As fascinated as I might be by these endless posts about whether Pedro Castillo is good or bad, I'd like to talk about the actual election results.
Castillo's vote is generally not very interesting (although it's noteworthy that his home region of Cajamarca has a fairly low indigenous population); we know who voted for Castillo. I'm more interested in who voted for Fujimori. I'm not talking about people who voted for her because she's the lesser of two evils; even though she got her lowest vote share yet this time, the fact that she made it into the runoff is proof enough that she has a serious base of support.
Who are the people who vote for Fujimori? I don't have a great sense except that they tend to live closer to the coast. Clearly they're nostalgic for the '90s, but what social classes do they belong to? Who were the winners of the Fujimori presidency?
I expect a lot of those wanting to spoil their ballots now will break for Keiko Fujimori. Still; seems like it’s going to take massive work to get Keiko elected, either in enthusiasm for her or in the eventual stealing of this election if normal electoral means are off the table.
Maybe, but I’m not too sure about that. From the same poll...
Pedro Castillo:
Definitely will vote for 34%
Could vote for 18%
Probably won’t vote for 8%
Definitely won’t vote for 33%
Keiko Fujimori:
Definitely will vote for 20%
Could vote for 15%
Probably won’t vote for 5%
Definitely won’t vote for 55%
That is a (current) ceiling of 52% to Castillo and only 35% to Fujimori. Meaning he also has more potential of growth.
What could benefit Keiko is how the campaign develops and how successful she is at attaching Castillo’s image to something more negative than hers. She could win but she will have to work hard.
That 55% figure is surprising given that she got 40% in the first round and 50% in the second round just five years ago. Obviously Keiko Fujimori has not covered herself in glory in the last half-decade any more than anyone else in Peruvian politics did, but it's noteworthy that a significant portion of her vote from 2016 is now supposedly unwinnable for her.
