Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Big news

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/24/tokyo-olympics-to-be-postponed-to-2021-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic

Abe and IOC agrees to delay Olympics for one year.  There goes Abe's plan of a late 2020 lower house election in the afterglow of a successful Tokyo Olympics. Of course that plan was sort of dead anyway after the virus outbreak in Jan-Feb.

When do you think Abe likely holds the next election then?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Big news

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/24/tokyo-olympics-to-be-postponed-to-2021-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic

Abe and IOC agrees to delay Olympics for one year.  There goes Abe's plan of a late 2020 lower house election in the afterglow of a successful Tokyo Olympics. Of course that plan was sort of dead anyway after the virus outbreak in Jan-Feb.

When do you think Abe likely holds the next election then?

It is either early 2021 or perhaps even July 2020.  With the Olympics pushed back one year there is a real risk that Abe becomes a lame duck PM.  I think within the LDP the view of Abe as an election asset is declining so Abe's ability to get a unprecedented 4th team in Sept 2021 or to influence his successor is now in doubt even as the LDP leadership are still 100% behind Abe.  What Abe has to do is to show that he is an election winner which makes a July 2020 election possible.  If Abe does not go that route then an election in early 2021 would be the only other option.  For sure Abe has to get the next lower house election done well before the Sept 2021 LDP prez election and ergo well in advance of Oct 2021 when it is due legally.

Isn't it the case that the Japanese opposition would have a harder time the less time they have until the next election?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't it the case that the Japanese opposition would have a harder time the less time they have until the next election?

Agreed on principle.  Abe surprised DPJ and JRP in 2014 so they could not come up with viable candidates and work out tactical alliances.  In 2017 to some extent DP was sort of ready but the opposition was in the middle of a realignment. 

This time around it seems for competitive seats CDP DPP SDP and JCP are mostly on the same page which candidates will take on the LDP-KP 1-on-1.  Main problem now is trying to get RS to come along.  DPP's Ozawa which was in the same party as RS leader Tarō Yamamoto during the 2017-2019 period under PLP and then LP has been tasks to work things out with Yamamoto.  One big unknown will be where outside of Osaka JRP will run and what impact that will have on competitive seats.

Based off the best knowledge we have rn, what are the most competitive seats? I assume Tokyo-1 is one of them?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election voting over.  Race called for LDP over CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP joint candidate and PNHK.

what was the margin?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This seems to be a decenr end result for Abe Shinzo I guess, taken as a whole.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This seems to be a decenr end result for Abe Shinzo I guess, taken as a whole.

Yep, this might reignite talks of an early election.  Even if approval of government on the virus crisis is lukewarm at best, the LDP is seen as the party that gets things done and CDP is seen as the party of ideals.  In a crisis you are going to gravitate toward "get things done" party.  Low turnout of course helps as well.

Two things came to mind as well.
With corona going around, the atmosphere of Japanese elections (which has restrictions on campaigning not seen in most other countries) is going to make it even harder for the opposition to get its ground game working properly and convinced needed swing voters.
Additionally, the opposition's ability to work together optimally will likely be hampered. It's easier for LDP-KP to serve as an effective fighting vehicle than CDP-DPP-SDP-others.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch. That swing. The LDP victory margin has more than doubled since 2017.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The question is how long will Abe remain as Prime Minister ?

He could still run for yet another term as LDP President, and is perhaps even very likely to do so.
This could mean he is still PM on New Years 2024.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if North Korea even funds the JCP anymore as it has Nukes and no reason to fund Anti-American Candidates that oppose the bases because America can't invade NK?

the JCP has never in recent history, if I recall, got funds from NK (correct me if I'm wrong here). It has always been at least mainly self-funding. They don't take money from corporations either.
This is why they have a reputation for honesty and integrity.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

On the JCP, is factionalism rife there as the rest of Japanese parties, or is it a centralized party?

my general impression of the JCP is that by virtue of their ideological isolation they have to be more cohesive than other parties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

The JCP does collect large sums of money but the big chunk of that is taken up by maintaining their partisan newspaper, putting up candidates in as many places as is justifiable  (running in Japanese elections is an expensive proposition due to the many regulations), and popular campaigns they finance (such as the one that targetted the TPP). And they don't even get any money from the outside. No corporate money whatsoever, no foreign funding.
So all this is underwritten by their own supporters.
They have a well-earned reputation for incorruptability.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

Tons of money passes through the JCP but a lot of that money traditionally gets burned on deposit-losing (or whatever the equivalent term is in Japanese) campaigns for unwinnable seats, since until the last few years they weren't open to alliances with the non-communist left. (Plus the other expenses TimTurner mentioned.)

They're a quixotic and at times almost cultish party, but, like Tim said, not by any means a corrupt one.

An interesting if somewhat unrelated thing: how much does the bureaucratic regulations surrounding electioneering in Japan (the deposit costs, the limitations on campaigning, etc) contribute to the heavily pro-incumbent political culture of the country?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B2%A1%E5%B1%B1%E7%9C%8C%E8%AD%B0%E4%BC%9A
The LDP domination of prefectural assemblies in Chugoku is so complete it's almost absurd.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

where would you categorize Aomori Prefecture here? I always got the sense it was more LDP than Tohoku overall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

毎日(mainichi) poll on Tokyo governor has massive Koike lead

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) (JP-part of LDP-Rengo)                    51%
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP)    10%
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                              8%
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                                   7%
立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) (PNHK)                                        2%

With Koike headed toward a majority in a fairly crowded field.

It seems that there is quite a lot of undecideds?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems that JRP will push foward with the 大阪都構想 (Osaka Metropolis plan).  The idea is to turn 大阪(Osaka) from a 府(Fu or urban prefecture) to 都 (To or metropolis).  Currently the only other 府(Fu) in Japan is 京都(Kyoto).  The real agenda is really dethron Tokyo as the capital of Japan and creating two capitals with 東京(Tokyo) as captail of East Japan and 大阪(Osaka) as the captial of West Japan.

If the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly and various other municipal assemblies passes this, which they will as all of them are controled by JRP, then there will be a refernedum in Nov 2020.  A similar referendum failed in 2015 50.38%-49.62% which led to the retirmennt from active politics of JRP founder Hashimoto.   This time around with JRP being much stronger in 大阪(Osaka) than in 2015 it will most likely pass.

Overall Abe is most likely supportive of this plan while the 大阪(Osaka) LDP is very much opposed.  Most of this has to do with personal dynmics.  Abe is on good personal terms with Hashimoto while the Hashimoto pretty much created JRP in 2011 by splitting the 大阪(Osaka) LDP leading to raw hatred between JRP and the 大阪(Osaka) LDP.  In 大阪(Osaka) local politics it is pretty much LDP-CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP against JRP with KP mostly playing a neutral role where KP could and has allied with JRP and LDP.  But that the 大阪(Osaka) LDP can ally with JCP to take on JRP shows the depth of animosity the 大阪(Osaka) LDP has for JRP and they will fight tooth and nail to defeat this proposal in the likely Nov 2020 referendum.

So is this going to be Osaka+Sakai or just Osaka this time?
(in regards to how much of the prefecture becomes special wards)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How does this alter the possibilities relating to when the next general election takes place?