UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

if Boris asks for an extension, he'll claim Remainers forced him to do so.

Remainers ate Johnson's homework.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Johnson has managed to reach an agreement with the EU... which is still opposed by the DUP.


https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1184764798107602944


https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1184764705384124416


https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1184766856340660229

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1184770653859336192

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not surprisingly.... Johnson's deal is not only rejected by the DUP, but also Labour and SNP. Meaning it's pretty much dead on arrival.

Nevertheless, vote in parliament is scheduled for Saturday.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not surprisingly.... Johnson's deal is not only rejected by the DUP, but also Labour and SNP. Meaning it's pretty much dead on arrival.

Nevertheless, vote in parliament is scheduled for Saturday.

Not necessarily - the EU could say: Its this Deal or No deal, we will not approve a extension. Then it depends if Remainers call the Bluff.

Well, they would need to say this before Parliament votes on the deal the day after tomorrow, and so far there hasn't been any indication that the EU would definitely rule out another extension. Strictly speaking, the EU only decides on whether to grant extensions if the UK government has requested such an extension.

Therefore it's unlikely that the 27 leaders of the post-Brexit EU could agree on issuing a "Even if you ask for another extension we would turn you down, no matter what reasons** you would provide us for that request. Don't even try" statement within the next 48 hours, because that's a hardline position I have a hard time seeing Germany, Denmark, or Ireland going along with it.

The tactic you've described in your post (this deal or no deal) seems to be the one Johnson's operating with though.


** = granting another extension to hold an election or a second referendum in the UK was always a potential backdoor here

[Middle-aged Europe]

Jean-Claude Juncker has just ruled out another extension, but aside from the fact that he isn't the European Council:


https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184823017442033666

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1184825376603824128

[Middle-aged Europe]

Macron periodically makes noises about chucking the UK out, but that's just what they are - noises.

Macron's first reaction to the Johnson deal today also seemed unusually laid back for him, essentially saying something along the lines of "let's wait and see, we've been here before and it didn't work out".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the deal really that dead? Surely the likes of Kinnock-the-lesser and Caroline Flint in Labout plus some of the Tory-21 give it a reasonable chance?

Personally I have begun to look at it as a "Feel me once, shame on you..."/"The Boy Who Cried Wolf"-kind situation. That is I will believe that Brexit will happen the moment Brexit actually happens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1184892424147144710

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel: Extension unavoidable if Parliament rejects deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/brexit-extension-unavoidable-if-mps-reject-deal-says-merkel

[Middle-aged Europe]

Macron Says U.K. Must Not Get New Delay if Parliament Vote Fails

The usual posturing stuff from him, ignore.

"No new deal" also isn't the same as "no new extension", since Macron apparently leaves the door open for another extension in which Johnson's promises to get the necessary majority to pass this deal by holding a snap election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Boris Johnson's "the will of the people always overrules the rule of law" approach to politics is really a throwback to much darker times. If the people of the UK would vote in a referendum to, let's say, chemically castrate all the gays and Parliament would pass an act to the contrary would he still go ahead and chemically castrate all the gays because he must follow the will of the people?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking: Bercow refuses to allow meaningful vote on Brexit deal today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The EU has just agreed to an extension until January 31:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50205603

[Middle-aged Europe]

The EU has just agreed to an extension until January 31:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50205603

If there's not an election in December then the EU will be humiliated, since the EU leaders have so often said that an extension needs to serve a specific purpose and not just be an extension for the fun of it.

Well, every additional extension is easier to grant than the one before, because after a while it just becomes a generally accepted custom. Maybe the EU will at one point simply switch to auto-pilot and start to regularly wink new extensions through.


Or as the popular meme put it: