Iran is still on only its 2nd Supreme Leader, Khamenei since ‘89. The future?

[Blue3]

The Islamic Republic of Iran, around for 45 years, has only had two Supreme Leaders. Its charismatic  founder, and the more technocratic and subtle Khamanei for the last 35 years since 1989.

He’s 84 now, so he could still live a while longer, but we are definitely closer to the end of his reign than its beginning.

His election was also interesting, since they had to modify the constitution since Khamenei was not an ayatollah but a former elected president.

The Islamic Republic has a lot of separation of powers, with checks and balances, built into it. But the Supreme Leader is definitely a central figure, even if not the all-powerful dictator figure that the title implies.

Whenever he does pass away, we will probably have the biggest opportunity for a shift in Iran.



How do we think the transition will go?

Is there a short-list of who’s most likely to be elected by the Assembly of Constitutional Experts?

Is it likely to be someone similar in age, a caretaker, or someone more from Generation X/Y, who could connect better to the population since
25% of Iran’s population is under the age of 15.
Only 7% of Iran’s population is over the age of 65.
The median age is 31, with a supermajority of the country younger than 40.

What changes are we likely to expect?

[Blue3]

Khamenei wants the current President, Ebrahim Raisi, to succeed him

Interesting. This one has been much more quiet so far. Ahmadinejad was crazy and militant, and Rouhani was much more pro-Western and diplomatic. I haven’t heard anything about Raisi.

I do also wonder if he might change his mind, or if the assembly would definitely feel obliged to go with his choice.

[Blue3]

While Hannity makes him out to be some Al Baghdadi-like irrational actor, it is worth remembering that this Ayatollah if anything held Ahmadinejad on a tight leash and has intervened politically to keep him out of office. That’s always stuck with me.

Ofc besides his obviously odious anti-Jew rhetoric, I always thought Ahmadinejad (from their perspective) was a strong solid leader. So if the Ayatollah wants him out of power, it must mean he’s relatively pragmatic instead of being some fanatical zealot.

I don't think he's an ayatollah, just like how Khamenei isn't/wasn't an ayatollah.