Congressional Leadership Megathread - McCarthy elected Speaker after 15 ballots, 4 days

[Antonio the Sixth]

If McCarthy agrees to always put continuing resolutions and debt limit increases up for a vote, that's a major concession. Basically the only thing a GOP-controlled House can do is obstruct must-pass legislation to blackmail Biden into making concessions. Take that leverage away, and Speaker McCarthy is basically a placeholder. I'd say it's a deal worth taking.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If McCarthy agrees to always put continuing resolutions and debt limit increases up for a vote, that's a major concession. Basically the only thing a GOP-controlled House can do is obstruct must-pass legislation to blackmail Biden into making concessions. Take that leverage away, and Speaker McCarthy is basically a placeholder. I'd say it's a deal worth taking.

Why would you take him at his word?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If McCarthy agrees to always put continuing resolutions and debt limit increases up for a vote, that's a major concession. Basically the only thing a GOP-controlled House can do is obstruct must-pass legislation to blackmail Biden into making concessions. Take that leverage away, and Speaker McCarthy is basically a placeholder. I'd say it's a deal worth taking.

Why would you take him at his word?

You can always force a change if something goes wrong. Jeffries calls a motion to vacate the chair, and the Ds and Freedom Caucus unite to oust McCarthy. Electing a new Speaker would be an entirely separate vote.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Some ideas on how McCarthy could win democratic votes:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/3760075-a-courageous-way-for-mccarthy-to-secure-the-speakership-and-benefit-the-country/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwjH2uW-x977AhVeg4kEHYYjBLkQFnoECBAQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2jyksJPLEAtwz5_uDtch92

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus.  

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

It’s not our job to save Republicans from their own incompetence.  If they can’t agree on a Speaker after 250 ballots, that’s their problem and voters certainly won’t blame Democrats for it.  Anyone who doesn’t hold the line should be cast out of the caucus like a leper, stripped of all committee assignments, and primaried.

Problem is, some of those problem solver type districts (Gottheimer, Craig, Slotkin, Spanberger, Cartwright, Golden) would elect a Republican over a dedicated liberal, and democrats need those seats for a majority.

[Torie]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus.  

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

It’s not our job to save Republicans from their own incompetence.  If they can’t agree on a Speaker after 250 ballots, that’s their problem and voters certainly won’t blame Democrats for it.  Anyone who doesn’t hold the line should be cast out of the caucus like a leper, stripped of all committee assignments, and primaried.

If Republicans need our help electing a Speaker, let them vote for Jeffries.  Some Problem Starters ghoul like Josh Gottheimer being a committee chair or even Speaker is no better than having Jim Jordan or Kevin McCarthy in the role.  And Republicans can negotiate directly with the Democratic Caucus if they think they have a proposal that will make bailing them out worthwhile.

Thank you for your opinion. I am quite certain it won't work out that way (the most likely scenario is that at some point team Biggs will fold like a cheap suit). But sure, there will be a lot of back channel negotiations among various factions, if the Pubs can't round up 218 votes on their side, or whatever proves to be the majority number. Odds are, in the quite unlikely scenario where McCarthy does not have the votes, that a few Dems will vote for McCarthy whether you like it or not, in exchange for accommodations to the Dem side on various matters. The alternative is the House shuts down, if somebody does not blink.

Anyway, what you or I would prefer, is often not what happens. But then you already knew that. Cheers.

Here is a wapo article that is not behind a paywall to throw on the pile. And I read an editorial somewhere about sharing power as a way out.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/02/who-could-be-speaker-if-not-kevin-mccarthy/

Oh one other thing is the Jeffries is way too smart to go for being elected Speaker with Pub votes, subject to being deposed at any time. That is most certainly not going to happen, and I have nothing by anybody anywhere that it might happen. So if it does, accept your accolades!

[Torie]

Some ideas on how McCarthy could win democratic votes:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/3760075-a-courageous-way-for-mccarthy-to-secure-the-speakership-and-benefit-the-country/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwjH2uW-x977AhVeg4kEHYYjBLkQFnoECBAQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2jyksJPLEAtwz5_uDtch92

That is the article I was looking for that I read but could not find again. That isn't going to happen either, but in an alternative universe with which I would find favor, it should.

[Spectator]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus.  

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

It’s not our job to save Republicans from their own incompetence.  If they can’t agree on a Speaker after 250 ballots, that’s their problem and voters certainly won’t blame Democrats for it.  Anyone who doesn’t hold the line should be cast out of the caucus like a leper, stripped of all committee assignments, and primaried.

Problem is, some of those problem solver type districts (Gottheimer, Craig, Slotkin, Spanberger, Cartwright, Golden) would elect a Republican over a dedicated liberal, and democrats need those seats for a majority.

This does not pass the smell test. What on earth incentive is there for any of these people to offer their vote for McCarthy? They wouldn't gain any favor among any voters back in their districts from doing so.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus.  

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

It’s not our job to save Republicans from their own incompetence.  If they can’t agree on a Speaker after 250 ballots, that’s their problem and voters certainly won’t blame Democrats for it.  Anyone who doesn’t hold the line should be cast out of the caucus like a leper, stripped of all committee assignments, and primaried.

Problem is, some of those problem solver type districts (Gottheimer, Craig, Slotkin, Spanberger, Cartwright, Golden) would elect a Republican over a dedicated liberal, and democrats need those seats for a majority.

This does not pass the smell test. What on earth incentive is there for any of these people to offer their vote for McCarthy? They wouldn't gain any favor among any voters back in their districts from doing so.

He'll dole out a few committee Chairmanships to moderate Dems, sign a pledge to make their amendments in order and give them earmarks, and pledge to allow the House to vote on keeping government open and raising the debt ceiling. Also, it might not even be McCarthy- Speaker Fred Upton, perhaps?

[Not Me, Us]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus.  

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

It’s not our job to save Republicans from their own incompetence.  If they can’t agree on a Speaker after 250 ballots, that’s their problem and voters certainly won’t blame Democrats for it.  Anyone who doesn’t hold the line should be cast out of the caucus like a leper, stripped of all committee assignments, and primaried.

Problem is, some of those problem solver type districts (Gottheimer, Craig, Slotkin, Spanberger, Cartwright, Golden) would elect a Republican over a dedicated liberal, and democrats need those seats for a majority.

That really isn't necessarily true. Gottheimer, Spanberger, and Golden are obviously very moderate, but Craig and Slotkin are both pretty much mainstream Dems, and Cartwright is actually quite progressive. You don't have to be a Republican-lite to win in a lot of these districts.

[Spectator]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus.  

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

It’s not our job to save Republicans from their own incompetence.  If they can’t agree on a Speaker after 250 ballots, that’s their problem and voters certainly won’t blame Democrats for it.  Anyone who doesn’t hold the line should be cast out of the caucus like a leper, stripped of all committee assignments, and primaried.

Problem is, some of those problem solver type districts (Gottheimer, Craig, Slotkin, Spanberger, Cartwright, Golden) would elect a Republican over a dedicated liberal, and democrats need those seats for a majority.

That really isn't necessarily true. Gottheimer, Spanberger, and Golden are obviously very moderate, but Craig and Slotkin are both pretty much mainstream Dems, and Cartwright is actually quite progressive. You don't have to be a Republican-lite to win in a lot of these districts.

It's also flat out false too since Gottheimer, Spanberger, Craig, and Slotkin sit in districts that Democrats routinely win nowadays on every level, with only the occasional one-offs (Youngkin 2021).

[Torie]

Lo and behold, Mr. Clyburn, the man who crowned Biden king, has been channeling the Torie man. Praises Jesus.  It won't happen though. The kook caucus is gonna fold.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3762602-clyburn-to-mccarthy-use-democrats-to-secure-speakership/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lo and behold, Mr. Clyburn, the man who crowned Biden king, has been channeling the Torie man. Praises Jesus.  It won't happen though. The kook caucus is gonna fold.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3762602-clyburn-to-mccarthy-use-democrats-to-secure-speakership/

Clyburn is just trolling McCarthy

[wbrocks67]

Why not both?

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1599934680865832961

[brucejoel99]

Ohhh, let's f**king go:

https://twitter.com/scottwongdc/status/1600164208208859144

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lo and behold, Mr. Clyburn, the man who crowned Biden king, has been channeling the Torie man. Praises Jesus.  It won't happen though. The kook caucus is gonna fold.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3762602-clyburn-to-mccarthy-use-democrats-to-secure-speakership/

Clyburn may be ready to forge the deal for a compromise Speaker, but Jeffries doesn't appear to be: Hakeem Jeffries Casts Doubt On Dems Supporting Kevin McCarthy Speaker Challenger
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hakeem-jeffries-kevin-mccarthy-speakership_n_638dc5f0e4b09eeedb9ece5b

[Torie]

Lo and behold, Mr. Clyburn, the man who crowned Biden king, has been channeling the Torie man. Praises Jesus.  It won't happen though. The kook caucus is gonna fold.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3762602-clyburn-to-mccarthy-use-democrats-to-secure-speakership/

Clyburn may be ready to forge the deal for a compromise Speaker, but Jeffries doesn't appear to be: Hakeem Jeffries Casts Doubt On Dems Supporting Kevin McCarthy Speaker Challenger
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hakeem-jeffries-kevin-mccarthy-speakership_n_638dc5f0e4b09eeedb9ece5b

All posturing. But Jeffries is helping McCarthy, because he is saying the price of Dem support is no investigations of Biden (not that Jeffries can control what a handfull of Tory Dems might do), which is the sine qua non of the Biggs people. So if they withhold the requisite votes from McCarthy, bye, bye to the investigations.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Lo and behold, Mr. Clyburn, the man who crowned Biden king, has been channeling the Torie man. Praises Jesus.  It won't happen though. The kook caucus is gonna fold.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3762602-clyburn-to-mccarthy-use-democrats-to-secure-speakership/

Clyburn may be ready to forge the deal for a compromise Speaker, but Jeffries doesn't appear to be: Hakeem Jeffries Casts Doubt On Dems Supporting Kevin McCarthy Speaker Challenger
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hakeem-jeffries-kevin-mccarthy-speakership_n_638dc5f0e4b09eeedb9ece5b

All posturing. But Jeffries is helping McCarthy, because he is saying the price of Dem support is no investigations of Biden (not that Jeffries can control what a handfull of Tory Dems might do), which is the sine qua non of the Biggs people. So if they withhold the requisite votes from McCarthy, bye, bye to the investigations.

In case you missed it Jeffries was elected unanimously by his caucus and the only ones who grumbled about him becoming leader were some far-left trolls and gadflies on twitter.
No Dem congressman is going to cross him, especially on that matter.

[Torie]

Lo and behold, Mr. Clyburn, the man who crowned Biden king, has been channeling the Torie man. Praises Jesus.  It won't happen though. The kook caucus is gonna fold.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3762602-clyburn-to-mccarthy-use-democrats-to-secure-speakership/

Clyburn may be ready to forge the deal for a compromise Speaker, but Jeffries doesn't appear to be: Hakeem Jeffries Casts Doubt On Dems Supporting Kevin McCarthy Speaker Challenger
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hakeem-jeffries-kevin-mccarthy-speakership_n_638dc5f0e4b09eeedb9ece5b

All posturing. But Jeffries is helping McCarthy, because he is saying the price of Dem support is no investigations of Biden (not that Jeffries can control what a handfull of Tory Dems might do), which is the sine qua non of the Biggs people. So if they withhold the requisite votes from McCarthy, bye, bye to the investigations.

In case you missed it Jeffries was elected unanimously by his caucus and the only ones who grumbled about him becoming leader were some far-left trolls and gadflies on twitter.
No Dem congressman is going to cross him, especially on that matter.

Thank you for your response. In the course of events, the voting for speaker keeps continues until somebody gets a majority of those voting. If nobody does, the voting keeps going and going. At some point, something has to give, or the voting will continue for 2 years and 16,348 additional balloting cycles (how many ballots did the Dem convention go on in 1920, like 235 ballots or something?), with no laws passed. That kind of gridlock might please anarchists and hard line libertarians, but I am not sure anyone else will find much favor with that. Somebody will need to blink.

In any event, I kind of enjoyed speculating as to the end game, however useless that exercise may be. I hope you did not find it unduly tiresome. Regards.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

An important point in this Article: Even if Dems can't bring themselves to affirmatively vote for a compromise Speaker, they can still vote present to help enable it. Such vote still counts for quorum purposes but not for determining how many votes are needed to be elected - one only needs a majority of the votes cast for an individual.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/06/mccarthy-house-gop-speakership-00072553

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I would argue Clyburn has the political management skills that rivals only Pelosi. He baited Biggs masterfully.

[Torrain]

Hear me out:
https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1600899647358529536
You'd be doing us a huge favour, and precedent suggests the House GOP would collapse into civil war within 50 days...

[Landslide Lyndon]

There were news today that Vern Buchanan threatened McCarthy that he will resign if he doesn't become Ways & Means chairman.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

There were news today that Vern Buchanan threatened McCarthy that he will resign if he doesn't become Ways & Means chairman.

And so it begins. This is going to be the most dysfunctional congress since 1857

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1601003779486203909?s=20&t=m9TrP4W...