🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[DL]

And now, Parm Gill, Ontario Minister for Red Tape Reduction and PC MPP for Milton is also resigning as both minister and MPP to return to federal politics (he was MP for Brampton-Springdale from 2011 to 2015).

Maybe Bonnie Crombie might run here?

[DL]

I would think Crombie would be strongly favoured in a Milton by-election. Due to changing demos, it is a more Liberal riding than anywhere else in Halton now. But if she can't win a low hanging 905 seat like Milton (and Crombie is seen as the Liberal's best hope to win back the region), there may be calls for her removal. But, it's not like they have anyone better though.

I just keep thinking that Ford's people must have tried to move hell and high water to get Parm Gill not to do this. The last thing they need is a byelection in a marginal seat. and Gill wants to run federally in an election that likely won't happen until Fall of 2025 so why would he feel the need to resign now? This byelection could have been avoided for over a year!

[DL]

I think this is the first time Conception Bay has gone Liberal in a gazillion years! But there is a bit of tendency in Atlantic Canada for byelections to favour the government since there is still this old clientelist attitude that unless you elect someone from the government side your roads will never get paved.

[DL]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

Newfoundland and Labrador already has a successful artistic community, but the province still has a great deal of what artists love - big buildings (or big spaces) with cheap rent.

How Canada’s Newfoundland And Labrador Builds An Amazing Creative Community
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonyounger/2022/04/17/how-canadas-newfoundland-and-labrador-builds-an-amazing-creative-community/?sh=1dfdc8a355e4

An influx of artists might even help the NDP down the road!

I think that's why the NDP tends to win a couple of inner city seats in St. John's

[DL]

Anyway, enough speculation,  there's a actual contest now happening! NDPs Daniel Blaikie to resign to work with the new Manitoba government. One has to imagine the Tories are going to make a play for it, even with the By-election environment likely to create anti-CPC consolidation among voters.

His resignation takes effect March 31st - so I wouldn't be surprised if Trudeau waits until September 30 to call a byelection for next November. I wonder if the plan is for his sister Rebecca Blaikie to run in his place. Se has run before and is a former party president and is living in Winnipeg these days

[DL]

That seat in it’s various incarnations has been NDP since 1965 except for two times it went Tory in 1974 and 2011

[DL]

I've heard that Jim Maloway is the most useless brain-dead member of the Manitoba NDP caucus - there is a reason he was given no role whatsoever in the Kinew gov't. He managed to lose Elnwood-Transcona in 2011 when the NDP had its best election ever. God forbid he tried to go back to Ottawa again...though he must be getting very old by now

[DL]

Getting over 10% is important since it qualifies a candidate to get half of all election expenses rebated by Elections Canada...it will be interesting to see how much each party actually spent in this byelection.

The Tories likely spent the maximum allowed by law during the writ period which is about $100,000, plus I'll bet the Tories also spent a vast sum before the byelection was called when they could spend as much as they wanted.

The Liberals likely spent a decent amount - maybe $60k to $70k

I'd wager that the NDP spent very, very little here - like maybe $5,000 (meaning that getting over 10% might save them $2,500).

FWIW back in 2013 there was a federal byelection in Durham when O'Toole was first elected. That time the NDP made a fully funded effort and threw everything but the kitchen sink at the seat - they managed to come in second with 26% but still wayyyyy behind the Tory. Moral of the story is unless you are rolling in dough, its a waste of money to spend the maximum just to lose by a slightly smaller margin

[DL]

Because if I'm an ABC voter whose main priority is stopping Poilievre, these last few byelections have given me zero reason to think that the NDP are a viable option.

I have news for you - NO ONE is going to stop Poilievre. The Tories will win the next election its a 100% certainty unless a meteor hits the earth. It won't matter of you vote Liberal or vote NDP or vote Green or vote Rhino (do they still exist) - the Tories will win. The only issue in the next election will be the balance of power between Liberals and NDP on the opposition benches.

The whole strategic voting argument only makes sense IF you live in a marginal seat and IF there is any doubt whatsoever as to who will win the election. The current situation is reminding me of the 1984 election - at the start of that campaign people thought the NDP was doomed (for a variety of reasons) - but once it became clear that the Tories under Mulroney were going to win in a landslide, people in ridings where the NDP had incumbents running or were clearly competitive "came home" to the NDP since it was clear that the Liberals were 100% certain to lose no matter what. 

[DL]

If the Tories fall just short of a majority - guess what, they will still have $40 million in the bank while all the other parties will be virtually bankrupted post campaign - meaning that PP would simply declare all votes to be confidence votes and dare the opposition parties to trigger a snap election that none has any money for.

The only possible way that we avoid this would be if the Tories were the largest party but the Liberals plus NDP had a majority between them - for that to happen the election would have to be quite close. Right now the Liberals would likely lose by about a hundred seats - ad I don't see what's going to change that. This government has "DEAD" written all over it - feels like the Liberals in 1984 or the Tories in 1993

[DL]

Yeah I agree. I just can't think of any election in Canadian politics where a governing party comes back from the kind of unpopularity the Liberals are seeing right now. Now when governments poll this badly, sometimes it leads to a third party surging to first place. Mike Harris in 1995 comes to mind, arguably even Trudeau himself in 2015. I don't see that coming from the NDP in 2025, but there's at least a historical precedent. And there's plenty of historical precedent for a third party to jump into official opposition. But when a government polls this badly, they have historically never come back to actually win.

Actually as I recall the PCs under Mulroney had incredibly low polling numbers in 1987 and were often in third place behind the Liberals AND the NDP - they went on to win a majority in 1988. The Alberta PCs under Allison Redfern were losing by double digits to Wildrose in 2012 - and then staged an upset and won. Supposedly the Manitoba NDP under Howard Pawley was practically in single digits in 1984-85 and then managed to win in 1986. Depending on what polls you want to believe the BC Liberals under Christy Clark were down by as much as 15 points in 2012-13 - then won in May 2013. The BC NDP was ridiculously unpopular in 1995 - then Harcourt quit and was replaced by Glen Clark and they won in 1996. The Ontario Liberals were ridiculously unpopular in 2012-13 then McGuinty quit, was succeeded by Kathleen Wynne and they won a majority in 2014 - so it does happen   

[DL]

Yeah I agree. I just can't think of any election in Canadian politics where a governing party comes back from the kind of unpopularity the Liberals are seeing right now. Now when governments poll this badly, sometimes it leads to a third party surging to first place. Mike Harris in 1995 comes to mind, arguably even Trudeau himself in 2015. I don't see that coming from the NDP in 2025, but there's at least a historical precedent. And there's plenty of historical precedent for a third party to jump into official opposition. But when a government polls this badly, they have historically never come back to actually win.

Actually as I recall the PCs under Mulroney had incredibly low polling numbers in 1987 and were often in third place behind the Liberals AND the NDP - they went on to win a majority in 1988. The Alberta PCs under Allison Redfern were losing by double digits to Wildrose in 2012 - and then staged an upset and won. Supposedly the Manitoba NDP under Howard Pawley was practically in single digits in 1984-85 and then managed to win in 1986. Depending on what polls you want to believe the BC Liberals under Christy Clark were down by as much as 15 points in 2012-13 - then won in May 2013. The BC NDP was ridiculously unpopular in 1995 - then Harcourt quit and was replaced by Glen Clark and they won in 1996. The Ontario Liberals were ridiculously unpopular in 2012-13 then McGuinty quit, was succeeded by Kathleen Wynne and they won a majority in 2014 - so it does happen  

1.The Progressive Conservatives bottomed out right around where the Liberals are now at 23%. in May of so of 1987. However, they were obviously still a first term government and they first increased their popularity by passing a series of legislation which showed that they were focused on governing and not on creating scandals. Then they promised I think about $1 billion to get Lucien Bouchard elected in Lac St Jean, whose victory enormously boosted party morale. Finally they succeeded in turning the 1988 election into a referendum on free trade with the United States.

2. I don't think the Manitoba NDP were that unpopular around 1984-1985. I could be wrong, but I think it's possible you're confusing this timing with 1988 when the Manitoba NDP bottomed out at 6% in the polls after the government fell and before Gary Doer was elected party leader. (Doer himself refused to be referred to as Premier at that time.)

3.The B.C NDP was also a first term government in 1995 and there was a Glen Clarkmania in British Columbia for some reason after he was elected leader and Premier but before he called the election. I heard Glen Clark when he gave a speech at some 'meet the NDP leadership candidates thing and I wasn't impressed because he delivered his entire speech in a (kind of) monotone yell. So, I didn't even see him as charismatic but as a person who was trying to be charismatic.

4.The Ontario Liberals kept getting reelected because the Ontario Progressive Conservatives kept 'snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.' In 2014 Tim Hudak promised '100,000 civil servants would be fired' and people did the math and realized he could not cut that number without cutting teachers and nurses.

So what are you saying is that when an unpopular governing party manages to stage a comeback and get re-elected against all odds - it happens for a reason! Who knew?

[DL]

Some potentially interesting news on the byelection front. Looks like the NDP is going to make a play for Lasalle-Emard. Craig Sauve who is a longtime and well-known city councillor will run for the NDP.

With the Liberals so unpopular these days and much of that riding having voted QS provincially...stranger things have happened.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/independent-city-councillor-aims-to-run-for-ndp-in-david-lamettis-former-montreal-riding

[DL]

It’s worth noting that in 2021 the NDP took 20% in Lasalle-Emard-Verdun despite spending almost nothing and just having a paper candidate

[DL]

FWIW there have been two recent byelections in Newfoundland - one where a seemingly safe Tory seat went Liberal and another where a seemingly safe Liberal seat went Tory - go figure

[DL]

But it's a must win for the Liberals, because it's the kind of seat they need to get if they want a majority.

Never mind a majority - its the kind of seat they need to get if they even want to regain official party status! This was one of their near misses in 2022 when they only won 9 seats. They ought to be able to pick up Milton even if they just had a "dead cat bounce" and gained 10 seats

[DL]

Total fiasco for Bonnie Crombie. She should resign