AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

[patzer]

Do you guys think Elvi Gray Jackson could win this? I think she can Murkowski gets eliminated and she has a lot of her second choice voters.

Possible but it's a long shot. You're relying both on Murkowski being eliminated and on her voters picking Gray Jackson over Tshibaka. Wouldn't rule it out, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[mtvoter]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

So if Mark Begich if enters the race for fun, Murk is donzo?

What are the chances moderate Republicans who support Murk would have Begich as their 2nd pick over Tshibaka.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

One thing I will say that is an important difference between Maine 2020 and Alaska 2022 is that democrats thought they could win in Maine, the polls had Gideon leading. No democrat expects to be able to ousts Murkowski, so I imagine a lot of democrats will rank her high up seeing her as the lesser of two evils compared to Tshibaka. If I was an Alaska voter I’d rank Murkowski first, as she’s not near what I want, but (like my Senator Tim Scott) she is the best us democrats can get out of the state.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

So if Mark Begich if enters the race for fun, Murk is donzo?

What are the chances moderate Republicans who support Murk would have Begich as their 2nd pick over Tshibaka.

Not much. In a two-way race between a moderate dem and a far-right Republican, the far-right Republican will win (at least in 2022).

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

One thing I will say that is an important difference between Maine 2020 and Alaska 2022 is that democrats thought they could win in Maine, the polls had Gideon leading. No democrat expects to be able to ousts Murkowski, so I imagine a lot of democrats will rank her high up seeing her as the lesser of two evils compared to Tshibaka. If I was an Alaska voter I’d rank Murkowski first, as she’s not near what I want, but (like my Senator Tim Scott) she is the best us democrats can get out of the state.

Almost no voters do tactical voting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Murkowski is gonna vote for Michelle Childs anyways that's why she win

[GALeftist]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

One thing I will say that is an important difference between Maine 2020 and Alaska 2022 is that democrats thought they could win in Maine, the polls had Gideon leading. No democrat expects to be able to ousts Murkowski, so I imagine a lot of democrats will rank her high up seeing her as the lesser of two evils compared to Tshibaka. If I was an Alaska voter I’d rank Murkowski first, as she’s not near what I want, but (like my Senator Tim Scott) she is the best us democrats can get out of the state.

Almost no voters do tactical voting.

Citation desperately needed here.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

One thing I will say that is an important difference between Maine 2020 and Alaska 2022 is that democrats thought they could win in Maine, the polls had Gideon leading. No democrat expects to be able to ousts Murkowski, so I imagine a lot of democrats will rank her high up seeing her as the lesser of two evils compared to Tshibaka. If I was an Alaska voter I’d rank Murkowski first, as she’s not near what I want, but (like my Senator Tim Scott) she is the best us democrats can get out of the state.

Almost no voters do tactical voting.

Citation desperately needed here.

It was made a big deal of in the 2008 and 2020 primaries and ended having no effect.

[Forum explorer]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElviForSenate/status/1491834159127531521
Here is her ad

[ElectionsGuy]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

Basically, there's two courses here

1. Murkowski gets eliminated because both the Democrat and Tshibaka get more votes than her before final round.
2. Murkowski makes it to final round because she gets more votes than the Democrat (due to enough independents voting for her over the Democrat), but then must also get enough Republicans and independents to vote for her to win.

I see no scenario where Tshibaka isn't in the final round, and I see no scenario where Murkowski is an outright favorite to win (it's at least a toss-up in scenario 2). Given Murkowski's numbers with Republicans, her strategy must rely on overwhelming amounts of independents and possibly even a good slice of Democrats outright preferring her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/sen-lisa-murkowski-now-conflicted-145505670.html



She is not safe as users think she can lose the Runoff or lose to the Trumpian candidate as Elvi is Pummeled her on Filibuster of Voting Rights, there hasn't been any polls in AK

She only won in 2016 due to Joe Miller

One thing we have to watch out for as D's is that many of these Approvals underpoll females and Minorities just like QU it's a Ivy League school there are no minorities that go to Quinnepiac University

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Either way this vote s her over for her election. She needs significant Democratic as well as Republican votes (as there are serious Democratic and Republican candidates aside from her) and this will only make more voters annoyed with her.

[Schiff for Senate]

If I was her I would honestly probably plan to vote present or abstain.

[riceowl]

lol at the all caps

[NotSoLucky]

Can't wait for her, Collins, Manchin, and Sinema to vote against her because "she's too left wing", ugh.

[Roll Roons]

Can't wait for her, Collins, Manchin, and Sinema to vote against her because "she's too left wing", ugh.

Collins, Manchin and Sinema will all vote yes.

[NotSoLucky]

Can't wait for her, Collins, Manchin, and Sinema to vote against her because "she's too left wing", ugh.

Collins, Manchin and Sinema will all vote yes.

I really hope so. We could see last minute waffling from at least one of them, but let's hope for the best.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1507448076830601216

At this point, I'd actually be pretty shocked if Murkowski loses.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1507448076830601216
At this point, I'd actually be pretty shocked if Murkowski loses.

No other democrat has filed so far. If there's not a strong democratic candidate Murk definitely wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This only confirms the 303 map we will win 50 seats NV, NH, PA, AZ whil WI a pure Tossup and LA and GA are Runoff stated

Pull out of OH, NC already and reaffirm the blue 🧱🧱🧱

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I really don’t see what the Democrats think they are gaining by not challenging Murkowski.

Oh no, we might have a Senator that always votes against us instead of a Senator that always votes against us when their vote matters!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I really don’t see what the Democrats think they are gaining by not challenging Murkowski.

Oh no, we might have a Senator that always votes against us instead of a Senator that always votes against us when their vote matters!

As a Red state democrat, it’s a game about harm reduction

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/AK_OK/status/1507448076830601216
At this point, I'd actually be pretty shocked if Murkowski loses.

Would have made more sense to drop down to the House race rather than run for reelection to the State Senate.

[Canis]

I wonder if Al Gross will hop in the race he expressed interest a few months ago.