PA-Big Data Poll: Oz+2

[Dani Rose]

I won't disparage their record, but I do find this hard to believe when Trump is off the ballot and the EV here is only continuing to get better for us.

[Dani Rose]

The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Just to be clear, the so-called "accuracy" of the "Big Data poll" comes from one guy's random tweet responses to Jack Posobiec. There's a reason 538 has them banned (even while giving high ratings to the other polls you mentioned alongside it).

Even Trafalgar mostly seems to throw things at the wall and see what sticks, if the absolutely looney-tunes polls they've put out this year are any measure. Maybe they have a better read on what's going in in the Midwest, which is classically their strongest region, but even there I think they've just ended up getting lucky by predicting substantial Republican overperformances in years where they incidentally ended up happening.

[Dani Rose]

Every time there’s a poll with results people don’t like, they dismiss it.

I don’t like this either but there is a clear trend of Oz leading now.

This. Even if this poll isn't reliable, the fact remains that Oz has led the last several polls, and polling errors rarely if ever benefit Democrats these days. Lean R.

lol, he's (barely) lead in a total of four polls, all of which came from Republicans. The Wick poll actually got closer after the debate. Sure, "Lean R" though.

Pure tossup in reality.

This is why we need "mainstream" pollsters to come into Pennsylvania, because clearly people aren't willing to accept the results of any pollsters that are "Republican" or viewed as a right-leaning bias. The only pollsters acceptable are those like ABC, CNN, and Marist, even though they are less accurate than some of the pollsters (such as Big Data, Emerson, and Trafalgar) that are routinely disparaged.

Note that Big Data has been banned from 538.

I know that, and there is a longstanding feud between Baris and Silver. Nevertheless, this does not undermine the overall thrust of my argument. Certain pollsters are considered to be the "gold standard" even though they are consistently and plainly wrong. The midterms in a few weeks will serve as another test of this, but I fully expect for people to continue denigrating pollsters they don't like even if such pollsters are proven correct.

Silver is pretty lenient with what polls he lets in. I'm quite inclined to believe that these polls are faked or that the methodology is so ad hoc that it doesn't matter if data is actually collected.

Big Data's ban may also have to do with the fact that Baris is an unabashed Trumpist.

So is Cahaly, and Trafalgar is still in the average (and highly rated!)

Yet Trafalgar has the same reputation as Big Data with many people, especially Democrats and left-leaning people.

There's a reason for that: Trafalgar's A rating is mostly an illusion. They wishcasted for the GOP in two consecutive presidential elections where Trump, the single great pillar of GOP overperformances, happened to be running. They accidentally got it right, and that gave them a level of credibility that they frankly never earned. We're seeing that a lot with their frankly bizarre polls outside of the Midwest this year.