Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[cg41386]

I don't live in Virginia but I might be tempted to vote for Youngkin depending on how the legislature plays out. What I'm more worried about is if the state ends up in a republican trifecta.

Not happening.

[cg41386]

Just saw a new Youngkin ad, he absolutely demolished McAuliffe on the premature Afghanistan withdrawal.  Race is over.  Pro-interventionist NOVA is going to deliver for its hometown hero Glenn Youngkin and Matty will be hailed as an amazing political prognosticator for years to come.

But anyways, on Earth 1, the amount of spending Youngkin must be doing is insane.  He's on every channel on prime time on DC stations, meaning it's probably being blasted to NOVA/DC/and parts of Maryland.  He actually seems to be trying to cut into the NOVA margins.  Which, to be fair, is the right strategy.   He can't win unless he gets the Dem margin down 10 points in Fairfax.  Downstate vote isn't going to cut it.  He's been very cautious to look like a Trumpy politician but not say one word that offends liberals.  But at the end of the day he's unlikable and bland and this is a waste of time and money.

is McAuliffe gonna start airing ads or?

He is. I'm on vacation in the Outer Banks of NC, so I've seen a few gubernatorial ads. I've only seen the same one from McAuliffe, and I've seen a couple different ones from Youngkin, including a cringe ad featuring his dog. And one where he says McAuliffe is too dangerous for Virginia, except for the fact he already served a term as Governor and certainly didn't destroy the Commonwealth.

[cg41386]

Youngkin isn't winning and he has zero shot at winning. Just stop.

[cg41386]

Jimmie and I made note of the consistent trend of underestimating the out party in these VA gubernatorial elections. That has been an average of 4 points. Polls have been underestimating the Dems in Dem states recently however. Altogether, the safest assumption should be not to expect polling error. VA is not that blue, the national environment is quickly becoming toxic to Dems, and Youngkin is a decent candidate. Those come together to a D+2 race, which is about where the race stands. Hedging expectations based on the 2017 error is faulty; for polling to have shown that race being within 3 points was suspect in the first place. Trump was deeply unpopular and he had lost VA by 5 points the year before. The expectation should've been a D+10 victory. Therefore saying 'well the polls were in the same place last time and Northam won by 9 so McAuliffe will win by 9' is misanalysing the race.

Mmm, I don't know.

[cg41386]

This thread has really become --- something.

Either way, it's not a sure bet by any means, but Youngkin is the favorite right now, and I'm saying that as a Democrat who wants McAuliffe to win. Maybe some of the others here who are from Virginia have some information that I don't have, but Youngkin has the momentum and is now leading in the polling averages.

Nope, and there haven't been *that* many polls, and that likely bogus Fox poll is skewing the averages.