2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Oryxslayer]

I really don't get why they can't do Santa Cruz+Cochise+Tucson



It looks nice and compact and has the bonus of being competitive, Biden+5 (you can also still draw the border VRA seat with this configuration)

They can draw such a seat. Frankly, they can even stick it all inside Pima. The northern additions to add bits of non-native rurals are forced cause they choose to add Yavapai to the NE seat, forcing it to drop population to other seats in the South/SW. That, and maybe the desire for a competitive seat pertinent to the commissions mandate.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1450145715619958787

[kwabbit]

My weird take. Arizona has interesting geography so you can make a lot of weird maps with it. This map has two hispanic majority Districts along with a hispanic plurality + NA map.

[Spectator]

My weird take. Arizona has interesting geography so you can make a lot of weird maps with it. This map has two hispanic majority Districts along with a hispanic plurality + NA map.

That is a Democrat dream map

[Stuart98]

My weird take. Arizona has interesting geography so you can make a lot of weird maps with it. This map has two hispanic majority Districts along with a hispanic plurality + NA map.

Illegal, you split the Navajo reservation.

[kwabbit]

My weird take. Arizona has interesting geography so you can make a lot of weird maps with it. This map has two hispanic majority Districts along with a hispanic plurality + NA map.

Illegal, you split the Navajo reservation.

Yeah, realized that as soon as I posted. With the changes, that district is 39% Hispanic, 20% Native, 36% White.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/58de1c17-2edc-48c0-a711-4d7b3f878d69

[S019]

Maps possibly coming next week
https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1451312716862275607

at the moment, they stand here: https://irc-az.maps.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/6234a1043da144e9bdcfbd5940b10adf/data



Unfortunately, their shape files are not DRA friendly, so we don't really know the exact partisan numbers on this map.

[Brittain33]

I’ve been following the discussions on Twitter. Putting Yavapai and Gilia County into AZ-2 make that district unlikely for O’Halleran to hold. AZ-1 is highly competitive. Most of AZ-9’s population is in Maricopa.

[Brittain33]

Also interesting that the Latino border district has left the Phoenix metro entirely.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1453861139066986498?s=21

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly I was hoping to see a map with more highly competitive seats. To me it looks like AZ-1 would be the only contested seat in a normal cycle

[Boobs]

Honestly I was hoping to see a map with more highly competitive seats. To me it looks like AZ-1 would be the only contested seat in a normal cycle

Eyeballing it AZ-08 may be a Trump-Kelly (and Sinema) district.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Really?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

[Antonio the Sixth]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

[ProgressiveModerate]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

Dang your right it looks safer than it is. Prolly becomes safe by the end of decade and Biden prolly won it by about 8 or so in 2020.

[Meatball Ron]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

Dang your right it looks safer than it is. Prolly becomes safe by the end of decade and Biden prolly won it by about 8 or so in 2020.

I find the 538 numbers to be pretty uninformative - do we know Biden vs. Trump in these new districts?

[Antonio the Sixth]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

Dang your right it looks safer than it is. Prolly becomes safe by the end of decade and Biden prolly won it by about 8 or so in 2020.

We should be careful assuming that 2020 trends will carry out indefinitely. Maybe they will, or maybe they'll actually slide back.

Either way, this map is awful even for a state that's R-leaning.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

Dang your right it looks safer than it is. Prolly becomes safe by the end of decade and Biden prolly won it by about 8 or so in 2020.

We should be careful assuming that 2020 trends will carry out indefinitely. Maybe they will, or maybe they'll actually slide back.

Either way, this map is awful even for a state that's R-leaning.

Nah this map seems pretty fair overall. 5D-4R on 2020 Pres. 1 would be about in line with AZ with AZ-6 slightly to the left and AZ-8 slightly to the right. 3 kinda is a bit of a max D tbf though.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Dems would love this 7D-2R map. 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/346515f6-9ee3-4296-b2e2-66ca45aee38b

[S019]

DRA map for you all to enjoy: https://davesredistricting.org/join/e57facbd-e9c0-4bee-b000-636c42f2669b

[Sestak]

So the most recent Arizona map seems like a pretty solid 7-2.

I'm shocked, I tell you.

[lfromnj]

So the most recent Arizona map seems like a pretty solid 7-2.

I'm shocked, I tell you.

It has 4 Biden seats and the 5th one should be a Biden seat as well once they adjust the deviation.

538 of course is being idiotic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any major news coming from the Commission as of late?