% Biden who cares?

New Mexico

Biden 62%, Trump 40%

Ohio

46% Trump, 49% Biden. DeWine approval 58%


Michigan

Detroit Tigers approve 22%, disapprove 71%

Is this April Fools?

Well. Quinnipiac polls usually come out today...

[Tintrlvr]

MAR 27-30, 2020
A+
Selzer & Co.
1,009 A
777 LV
https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2020-03/GCNP%20April%202020%20Toplines%20and%20Methodology.pdf

All Adults:
48 (+8 since OCT 17-23)
45 (-5)

Economy
54 (+4)
36 (-3)

Corona:
50
43

Likely Voters:
48 (+5)
48 (-3)

H2H, Biden +4

Yet Congressional Republicans are getting obliterated. What's going on? Is this evidence that the demise of split ticket voting was premature and that though there are no right-of-center Democrats left in Congress, that there will be a large amount of "Trump Democrats" who keep the Senate Competitive (potentially D-leaning in 2022) and both Pelosi and Trump entrenched? Or it could just be that no one is paying attention to Trump or anyone for that matter because of obvious reasons and all the Trump-Pelosi and Romney-Clinton people just shrug and say "he's our president. he's trying" instead of saying "we're making money, but he's a degenerate".

It seems that there is a considerable group of voters who actually don't particularly like Trump and don't currently plan to vote for him or for other Republicans but believe that they should approve of a leader (maybe any leader) in a crisis, at least at the beginning. Maybe that isn't especially surprising; we'll see what happens as the crisis continues and worsens. Those voters could decide that they don't approve of Trump's handling of the crisis anymore, or they could decide that they do approve and will actually vote for him.

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1245328063895932929

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1245366181546131462?s=21

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1245374265635061762

[Brittain33]

MAR 27-30, 2020
A+
Selzer & Co.
1,009 A
777 LV
https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2020-03/GCNP%20April%202020%20Toplines%20and%20Methodology.pdf

Corona:
50
43

Likely Voters:
48 (+5)
48 (-3)

Wow, even Coronavirus has a higher approval rating than Trump! I knew he was behind syphillis and cockroaches, but this is new.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump has expended his ceiling. Lovely stuff.

[pbrower2a]

Starting over. We have just gone through some political chaos from the stock market crash (it is a crash, and it may not be through) and of course the COVID-19 plague with the President's erratic responses.  Things could get worse for the President, and here's a poll of Pennsylvania (PPP) as the start of the new round of polling on my map.

This is not April fool stuff here.

Trump: approve 45-disapprove 51 

Trump:

approval 45% or less and disapproval over 50% (likely Biden)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know eventhough www.electionprojection.com has an T bias, they keep up Trump's approvals as well, and they are saying it's a 279 EC map

[pbrower2a]

If Trump can keep his newfound popularity, I think the election is good as his. The real danger is that the popularity is fleeting or they are composed of Democrats who approve of Trump temporarily but intend to vote for Biden.

At the moment, it looks like that the latter case is true but it's also true we've seen polling showing a closer race. FTW, I think Biden's a terrible candidate, but objectively, he's held leads over Trump consistently, so we will see if the situation holds.

What newfound popularity? Democratic governors, including Tony Evers (hint to what follows), get better marks than Trump for handling CORVID-19.

Marquette University Law School, Wisconsin:

approval 48%, disapproval 49% --- Biden has a lead of 3%.

 https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

You know eventhough www.electionprojection.com has an T bias, they keep up Trump's approvals as well, and they are saying it's a 279 EC map

 

At this point, 279 looks like the minimum for Biden.

And for a great non-mystery, 55 electoral votes ring in.

Biden - 67
Trump - 29

Trump's approval is at 29%.

962 V, conducted 3/28-3/29

https://www.strother-nuckels.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CaliforniaResults1.pdf

Disapproval is at 64%.

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, March 26-29, 1057 adults (prior poll Feb. 13-16)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

For coronavirus outbreak: Approve 44, Disapprove 55

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 29-31, 1500 adults including 1194 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 46 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-4)


RV:

Approve 47 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-3)

2020 (RV only):
Generic D 45 (-2), Trump 42 (+1)
Biden 46 (nc), Trump 42 (nc)
Sanders 45 (-1), Trump 44 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+1), R 39 (+1)

[Bidenworth2020]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 29-31, 1500 adults including 1194 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 46 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-4)


RV:

Approve 47 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-3)

2020 (RV only):
Generic D 45 (-2), Trump 42 (+1)
Biden 46 (nc), Trump 42 (nc)
Sanders 45 (-1), Trump 44 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+1), R 39 (+1)

Is there any reason for this tracking poll being in constant flux?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 29-31, 1500 adults including 1194 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 46 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-4)


RV:

Approve 47 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-3)

2020 (RV only):
Generic D 45 (-2), Trump 42 (+1)
Biden 46 (nc), Trump 42 (nc)
Sanders 45 (-1), Trump 44 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+1), R 39 (+1)

Is there any reason for this tracking poll being in constant flux?

Normal variation.  Everything except the changes in strong disapproval is within the margin of error.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A couple of state polls:


California: PPP, March 28-29, 962 voters

Approve 29
Disapprove 64

Biden 67, Trump 29


Wisconsin: Marquette Law, March 24-29, 813 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 42

Biden 48, Trump 45
Trump 47, Sanders 45

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 29-31, 1500 adults including 1194 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 46 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-4)


RV:

Approve 47 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-3)

2020 (RV only):
Generic D 45 (-2), Trump 42 (+1)
Biden 46 (nc), Trump 42 (nc)
Sanders 45 (-1), Trump 44 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+1), R 39 (+1)

You forgot Corona!

34. Trump Coronavirus Job Handling

Alla Adults
50 (+1)
42 (-2)

Registered Voters
50 (+2)
46 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1245405292818464773