2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Dr. Arch]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

This is still a bit worrying tho...

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Until the morrow...

Why do they need to meet that metric by the end of the early voting period when they have until Tuesday? He's imposing an outdated and arbitrary deadline that no longer makes sense.

Part of the horserace narrative that he's been going for from the beginning.

[Non Swing Voter]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

This is still a bit worrying tho...

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Until the morrow...

Why do they need to meet that metric by the end of the early voting period when they have until Tuesday? He's imposing an outdated and arbitrary deadline that no longer makes sense.

How many votes are Democrats adding daily in Clark/NV as a whole?

He has links on his site that go directly to the SOS's spreadsheet for that kind of info. 

[GeneralMacArthur]

Anyone want to give me a no-bullsh**t assessment of Nevada so I can go to sleep?

Are Dems actually in trouble?

Are Republicans gonna be able to steal it due to late VBM ballots?

Is Ralston for real or is he just screwing with us?

[Dr. Arch]

Anyone want to give me a no-bullsh**t assessment of Nevada so I can go to sleep?

Are Dems actually in trouble?

Are Republicans gonna be able to steal it due to late VBM ballots?

Is Ralston for real or is he just screwing with us?

No

No

The latter.

Sleep well.

[lfromnj]

Anyone want to give me a no-bullsh**t assessment of Nevada so I can go to sleep?

Are Dems actually in trouble?

Are Republicans gonna be able to steal it due to late VBM ballots?

Is Ralston for real or is he just screwing with us?

No SCOTUS will not strike down  Nevada's VBM deadline because a state can choose the deadline(I assume at least before December 14th,) Wisconsin chose Election day and Scotus said election day it is, Nevada's law is different and SCOTUS will not touch it. The Trump campaign sued IIRC a few months ago but SCOTUS didn't change anything. The only thing they would need to touch is perhaps specify the date the EC must be certified as the last day.

[Rep Jessica]

Anyone want to give me a no-bullsh**t assessment of Nevada so I can go to sleep?

Are Dems actually in trouble?

Are Republicans gonna be able to steal it due to late VBM ballots?

Is Ralston for real or is he just screwing with us?

I am seeing signs that this election will be quite close and we'll be waiting late into the night to find out who wins. Nevada could be closer then it has been in a long time and NC and Florida will go to Trump!

[Non Swing Voter]

Anyone want to give me a no-bullsh**t assessment of Nevada so I can go to sleep?

Are Dems actually in trouble?

Are Republicans gonna be able to steal it due to late VBM ballots?

Is Ralston for real or is he just screwing with us?

I am seeing signs that this election will be quite close and we'll be waiting late into the night to find out who wins. Nevada could be closer then it has been in a long time and NC and Florida will go to Trump!

What pray tell do NC and Florida have to do with this discussion about Nevada VBM ballots?

[philly09]

Anyone want to give me a no-bullsh**t assessment of Nevada so I can go to sleep?

Are Dems actually in trouble?

Are Republicans gonna be able to steal it due to late VBM ballots?

Is Ralston for real or is he just screwing with us?

I am seeing signs that this election will be quite close and we'll be waiting late into the night to find out who wins. Nevada could be closer then it has been in a long time and NC and Florida will go to Trump!

What pray tell do NC and Florida have to do with this discussion about Nevada VBM ballots?

Not to mention I thought NC is swinging towards Biden.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633

Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

https://twitter.com/HatRuben/status/1321334024175001601

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633

Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

https://twitter.com/HatRuben/status/1321334024175001601

Bet you Ralston blocks him.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633

Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

https://twitter.com/HatRuben/status/1321334024175001601

Bet you Ralston blocks him.

that's me lol

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633

Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

https://twitter.com/HatRuben/status/1321334024175001601

Bet you Ralston blocks him.

that's me lol

Haha, well now.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912

Texas is going to be Biden's sneak attack state, isn't it?

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633
Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

https://twitter.com/HatRuben/status/1321334024175001601

Bet you Ralston blocks him.

that's me lol

Haha, well now.

The key here is "pending mail counts," which he says every night since those aren't in until the morning. Tonight, he chose to go for an alarmist tone for reasons most of us recognize.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633
Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

https://twitter.com/HatRuben/status/1321334024175001601

Bet you Ralston blocks him.

that's me lol

Haha, well now.

The key here is "pending mail counts," which he says every night since those aren't in until the morning. Tonight, he chose to go for an alarmist tone for reasons most of us recognize.

Reading in the comments that Clark County might be having some processing delays. Similar to what we are seeing in Pima County, AZ or what we saw in the Philly Suburbs. Compare the Clark return rate to the Washoe return rate which is 12 points higher.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912

Austin grows like an African country though, at 3-4% annual population growth.

So, that turnout increase in raw numbers is nothing unusual.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633
Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

https://twitter.com/HatRuben/status/1321334024175001601

Bet you Ralston blocks him.

that's me lol

Haha, well now.

The key here is "pending mail counts," which he says every night since those aren't in until the morning. Tonight, he chose to go for an alarmist tone for reasons most of us recognize.

Reading in the comments that Clark County might be having some processing delays. Similar to what we are seeing in Pima County, AZ or what we saw in the Philly Suburbs. Compare the Clark return rate to the Washoe return rate which is 12 points higher.

They will likely catch up over the weekend, if not earlier. Expect a burst of ballot someday soon, and Ralston will have his Wasserman moment.

[Stockdale for Veep]

How is the mail delayed in NV? Isn't it just going to Vegas and back?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1321262673170960385

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1321262673170960385

Uhh... Yeah... We've known this for a while. Who is this guy anyways?

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1321262673170960385

Uhh... Yeah... We've known this for a while. Who is this guy anyways?

Eyyyy, it’s DaNumbersGuy

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 10/27/20 AM UPDATE (Day 7 of Full Reports)

Voting slowed down slightly after the largest wave of the Weekend bump, but still continue apace, with almost a full seven days to get ballots dropped off at local ballot boxes.

Cumulative TOT Ballots Received: 1,371,194 (68.5% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).     +9.1% Daily Jump
                                                                 (46.5% of 2020 TOTAL RV)          +6.2% Daily Jump

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested in tracking.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7678893#msg7678893

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7682160#msg7682160

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7693065#msg7693065

Again, I will try to avoid cluttering the thread in too much detail with County level coverage, but rather focus primarily on the top-line numbers and route some of the county-level granularity elsewhere, and perhaps occasionally call out interesting trends in certain places, and possibly provide another update in the OR 2020 State Megathread in the US-SEN & Congressional Board.

10/27/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART BY PARTY REG:



1.) REG DEMs now leading PUBs by +273k Raw Votes vs the HRC > Trump +220k DEM Raw Vote FINAL Margin.

2.) NAV / 3rd Party Voters actually slipped slightly and REG PUB raw votes narrowly took the lead back from Yesterday.

10/27/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART % BY PARTY REG:



1.) DEM Cumulative Raw Vote % are continuing to decrease (as anticipated) and PUB Cumulative Raw Vote % is trickling up, and REG MISC have now inched up to 27% of the Raw Vote % by Reg.

2.) These spreads will likely flatten a bit, especially with what will likely continue to be a surge of MISC Party voters as we move into the last Week of the Election.

10/27/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative % Turnout by Partisan Registration:



1.) The Turnout Gap dropped a bit to only a +12.5% DEM TO lead in terms of turning out their registered voters to the polls.

2.) 60.6% of REG DEMs have now had their ballots received versus 48.1% of Registered PUBs and 32.2% of REG 3rd Party / NAVs.

New Metric I introduced Yesterday: Total Ballots Yet to be Received by Political Registration:



1.) As I noted Yesterday the shrinking gap between outstanding REG DEM and REG PUB ballots, will likely not only shrink the % TO margins, and may or may not provide an opportunity to reduce the RAW Vote spread between REG DEMs and PUBs. (Pub Silver Lining).

2.) For anyone following Non-Affiliated Voting numbers have surged in OR as a result of DMV based Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) and there are a ton of potential votes to be mined for both Parties (OK--- I'll skip the horserace narrative slightly since reality is that in many parts of OR these will skew DEM in 2020 and overall likely Statewide by significant numbers).

3.) Turnout levels of Non-Affiliated Voters will be key in 2020, assuming both campaigns can mobilize base voters.

Now let's look at a significant Dump of Daily votes from 10/26/20 AM to 10/27/AM reporting:



1.)  182.4k New Ballots Received, but DEMs now only shrink to a daily NET RAW VOTE lead of 7.8k to add the bank already cumulatively received.

If we look at the Daily Update from a % Chart by Party Registration:



1.) This actually appears to be a relatively favorable number for Republicans compared to any other daily update, so really it will be interesting to see if this trend continues to move in the PUBs direction until what will likely be a final Election Weekend and Election Day DEM low-propensity vote dump (Although granted PUBs have plenty of their own low-propensity voters as well).

I will likely post something additional Tonight on the other thread, maybe including some County level data and maybe even pull some of the 2018 GE Election by date/county for comparative analysis, which I was tracking during that election...

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1321262673170960385

VBM ballots are counted before election day ballots in Florida. What the hell is this bozo talking about?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1321262673170960385

Uhh... Yeah... We've known this for a while. Who is this guy anyways?

Isn't Florida going to have most of their mail/early votes counted by poll closing?

Edit: looks like it got answered as I was posting.