NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I look away from this for a couple days and we go from three to five. Just amazing!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

he's not even Irving Ives,

Interestingly, I have been to Bainbridge NY where Ives was born and is buried and my father was for a while in the same hospital Ives died in (38 years later though), in Norwich. NY.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republicans have been very good at getting the crime narrative on their side. It feels simillar to when Rs in Minnesota or Iowa start campaigning on illegal immigration across the southern border, even though those states have nothing to do with the southern border.

In 2013, I recall a poll being done in every swing state and the only one that opposed "a path" by a plurality was Iowa. Considering how it has voted in every election since, I think that poll was accurate to say the least.

The impacts of illegal immigration and immigration in general do not stop with the border. Its like Dr. Oz said, "PA is effectively a border state". Of course Democrats have had their heads in the sand on this issue for over a decade now and completely fail to understand its importance, its electoral impact and the very real consequences that massive disruption in local labor markets have.

Sure we face shortages now, but that is after decades of many low skilled labor markets being depressed for 20 years, saturated with job seekers and against that backdrop the constant drumbeat of how immigration is a positive and anyone who disagrees is just a racist, comes across as out of touch. What the farm crisis did for the Democrats in the 1980s, immigration politics did for Republicans in the 2010s.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is not un-common in these machine Democratic states. Republicans run against the machine but it is either the machine sitting on its hands, or even actively assisting, that then leads to a path towards Republican victory.

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area and thus it should come as no surprise that when he is taken out and replaced with a Western New Yorker, that there would be massive defections. Hochul is not going to get Cuomo's numbers on Staten Island obviously.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is not un-common in these machine Democratic states. Republicans run against the machine but it is either the machine sitting on its hands, or even actively assisting, that then leads to a path towards Republican victory.

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area and thus it should come as no surprise that when he is taken out and replaced with a Western New Yorker, that there would be massive defections. Hochul is not going to get Cuomo's numbers on Staten Island obviously.

Staten Island rarely votes Democrat anyway.

It will manifest elsewhere, that was just the most obvious example. The Nassau margin is another example.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area

Do you have any data at all to back this up? First of all, it isnt 1920, there are plenty of Italians outside of "down-state." Second of all, if you go back to see the actual primary results, you'll see that Cuomo had a strong personal vote in *Western New York* - he has been dumping tons of money into the machines there through the state development agencies (google buffalo billions). There isn't an Italian American vote and hasnt been for decades.

People dont know what "machines" are. It is no one's fault - the media doesnt portray them accurately at all. But between 2018 and 2022, the Dem machine's big "TURNOUT" button fell apart - all of the traditional devices (churches, street outreach, dem clubs, nycha TA) were closed. Cuomo's personal network isn't among paisanos, but Clubs and Churches, especially a large network of Black churches. Combination of dropping off during covid, uncompetitive primaries, and cuomo's revenge means traditional mobilization infrastructure has atrophied.

It would have been more relevant to say "This isn't 1970", but then of course that wouldn't work so well considering how far back Cuomo's family goes in New York politics.

First of all, I am not the first one who has commented on this dynamic on this forum, going as far back to 2010.

Secondly, of course Cuomo's operation included more than just Italians, but I wasn't talking about "his whole operation" if you would actually bother to read my post and not the clipped job you did on it, reading what you want to see to make an irrelevant point to mine which still stands.  

Thirdly, the point that you missed was "the first to flip back" would be his outsized performances on Staten Island and in Nassau, which is mostly going to be Italians who loved his father but otherwise probably would be favorable towards the Republicans in "most other circumstances". Its similar to the Casey effect in Pennsylvania, who while sure Western PA was more Democratic back then as well as NE PA, would cut still further into the historically GOP PA in rural PA as well.

Fourthly, I am very much aware of Cuomo's investments in Western NY, I watched his state of the state speeches frequently.

Lastly, as to the other groups, especially parts of the minority vote, I have referenced that already in previous posts on this topic as being the next wave of voters that Zeldin would need to flip some of in down state to have a chance, more so among Latino and Asian voters than African-Americans obviously.

People dont know what "machines" are. It is no one's fault - the media doesnt portray them accurately at all. But between 2018 and 2022, the Dem machine's big "TURNOUT" button fell apart - all of the traditional devices (churches, street outreach, dem clubs, nycha TA) were closed. Cuomo's personal network isn't among paisanos, but Clubs and Churches, especially a large network of Black churches. Combination of dropping off during covid, uncompetitive primaries, and cuomo's revenge means traditional mobilization infrastructure has atrophied.

The real question is, what do you think other people think "machines" are as to make this criticism an accurate one in first place, or how the media has misled them to think otherwise?

Also it is worth noting that my comment about the machine's role was generalized and examples I had in mind were MA 2010 special and NJ 2013 Governor when I posted it. My second comment actually pointed away from the stated situation regarding the machine and basically reads as "its less about the machine because in this case some of the Cuomo vote is a more natural Republican vote that any effective down state Republican would peel back first, so of course there would be Cuomo supporters among Zeldin's ranks with Cuomo not on the ballot".

Take my advice, don't presume everyone else is automatically stupid because they have a different analysis of the situation from you.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Always the danger in a state this blue.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Just say, Led Zeppelin ekes out a narrow victory, say 50,1% to 49.9%, what counties would Hochschul still win?

I'd assume, all NYC boroughs (bar Staten Island), Westchester, Albany, and Tompkins are safe for the Democrat.
The pivotal question will be if she would also be going to Nassau, Rockland, Buffalo and Rochester.

What do you think?

Barring NYC just not voting at all, I cannot see a path for Zeldin that doesn't include winning Nassau and winning it by a decent margin at minimum. Erie is complicated because Hochul is from there, but at the same time Zeldin kind of needs that as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I was three years old when George Pataki defeated Mario Cuomo, but there are a number of similarities here that I have heard pointed out. Among them the economy and crime topping the charts,

One interesting dynamic that Zeldin doesn't have to deal with is Rudy fing Giuliani. Rudy endorsed Cuomo and actually campaigned across the state with him, which severely dented Pataki's momentum the last couple of weeks. A late shift towards Republicans nationally as well people breaking for the change option got Pataki over the top anyway. Zeldin is also facing a much weaker Democratic candidate arguably.

On the other hand, Zeldin's coalition is far more novel in contrast to Pataki who was only ten years removed from the last GOP Presidential victory in the state, had a much higher floor and was drawing on voters much more comfortable voting for Republicans at the time. A lot of those voters are now dead or in Florida. Zeldin is going to need deep inroads with Asians and Hispanics in the outer boroughs to have a chance and it might be trying to accomplish too much in one cycle, but we will see I guess.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Barring NYC just not voting at all, I cannot see a path for Zeldin that doesn't include winning Nassau and winning it by a decent margin at minimum. Erie is complicated because Hochul is from there, but at the same time Zeldin kind of needs that as well.

I tried to figure out what counties Zeldin needs to win by taking a look at Pataki's election, but I saw that the county map was kind of "flawed", as both his elections were three-way races, with a liberal independent running in either case.

Zeldin is very unlikely to win Westchester at this point also and definitely will not win Tompkins.

Zeldin will do better in the North Country than Pataki 1994, but will do worse in the Hudson Valley thanks to all those NYC transplants.

Beyond that, you really have to get more granular than counties within NYC and start examining various communities for improvements.