Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[BudgieForce]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_111920.pdf/

(810 A)

Not really approvals, but:
Putting aside any policy differences you may have, how confident are you that Joe Biden
will be able to get Washington to be more cooperative – very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

51/46



Trump approvals
46/51

Interestingly, Monmouth over sampled Republicans and Independents in this poll. I'm not saying that's a bad thing mind you, especially after 2020.

[BudgieForce]

Seems like we're getting a YouGov poll tomorrow with Trump's numbers plummeting.

https://twitter.com/doug_rivers/status/1348795246960726016

[BudgieForce]

Can we just point out that Biden's approval ratings from a historical perspective aren't actually that great?

Obama entered office with a 67% approval rating (his first one on Gallup).

Approval ratings usually have a strong correlation with midterm performance and various special elections so you'd think if Biden is 45% or less the Republicans will be solid favorites for the house and have a good shot at the senate.

Obama entered office with an abnormal amount of goodwill. The country was in the midst of the great recession/Iraq War and even republican's were resonating with Obama's message of "hope and change".

A better comparison would be Obama's predecessors. Both Clinton and Bush Jr. entered office with approval ratings in the mid to high 50s according to Gallup.

[BudgieForce]

Civiqs has his "favorability" by state

Didn’t Civiqs have unusually bad favorability for Biden in their general election polls as well? Still, that’s quite bad for Biden in many of these states. Safe to say our politics is broken and any new president likely starts with terrible headwinds that make governing and progress so tough. Sad. 

I think you're reading too much into this.

As you noted, Civiqs has had some of Biden's worst favorability numbers throughout the last election cycle. This map looks like it continues that trend.

Do you really think Biden just won Colorado and New Mexico by double digits and he's already underwater?

[BudgieForce]

Do you have a source for the favorability polls, ideally numeric?

https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_joe_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true

[BudgieForce]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_jan22

48% approve, 45% disapprove. (n=500 I believe)

I also recall Biden is underwater with women (46/48) and with whites (43/51).

Incidentally, Trump's final approval rating was also 48%.

Why did you feel inclined to create a separate thread for this?

Edit: Especially for a Rasmussen poll at that.

[BudgieForce]

RCP just released their job approval aggregate for Biden: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Approve: 54.8% (+18.0)
Disapprove: 36.8%

No graph yet, however.

God damn it Rasmussen.

[BudgieForce]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 19-22, 1500 adults including 1201 RV

This usually comes out on Wednesday; no idea why it's a day early this week.

Adults:

Approve 51 (-3)
Disapprove 41 (+4)

Strongly approve 33 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 28 (-1)

RV:

Approve 51 (-4)
Disapprove 40 (nc)

Strongly approve 37 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+1)

YouGov has been very swingy lately.

[BudgieForce]

Biden back over 60%, thank you America!!

With Biden at 51 Rs can forget about taking 15/20 seats, the D are starting a wave and the wave will depend on the Recovery, we can wind back to 230 and 52/54 Senate seats

.at least it won't be a 2014 cycle, R 5 cycle, like Rs hopef it would be

This is called a honeymoon period, and will likely be over soon.

At least it probably won't last two years.

Both Lief and olawakandi have been members of this forum since The Bush administration. I'm sure they know we're in a honeymoon period.

[BudgieForce]

Nevada - WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal
February 26-March 1
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure 12%

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/the-nevada-poll-nevadans-give-biden-sisolak-favorable-marks-2293284/

Yep, we are losing NV Senate.
I am calling it.

Not sure I agree since that number seems fairly decent for Nevada.

[BudgieForce]

Monmouth
February 25-March 1
802 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Changes with January 2021

Approve 51% (-3)
Disapprove 42% (+12)
No opinion 8% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_030321.pdf/

Guess the honeymoon is wearing off. Not surprising, but I was hoping it would last a little longer.

Edit: It appears like most of the increase came from Republicans forming an opinion on Biden. Again, not surprising.

[BudgieForce]

I don't think Biden's approval numbers are going to fall below the low 50s, but his disapproval numbers will shoot up as Republican's start forming an opinion/start answering polls again.

If I were a gambling man, I'd say Biden's floor right now is 51%/47%. Unless everything starts imploding again, I doubt he ever goes below that.

[BudgieForce]

Florida - Mason-Dixon
February 24-28
625 registered voters
MoE: 4%

Disapprove 49%
Approve 47%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/410602-poll-shows-support-but-vulnerability-for-marco-rubio

This is just hilarious.

A red state masquerading as a swing state. Biden should just ignore us.

Edit: Funny to see Rubio potentially vulnerable.

[BudgieForce]

CNN/SSRS, March 3-8, 1009 adults

Approve 51
Disapprove 41

The crosstabs show 50/44 among RV, but the number of RV is not given.

Seems like the telephone pollsters(CNN, Monmouth and Quinnipiac) are all around +10.

[BudgieForce]

F**k this country. We deserve to fail, I will enjoy the suffering of other Americans at this point.

We're two months into the administration. It's way too early to be reacting like this.

As for the NPR/Marist, they only had Biden at +14 days after his inauguration. Not surprising they'd be one of the more bearish pollsters.

[BudgieForce]

I was hoping for a longer honeymoon, but i guess in these partisan times, a long presidential honeymoon is probably impossible.

I figure we'll have a somewhat similar situation to Trump in a a few months. Except instead of Biden being stuck in the mid 40s, he'll hover around the low 50s.

I personally think Biden can crack that low 50s ceiling as the country opens up and the economy starts roaring back. Until then, partisanship will win the day.

[BudgieForce]

I was hoping for a longer honeymoon, but i guess in these partisan times, a long presidential honeymoon is probably impossible.

I figure we'll have a somewhat similar situation to Trump in a a few months. Except instead of Biden being stuck in the mid 40s, he'll hover around the low 50s.

I personally think Biden can crack that low 50s ceiling as the country opens up and the economy starts roaring back. Until then, partisanship will win the day.

Biden approval rating hasn't dropped much in the last few months

Biden's numbers are still very strong in the online trackers, but the live telephone polls are showing smaller margins.

Marist - +7
CNN - +10
Monmouth - +9

I'm not saying to discount the online polls but I also think we shouldn't discount whats happening in these polls either.

Edit: I'm definitely overthinking it.

[BudgieForce]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Good point.

"In reality", Biden's approval is likely higher.

[BudgieForce]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Sub group cross tabs in polls are always weird, not sure what can be done about it.

So it's best to take a poll at face value and not try to unscramble it's crosstabs.

Edit: Admittedly, I'm very guilty of doing this.

[BudgieForce]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!

https://www.nhpr.org/post/trump-asks-how-stupid-are-people-iowa#stream/0

Trump's famous "How stupid are the people of Iowa" rant.

[BudgieForce]

That Selzer poll might be one of the best state polls Biden has gotten in awhile. Or we really do live in a reality where Biden has better approval numbers in Iowa than he does in New Hampshire.