Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2016 Presidential Election if non-Hispanic White voters had split in the same way in every state.

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 48.2% - 292 EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 46.1% - 246 EV

(aka: how to permanent Republican Senate majority)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The 2012 election results by county in the Ferguson Scenario. What is the state map?

I came up with this state map:

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I'm bored (Alaska is the continuation of the purple seen in the North East, not ordinary blue)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.

I gave OK to Romney because the county map reminded me of Ford's win in 1976.
I even entertained giving Kansas to Ferguson! I guess Johnson County netted Romney a lot of votes.
And I think I had a lapse on Michigan thinking Washtenaw and Wayne were on 60% while they are actually on 70%.
But in general, I am surprised by how accurate I was! Especially given I know zero - zilch - nada - about this Ferguson Scenario which I imagine is your alternate history timeline.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.

I gave OK to Romney because the county map reminded me of Ford's win in 1976.
I even entertained giving Kansas to Ferguson! I guess Johnson County netted Romney a lot of votes.
And I think I had a lapse on Michigan thinking Washtenaw and Wayne were on 60% while they are actually on 70%.
But in general, I am surprised by how accurate I was! Especially given I know zero - zilch - nada - about this Ferguson Scenario which I imagine is your alternate history timeline.

It is an alternate history timeline, and mainly an electoral scenario which I devised, as I haven't gone into full detail about it. Ferguson is obviously a fictional character, a former Senator/Governor of Texas who is a descendant of some RL Texas Governors in the last century. He beats an unpopular incumbent Romney in 2012 and wins reelection by a landslide four years later against Senator William Pryor, Jr. of Alabama (who is in RL a federal judge, but here is a Republican politician). In fact, I'll go ahead and post the county map for that election. I'm curious as to what state map you think would be the outcome here:

Also, I forgot to mention that Georgia is a 50% Republican state, not >60% Republican. The actual state map for the first election is this:

Wow Ferguson breaks 90% in Elliott County?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Wow Ferguson breaks 90% in Elliott County?

Yes. He receives 94.13% there. Elliott County is Ferguson's best county in the mainland United States, and his second best county-equivalent overall after Kusilvak Census Area, Alaska (where he receives 97% of the vote). What do you think would be the state map here, though? I don't think you saw that question.

Yes, I saw that question but I'll answer it later because right now I'm using my cellular phone and doing stuff with maps from it is complicated

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Very close. The only state you got wrong was Oklahoma, which Ferguson wins by 0.90% (close margins in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties +Democratic strength in Little Dixie). South Dakota, rather than North Dakota, is a plurality Ferguson win, and Michigan is >60% Democratic. Kansas is also majority Republican (rather than plurality), and Idaho falls just short of the 60% mark for Romney. But otherwise, very close.

I gave OK to Romney because the county map reminded me of Ford's win in 1976.
I even entertained giving Kansas to Ferguson! I guess Johnson County netted Romney a lot of votes.
And I think I had a lapse on Michigan thinking Washtenaw and Wayne were on 60% while they are actually on 70%.
But in general, I am surprised by how accurate I was! Especially given I know zero - zilch - nada - about this Ferguson Scenario which I imagine is your alternate history timeline.

It is an alternate history timeline, and mainly an electoral scenario which I devised, as I haven't gone into full detail about it. Ferguson is obviously a fictional character, a former Senator/Governor of Texas who is a descendant of some RL Texas Governors in the last century. He beats an unpopular incumbent Romney in 2012 and wins reelection by a landslide four years later against Senator William Pryor, Jr. of Alabama (who is in RL a federal judge, but here is a Republican politician). In fact, I'll go ahead and post the county map for that election. I'm curious as to what state map you think would be the outcome here:

This is what I came up with:

We can call it the modern version of the Johnson landslide?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).

Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).

Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially

Why so? Was it specific county results that you struggled over?

I was struggling in deciding if there enough urban counties Ferguson 60% to make the state 60%, or in other cases enough urban counties Ferguson 70% to make the state 70%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is a modernized version of the Johnson election, with some differences (i.e. Arizona and Louisiana being Democratic here, Ferguson running at Obama-2012 levels in the remainder of the Deep South).

Wow. I honestly found this more difficult than the previous, initially

Why so? Was it specific county results that you struggled over?

I was struggling in deciding if there enough urban counties Ferguson 60% to make the state 60%, or in other cases enough urban counties Ferguson 70% to make the state 70%

I see. I know you had the same problem with Michigan when deciding on the 2012 map.

Do you have a thread with your alternate timeline? Where can I find it?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2016 Presidential Election from an Alternate Universe
At the end of President Colin Powell's term, Vice President John Sununu decides not to be a candidate, knowing that after eight years with a moderate White House, the conservatives in the party think it's their turn. The economy is good, but not great. Tammy Baldwin accuses people in both parties of sexism and not being able to move on from memories of the Kassebaum affair.

Secretary Chuck Hagel / Senator Marco Rubio (R) 47.31% - 295 EV
Senator Tammy Baldwin / Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) 49.71% - 243 EV

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Alternate UK Election 2019: Brexit Party and Lib Dems break out

Seat map (left), Gains (right)

Conservative - 28.79% of the vote - 238 seats in the House of Commons
Liberal Democrats - 22.95% - 65 seats
Labour - 21.78% - 160 seats
Brexit Party - 12.24% - 104 seats
Green - 5.24% - 1 seat
SNP - 4.54% - 55 seats
Plaid Cymru - 1.07% - 6 seats
Sinn Féin - 0.59% - 6 seats
DUP - 0.56% - 6 seats
Alliance - 0.52% - 2 seats
UUP - 0.40% - 2 seats
SDLP - 0.39% - 2 seats
Others - 0.94% (combined) - 3 seats (combined)

I think a Conservative-Brexit coalition is likely if these were the results.

Maps and data from principalfish.co.uk

I think you really exaggerated with the Brexit Party... (also with the Lib Dems, but less)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Here's another county map. This is the map of the 2008 election results by county in the Ferguson Scenario. Mitt Romney, then the incumbent Governor of Massachusetts, defeats Congressman Dennis Kucinich of Ohio to succeed President Al Gore:

What are the results by state, based upon this map? And what are your thoughts about it?

That's my take.

Bush - Dukakis rehash?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2016 without third parties

So for this I added the right wing third party vote (Johnson, McMullin, Castle, whoever else was on the ballot) to Trump's total and the left wing third party (mostly Stein) to Clinton's total in the states where nobody hit 50%. And here's the total:

Trump + RW 3rd Parties: 342 EV; 49.9%
Clinton + LW 3rd Parties: 196 EV; 49.2%

Why is the total not 100%?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2016 without third parties

So for this I added the right wing third party vote (Johnson, McMullin, Castle, whoever else was on the ballot) to Trump's total and the left wing third party (mostly Stein) to Clinton's total in the states where nobody hit 50%. And here's the total:

Trump + RW 3rd Parties: 342 EV; 49.9%
Clinton + LW 3rd Parties: 196 EV; 49.2%

Why is the total not 100%?

Write-ins and candidates like Rocky De La Fuente who don't really fit in either way. plus I didn't bother adding candidates who got less than 0.01% of the PV

A lot of write-ins were Bernie Sanders. I would also consider Rocky right-wing, although maybe I am wrong.


Ricardo De La Fuente - Rocky's son - is apparently more successful than his father, by the way, since he is now the Democratic nominee for Texas's 27th district.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why is the total not 100%?

Write-ins and candidates like Rocky De La Fuente who don't really fit in either way. plus I didn't bother adding candidates who got less than 0.01% of the PV

A lot of write-ins were Bernie Sanders. I would also consider Rocky right-wing, although maybe I am wrong.


Ricardo De La Fuente - Rocky's son - is apparently more successful than his father, by the way, since he is now the Democratic nominee for Texas's 27th district.

The De La Fuentes don't have much of an ideology. Rocky ran as a Democrat for president in 2016 at first, then he became a Republican to run in a whole bunch of senate primaries in 2018 and for president and congress in 2020. Ricardo's always run as a Democrat. Rocky III too. They just join the party which is most convenient for them to run whatever perennial campaign they want to run.

Does the American Delta Party have an ideology? I am asking seriously.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Does the American Delta Party have an ideology? I am asking seriously.

https://rocky101.com/en_us/en/issues-2/

Seems generally left leaning - single payer and amnesty for illegal immigrants. But also supports charter schools and raising the Social Security retirement age.

Thank you!

I imagined something quite different to be honest.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Here's a revised map of the 2008 election in the Ferguson Scenario, this time utilizing the Wikipedia template:

By my calculation, Mitt Romney carries 2,574 counties, while Dennis Kucinich wins 570. Romney wins every county in nine states: Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Nevada, and Vermont. He also wins all but two counties in Florida and Kansas. Kucinich wins every county in Rhode Island (and of course the District of Columbia). Kucinich would win nearly one hundred more counties than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and he would lose the popular vote by 12% compared to her 2% win.

He accomplishes this by winning many white rural counties in Texas, Oklahoma, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana, among other states, that she lost, but loses many of the suburban and smaller urban counties she carried (i.e. the Collar Counties of Chicago and Philadelphia, Orange County, Fort Bend County, the Suburban Counties of Atlanta, Baltimore County, the Suburban Counties of Denver, San Diego County, Northern Virginia, etc.), thus explaining the difference between the two elections. Romney's best counties are concentrated in the Mormon Corridor, Nebraska, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of the Deep South.

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

Seattle, the Bay Area, Hawaii, Vermont seem relatively poor for Kucinich. Also Massachusetts, although it is not so surprising as Romney is from there.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Interesting.
What is Dennis Kucinich's platform?
I find it particularly intriguing that he wins a bunch of Ancestral Dem™ counties but does pretty poor in many stereotypically uberleft places.
He also holds on pretty well in the Arrowhead, Rhode Island and Western Massachusetts, which have all a White Working Class Liberals flavour.

Something very similar to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Kucinich_2008_presidential_campaign#Campaign_platform, although I haven't completely elaborated upon it. Romney would run on a platform similar to that which he ran on as Governor of Massachusetts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney#2002_gubernatorial_campaign. So in other words, Kucinich would be a progressive populist while Romney would be a fiscal conservative but social moderate. And which stereotypical "uberleft" places would you be referring to, that Kucinich would do poorly in?

Seattle, the Bay Area, Hawaii, Vermont seem relatively poor for Kucinich. Also Massachusetts, although it is not so surprising as Romney is from there.

I see. Any thoughts about the corresponding 2012 map, posted below it, and the swings that take place? Or the white vote and Senatorial maps that I've posted?

My thoughts on the 2012 map are:

Why is the White vote in Louisiana so less Republican than in the rest of the Deep South?
Whereas it is Florida outside of the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach area which seems to be as Republican as the Deep South.
Why did Ferguson beat Romney in real-life blood-red Collin, Denton, Montgomery counties in Texas but not in the Inland Empire?
What is Romney's best county? I would assume Franklin County, Idaho?

Do you have a swing map?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

4) Yes, I have a swing map of the states, but not of the counties. Here's that map:

Anything you notice about the swings? I have some county flip maps as well which I'll post later.

Some of the strongest swings are in unexpected places (Oregon, Kentucky. I am not really surprised by North Dakota as it has a tendency of trending against incumbents).
Rhode Island is the odd man out but that's obvious because in 2008 Romney destroyed Kucinich in all New England bar Rhodes so Ferguson had less to gain.
What surprises me the most is the comparatively little swing in Minnesota, especially given that Ferguson flipped an insane number of counties.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I was surprised by it as well, when I calculated these figures. And here's the next swing map, from the 2012 to the 2016 elections:

Anything noticeable about this map?

California and New Mexico are interesting.
Maybe Democrats were already maxed out, or maybe Pryor has a secret appeal to Latinos.
Massachusetts and Rhode Island are of course hellholes for Pryor.
The fact that Pryor bleeds more support than in most other places in the Ancestrally Republican Belt like Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas is interesting. (Idaho and Utah have obviously to do with Romney's faith)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Henry Ferguson picks up 1,095 counties that Mitt Romney won in 2008, while Romney picks up just two Kucinich counties (Acadia and Vermilion Parishes, Louisiana). The universal swing of every state towards Ferguson is in evidence on this map. The county swing is comparable to those of 1964 and 1976, when Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter picked up 1,362 and 1,582 counties, respectively, in those years.

What happened in those two parishes? Especially considering that Ferguson picked up several surronding ones?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Which Republican presidential candidate received the most votes in each state.

Donald Trump 2016

Mitt Romney 2012

John McCain 2008

George W. Bush 2004

Ronald Reagan 1984

Richard Nixon 1972

Dwight Eisenhower 1956

Dwight Eisenhower 1952

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Which Democratic presidential candidate received the most votes in each state.

Hillary Clinton 2016

Barack Obama 2012

Barack Obama 2008

Bill Clinton 1996

Bill Clinton 1992

Jimmy Carter 1976

Lyndon Johnson 1964

Franklin Roosevelt 1932