Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[GeorgiaModerate]

NC CD-09 only: SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute (conservative NC nonprofit), July 5-8, 543 likely voters.  This is an R+7 district.

Approve 43
Disapprove 49

Men: 47/46
Women: 40/52

The same poll has the Democratic candidate for this open House seat ahead by 7.

[ajc0918]

NC CD-09 only: SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute (conservative NC nonprofit), July 5-8, 543 likely voters.  This is an R+7 district.

Approve 43
Disapprove 49

Men: 47/46
Women: 40/52

The same poll has the Democratic candidate for this open House seat ahead by 7.

This seems appropriate given Trump's national approval.

[KingSweden]

NC CD-09 only: SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute (conservative NC nonprofit), July 5-8, 543 likely voters.  This is an R+7 district.

Approve 43
Disapprove 49

Men: 47/46
Women: 40/52

The same poll has the Democratic candidate for this open House seat ahead by 7.

This seems appropriate given Trump's national approval.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, July 8-10, 1500 adults including 1240 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 42, R 38 (same as last week)

[BudgieForce]

Morning Consult/Politico:

Approve - 46%(+3)
Disapprove - 49%(-5) or 50%(-4) 

Generic Ballot is D+5.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-8655-d844-adf5-c755af120000

Throw it in the aggregate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico:

Approve - 46%(+3)
Disapprove - 49%(-5) or 50%(-4) 

Generic Ballot is D+5.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-8655-d844-adf5-c755af120000

Throw it in the aggregate.

The difference between 49% and 50% disapproval is rounding.  By detailed categories, out of 1999 total responses, somewhat disapprove is 267 (13.4%) and strongly disapprove is 728 (36.4%).  These are reported to the nearest whole numbers, 13% and 36%, for a total of 49%.  But adding the two categories, the total disapprovals are 995/1999 or 49.8%, which rounds to 50.

[BudgieForce]

Morning Consult/Politico:

Approve - 46%(+3)
Disapprove - 49%(-5) or 50%(-4) 

Generic Ballot is D+5.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-8655-d844-adf5-c755af120000

Throw it in the aggregate.

The difference between 49% and 50% disapproval is rounding.  By detailed categories, out of 1999 total responses, somewhat disapprove is 267 (13.4%) and strongly disapprove is 728 (36.4%).  These are reported to the nearest whole numbers, 13% and 36%, for a total of 49%.  But adding the two categories, the total disapprovals are 995/1999 or 49.8%, which rounds to 50.

Oh. Thanks for the explanation GeorgiaModerate.

[pbrower2a]

NC CD-09 only: SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute (conservative NC nonprofit), July 5-8, 543 likely voters.  This is an R+7 district.

Approve 43
Disapprove 49

Men: 47/46
Women: 40/52

The same poll has the Democratic candidate for this open House seat ahead by 7.

This happens under one of three circumstances:

1. a district changes, as after a change of its boundaries. That hasn't happened here.

2. the candidate behind is compromised, as with a scandal or with one of the candidates getting foot-in-the-mouth disease.

3. a political wave is forming.

[KingSweden]

NC CD-09 only: SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute (conservative NC nonprofit), July 5-8, 543 likely voters.  This is an R+7 district.

Approve 43
Disapprove 49

Men: 47/46
Women: 40/52

The same poll has the Democratic candidate for this open House seat ahead by 7.

This happens under one of three circumstances:

1. a district changes, as after a change of its boundaries. That hasn't happened here.

2. the candidate behind is compromised, as with a scandal or with one of the candidates getting foot-in-the-mouth disease.

3. a political wave is forming.

Definitely 2, quite possibly 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, July 5-8, 1000 registered voters

Approve 43 (strongly 19)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 47)

I believe this is a D-associated firm, and don't find a previous poll from them for comparison.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Global Strategy Group, July 5-8, 1000 registered voters

Approve 43 (strongly 19)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 47)

I believe this is a D-associated firm, and don't find a previous poll from them for comparison.

OOF those strongly numbers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How high would President Obama's approvals be if he had the unemployment rate this low?  55, maybe 60%?  

Not just Obama, any GOP or Democratic president would be doing very well at the moment. Even Hillary would be about 50-55% since she always polls better when she is on the job and out of the news.

Not necssarily, since the FBI cleared her, due in part she was no longer an officeholder. More investigations would have been going on

[super6646]

Global Strategy Group, July 5-8, 1000 registered voters

Approve 43 (strongly 19)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 47)

I believe this is a D-associated firm, and don't find a previous poll from them for comparison.

OOF those strongly numbers

I mean the approval and disapproval isn't itself awful, but when 47% of the country STRONGLY disapproves with only 19% strongly approving, that is very concerning.

[KingSweden]

Global Strategy Group, July 5-8, 1000 registered voters

Approve 43 (strongly 19)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 47)

I believe this is a D-associated firm, and don't find a previous poll from them for comparison.

OOF those strongly numbers

I mean the approval and disapproval isn't itself awful, but when 47% of the country STRONGLY disapproves with only 19% strongly approving, that is very concerning.

Yeah well said.

[BudgieForce]

Fox News

Approve - 46%(+1)
Disapprove - 51%(=)

Generic Ballot at D+8.

Fox has been incredibly stable since January, much like the aggregates.

https://www.scribd.com/document/383743616/Fox-July-2018-National-Topline-July-12-Release#download&from_embed

Edit: Also doesn't mean much but lowest party i.d gap in awhile.

[Thunder98]

I wonder why Trump's approval ratings in Wisconsin are lower than in NJ, CT, DE, PA, MI, ME, NH, VA, NM, CO, and NV? According to Morning Consult.

[pbrower2a]

Fox News

Approve - 46%(+1)
Disapprove - 51%(=)

Generic Ballot at D+8.

Fox has been incredibly stable since January, much like the aggregates.

https://www.scribd.com/document/383743616/Fox-July-2018-National-Topline-July-12-Release#download&from_embed

Edit: Also doesn't mean much but lowest party i.d gap in awhile.

Because of gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a +8 advantage in the raw vote for Congress to avoid being in the majority.

[BudgieForce]

Fox News

Approve - 46%(+1)
Disapprove - 51%(=)

Generic Ballot at D+8.

Fox has been incredibly stable since January, much like the aggregates.

https://www.scribd.com/document/383743616/Fox-July-2018-National-Topline-July-12-Release#download&from_embed

Edit: Also doesn't mean much but lowest party i.d gap in awhile.

Because of gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a +8 advantage in the raw vote for Congress to avoid being in the majority.

I dont think it's that high. I'd wager Democrats need to be at +6.

[pbrower2a]

Fox News

Approve - 46%(+1)
Disapprove - 51%(=)

Generic Ballot at D+8.

Fox has been incredibly stable since January, much like the aggregates.

https://www.scribd.com/document/383743616/Fox-July-2018-National-Topline-July-12-Release#download&from_embed

Edit: Also doesn't mean much but lowest party i.d gap in awhile.

Because of gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a +8 advantage in the raw vote for Congress to avoid being in the majority.

I dont think it's that high. I'd wager Democrats need to be at +6.

If Trump and the GOP lose the farm-and-ranch constituency to any marked extent, then that alone will make the gerrymandering irrelevant. America would be ready for a 2020-equivalent of a New Deal coalition.

[ajc0918]

Fox News

Approve - 46%(+1)
Disapprove - 51%(=)

Generic Ballot at D+8.

Fox has been incredibly stable since January, much like the aggregates.

https://www.scribd.com/document/383743616/Fox-July-2018-National-Topline-July-12-Release#download&from_embed

Edit: Also doesn't mean much but lowest party i.d gap in awhile.

Because of gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a +8 advantage in the raw vote for Congress to avoid being in the majority.

I dont think it's that high. I'd wager Democrats need to be at +6.

If Trump and the GOP lose the farm-and-ranch constituency to any marked extent, then that alone will make the gerrymandering irrelevant. America would be ready for a 2020-equivalent of a New Deal coalition.

Can you explain your thinking here?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I wonder why Trump's approval ratings in Wisconsin are lower than in NJ, CT, DE, PA, MI, ME, NH, VA, NM, CO, and NV? According to Morning Consult.

Makes no sense at all. Dems are at a nadir in Wisconsin due to their optics and policies, and DJT is uniquely best fit for the Badger State. Hack poll.

[Dr. Arch]

I wonder why Trump's approval ratings in Wisconsin are lower than in NJ, CT, DE, PA, MI, ME, NH, VA, NM, CO, and NV? According to Morning Consult.

Makes no sense at all. Dems are at a nadir in Wisconsin due to their optics and policies, and DJT is uniquely best fit for the Badger State. Hack poll.

Lmao. The "best fit," shut up while you're ahead.

[ON Progressive]

I wonder why Trump's approval ratings in Wisconsin are lower than in NJ, CT, DE, PA, MI, ME, NH, VA, NM, CO, and NV? According to Morning Consult.

Makes no sense at all. Dems are at a nadir in Wisconsin due to their optics and policies, and DJT is uniquely best fit for the Badger State. Hack poll.

Lmao. The "best fit," shut up while you're ahead.

Ignore anything hofoid says, especially if it's about Wisconsin. He knows nothing about WI politics.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I wonder why Trump's approval ratings in Wisconsin are lower than in NJ, CT, DE, PA, MI, ME, NH, VA, NM, CO, and NV? According to Morning Consult.

Makes no sense at all. Dems are at a nadir in Wisconsin due to their optics and policies, and DJT is uniquely best fit for the Badger State. Hack poll.

Lmao. The "best fit," shut up while you're ahead.

Winning Wisconsin (while the Dems, especially the particularly idiotic Hillary/DNC, piss away the Driftless and Northern Wisconsin) in a close national race when Dubya and Romney can't = Best fit. Let's not be dense. Unlike Scott Walker, he didn't need great margins in WOW to do it, either.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Global Strategy Group, July 5-8, 1000 registered voters

Approve 43 (strongly 19)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 47)

I believe this is a D-associated firm, and don't find a previous poll from them for comparison.

OOF those strongly numbers

I mean the approval and disapproval isn't itself awful, but when 47% of the country STRONGLY disapproves with only 19% strongly approving, that is very concerning.

Yeah well said.

Looks like the Trump cult is starting to lose faith in their leader.