🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Not looking good for the Liberals in Milton with 1/3 of the polls reporting.

I was gonna ask, where are you getting results? Elections Ontario doesn't have it, nor Grenier

https://rtr.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/en/electoral-district

I'd say it's a Progressive Conservative hold.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

But it's a must win for the Liberals, because it's the kind of seat they need to get if they want a majority.

Never mind a majority - its the kind of seat they need to get if they even want to regain official party status! This was one of their near misses in 2022 when they only won 9 seats. They ought to be able to pick up Milton even if they just had a "dead cat bounce" and gained 10 seats

Milton is deceivingly Liberal.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Not looking good for the Liberals in Milton with 1/3 of the polls reporting.

I was gonna ask, where are you getting results? Elections Ontario doesn't have it, nor Grenier

https://rtr.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/en/electoral-district

I'd say it's a Progressive Conservative hold.

Thanks. I was thinking about Milton when I clicked on the link, didn't realize I was looking at LKM numbers. Milton's not quite a 56-23 lead for the PCs lmao.

But yeah Milton looks like a PC hold, and not even particularly close tbh. Considering they barely held on in 2022, never mind the margins Van Koverden gets federally, a 10 point lead is very good for the PCs.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This seemed pertinent.

https://twitter.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1782486999720509910

[adma]

Interesting how New Blue's ahead of Green in both byelections.

As for Milton--face it, the Tories continue to have big-tent clout in the 905.  (Plus, since we've been talking about it re BC provincial figures, let's not forget that federal polling might have its provincial echo in this case, i.e. there's unspoken kinship w/the Durham federal byelection in the inherent present strength of the Conservative brand.)

LKM: I had a feeling that the Libs were going to surge back to 2nd--they actually had a serious candidate (the mayor of Lucan-Biddulph) rather than a sacrificial nobody.  And yes, at least when it comes to byelections, the NDP's reverting to Howie Hampton-era norms, Marit Stiles or no Marit Stiles...

[adma]

Milton's complete:

HAMID, ZEE( PCP ): 12880 (47.04)
NAIDOO HARRIS, GALEN( LIB ): 10473 (38.25)
STRACHAN, EDIE( NDP ): 1851 (6.76)
SPINA, JOHN( NBO ): 1102 (4.02)
HUTTON, KYLE( GPO ): 755 (2.76)   
WEENING, FREDERICK( ONP ): 111 (.41)
WALTON, TONY( FRP ): 101 (.37)
TURMEL, JOHN( IND ): 64 (.23)   
VIDA, ARABELLA( IND ): 42 (.15)

27.72% turnout

[DL]

Total fiasco for Bonnie Crombie. She should resign

[adma]

LKM complete

PINSONNEAULT, STEVE( PCP ):  15649 (56.85)
BURGHARDT-JESSON, CATHY( LIB ): 6208 (22.55)   
SHAILER, KATHRYN( NDP ): 2973 (10.80)
BENN, KEITH( NBO ): 1513 (5.50)
TILGNER, ANDRAENA( GPO ): 429 (1.56)
CAMPBELL, STEPHEN R.( NAP ): 360 (1.31)
WORKMAN, CYNTHIA( ONP ): 310 (1.13)
WALTON, HILDA( FRP ): 87 (.32)   

30.25% turnout

(odd that there'd be better turnout in a less "competitive" byelection than Milton--then again, it might generically reflect rural vs 905-suburban civic values)

[adma]

Oddity of LKM is how the figures inadvertently mirror those in the federal Durham byelection (57.6 CPC, 22.6 LIB, 10.1 NDP).  And the PCs were 2 points down from the '22 general (which might be both the Monte personal vote and the profile Lib byelection candidate talking).

I wouldn't yet jump to conclusions about Bonnie Crombie resigning; though you can be sure there'll be concern trolling over whether Marit Stiles ought to resign or just combine forces w/Bonnie (never mind that Lib & NDP together wouldn't have defeated the Tories in Milton--though those two *and* Green would have).

[toaster]

The Liberal result is lower under Bonnie than it was under DelDuca.  That is something I wasn't expecting.  This is not good for Bonnie Crombie. As for Marit Stiles, not good either, but there was no expectation here for her to do well, so maybe that's why it doesn't feel as bad. We still have 2 more years of this Ford government, and we've seen them 'reward' ridings that vote for them with infrastructure, so that could have been an incentive (and again, especially the 413).

[adma]

The Liberal result is lower under Bonnie than it was under DelDuca.  That is something I wasn't expecting.  This is not good for Bonnie Crombie. As for Marit Stiles, not good either, but there was no expectation here for her to do well, so maybe that's why it doesn't feel as bad. We still have 2 more years of this Ford government, and we've seen them 'reward' ridings that vote for them with infrastructure, so that could have been an incentive (and again, especially the 413).

Keep in mind, though, that *federal* Liberal polling is a *lot* lower now than it was under Del Duca--that is, there's an unspoken symbiosis btw/the effectiveness of Ford's attacks on Crombie and a broader Liberal brand malaise.  In '22, Milton still felt like a split-ticket place; these days it seems much, much likelier that it'll go w/a federal Poilievre wave in the 905.  And whether one likes it or not, Ford's in touch w/a certain vox populi when he speaks of the majority "not giving two hoots" about what his opposition's all wound up about.  (And y'know, Zee Hamid's practically a Liberal himself)

[Hatman 🍁]

Some thoughts,

As expected, polling in Milton was way off. Very hard riding to poll; probably very few landlines. LKM polling was pretty good though, which is to be expected for rural ridings.
Interesting choice for both pollsters to exclude New Blue, considering they broke 5% in LKM in 2022 (ahead of the Greens) and ended up doing the same thing in the by-election (as well as surpassing the Greens in Milton.. poor Kyle Hutton!)

I'd say the result in Milton is very unexpected. I guess the unpopularity of the federal Liberals is seeping into provincial politics as well. I'd imagine turnout was a big factor; a lot of the new residents of the riding (Milton added 7,000 new voters since the last election) who may be more progressive probably stayed home. Anyway, now we know why Bonnie didn't choose to run here. It would have been even more embarrassing had she been on the ballot.

The only saving grace for the Liberals is they finished second in LKM. Big whoop. But, that underscored a terrible night for the NDP (and the Greens). Of course, no reason for either party to really try.

Here are the swings:

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
PC: -2.0%
LIB: +13.0%
NDP: -8.0%
NBP: -0.9%
GRN: -2.4%

PC hold (two party avg. swing: -7.5%)

Milton
PC: +4.0%
LIB: -0.5%
NDP: -2.9%
NBP: -0.0%
GRN: -1.4%

PC hold (+2.2%)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

While letting the Tories widen the gap in a seat like Milton is undoubtedly an embarrassment for the Liberals, some OLP people are claiming that federal dynamics made it hard for them to turn out voters, because not many people are interested in voting for someone who calls themselves a Liberal right now due to its association with the federal government (maybe they should change their name? Ontario United, maybe?) But if this really is a significant factor, the silver lining for Ontario Liberals is that by 2026, this may no longer be an issue.

[Hatman 🍁]

While letting the Tories widen the gap in a seat like Milton is undoubtedly an embarrassment for the Liberals, some OLP people are claiming that federal dynamics made it hard for them to turn out voters, because not many people are interested in voting for someone who calls themselves a Liberal right now due to its association with the federal government (maybe they should change their name? Ontario United, maybe?) But if this really is a significant factor, the silver lining for Ontario Liberals is that by 2026, this may no longer be an issue.

Indeed, Ontarians love to elect different parties in Ottawa and Queen's Park.

[adma]

I'd say the result in Milton is very unexpected. I guess the unpopularity of the federal Liberals is seeping into provincial politics as well. I'd imagine turnout was a big factor; a lot of the new residents of the riding (Milton added 7,000 new voters since the last election) who may be more progressive probably stayed home.

*Are* they "more progressive", though?  While in practice, the newest parts *have* been more Lib-leaning in the past, I think they're more like free agents--and oftentimes even stealth "Ford Progressives" a la the NDP/PC swingers in Brampton in '22.

As for the NDP, I think their problem is that they display more "pretensions to power" than their ground crew really merits in cases like this--that is, we're dealing with results that are in an awkward void btw/genuine viability and the sort of more "authentic" throwing-a-seat circumstances of UK byelections where the Lib Dems just have a token-ballot-option 2 or 3%.

And as for New Blue in LKM--well, I'm sort of surprised that New Blue's been this viable for this long given the sour-grapes egotism behind its genesis.  But otherwise, I suspect Wallaceburg's to blame for the good result--a rust-belt town that used to be anomalously strong for the NDP but more recently has been anomalously strong for the dissident right...