Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at the cleanest possible 3-11 GA map

[ProgressiveModerate]

It’s really interesting how Kebab and DeKalb are both almost perfect sizes to be 1 district

[ProgressiveModerate]

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Definately. GA-14 has a lot of R votes to shed, and can take in northern Cobb without putting it in immediate danger. Infact, I'd argue if the GOP doesn't, they're probably making a dummymander.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just a reminder y’all this ain’t necessarily the final map

[ProgressiveModerate]

Technically you can create 6 semi-reasonble black VRA districts, though this would never happen for a variety of reasons nor is it the right thing to do.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://districtr.org/plan/129625

Quirky map with high deviation I carved out for GA. One of the few decent things about it is district lines follow natural boundaries (i.e. rivers) in Southern GA. All percentages below are of the 3 way vote (Democratic+Republican+Libertarian) for the 2016 presidential race.

GA01: In southern GA. Heavily Republican; went for Trump 67.49-30.59%.
GA02: Similar to the real life 1st district inthat it includes Savannah. Its border follows the Altamaha River's natural course. Red by a comfortable but not overwhelming margin: went for Trump 54.58-42.76%. Is not black-majority, black-plurality or even black-opportunity since the black population is just 39%.
GA03: Similar to the real life 2nd district, but a lot redder, as it doesn't stretch out to include Macon, but instead includes rural land along the FL-GA border (including Thomasville). Trump's margin was decent but hardly overwhelming: 52.26-45.65%.
GA04: Really weird district that stretches down from Northeast GA (including Rabun County) to take in Athens' suburbs and the city of Macon. Macon keeps the margin down, but it's still quite solidly red. Trump won here 61.18-36.25%.
GA05: In northern GA; is basically a mix of the real-life 9th and 14th districts. Overwhelmingly red and by far the reddest seat in the state. While Trump didn't manage as much as 68% in any one of the other 13 districts, he won by a massive 78.25-18.83% margin out here, making this one of the most deeply Republican seats in the nation.
GA06: Along the GA-SC border. Includes Augusta and its suburbs, as well as Athens. Borderline competitive, but has an obvious GOP tilt - Trump won here 51.45-45.71%.
GA07: The first Atlantan seat, this district includes part of the heart of Atlanta and takes in the southern part of Fulton County, but it also stretches south and west. Part of it lies on the AL-GA border. It's got a very high black population and is definitely a black opportunity district. The margins here are comfortable for the Democrats - Clinton fell just shy of a 20 point margin (58.4-38.6%). Biden doubtless broke 60% here in 2020.
GA08: Includes the entirety of one of the two counties that's more than 80% Democratic, Clayton County. However, the rest of the district is fairly right-leaning. The district is plurality black and very racially polarized. Clinton won here by single digits (53.09% to 44.75%) but given the trends in the Atlanta metro area, it's safe to guess Biden won by north of 15 points in 2020.
GA09: Similar to Loudermilk's seat inthat it's a red seat in the outer suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta, but instead of being more northwest of Atlanta, it's more northeast. Trump won 65.69% to Clinton's 30.21%. My guess would be Biden crossed 35% or came close to it, while Trump did not manage 65%, in 2020.
GA10: Includes the more Democratic half of Gwinnett County (with the other half in the 9th), including Lawrenceville. It also includes a bit of Fulton County's Buckhead area (including Johns Creek) and about half of exurban Walton County. Went for Clinton by a somewhat narrow margin - 52.06-44.39% - but I'd guess Biden won over 55% of the vote and got a 15 point margin or higher.
GA11: Southern DeKalb County as well as land to its south. Bluest and blackest district in the entire state and by a lot for both. The only majority-black district in the state (over 62% black) and very blue. Clinton got 78.31% to Trump's 19.38%. In 2020, Biden most likely broke 80% in the district, and Trump won like 17% or 18% if even that much.
GA12: Includes all of heavily red and exurban Cherokee County, plus Fulton County's Buckhead region (and a tiny part of east-central Fulton County), a sliver of western Gwinnett County, and much of northern DeKalb County. Trump won here by 6.4% (50.85-44.45%), but I'd be surprised if Biden didn't flip the district in 2020.
GA13: Includes most of Cobb County (leaves out its southernmost tier) and small chunks of Fulton. Narrowly broke for Trump, giving him a 49.75% plurality (Clinton got 45.5%). I'd guess Biden won this seat and by over 5 points.
GA14: Drawn initially as an anti-MTG gerrymander, this includes MTG's hometown of Rome, and some ultrared areas in northwestern GA, but an arm stretches out east to take in Douglasville, southern Cobb County (very blue) and a large part of western Fulton County. It went for Clinton 54.95-42.21%, and I would guess Biden won by 20-25 points in 2020.

What is the goal of this map? It's not really that effective of a gerrymander either way

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would obviously not be helpful in aiding a GA VRA challenge, but it is still theoretically possible to draw 2 majority black VAP districts that don't take in any part of Atlanta. In the map above, it's interesting that GA-02 is under Biden + 10 but GA-01 was over Biden + 25 despite having the same topline black population %. This is probably because GA-01 has to pick up some what liberals in Savannah and Augusta which aren't as georacially segregated as many other Southern cities.

In theory, you can draw 6 functional majority black seats in GA, but proportionality really only requires 4, and if you were to get a 5th seat it'd come out of Atlanta, not rural Southern GA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This Map is going to get struck down too?

What would be the New Map?

TL:DR:

There are two (consolidated) cases against Georgia's maps in district court.  

The first is Pendergrass v. Raffensperger which challenges 3 state legislative districts in each chamber, and the single GA-13/West Atlanta congressional region under Section 2 of the VRA. These plaintiffs asked for a Preliminary Injunction in late 2021 for the 2022 elections. This request was denied even though the judge saw very favorable merits because the Supreme Court had given guidance to liberally apply Purcell to all such cases. Case was on the back-burner but post-Milligan has expedited scheduling for the fall.

The second case is Georgia State Conference of the NAACP v. Georgia. This case challenges the same districts under Section 2 but adds on a few more in the legislative chambers. They also have racial gerrymandering claims under the 14th Amendment versus the legislative and congressional maps. The sum total of their claims would likely lead to maps with equal partisan opportunity, but these additional claims meant no PI appeals even after 2022. Case currently is following the set schedule for the later fall.



There is only a little difference in terms of the congressional claims. Both make Section 2 VRA claims against the cracking in the Eastern and Southern suburbs, and provide evidence on how GA-13 presently is hyper-packed. See my previous post on the map which was included in the example map included in Pendergrass and what relief could look like.

NAACP though brings fourth an additional Racial Gerrymandering claim against the congressional map. This claim is made against GA-06, and it is seemingly the most by-the-numbers of such claims which are usually even more ambiguous that Section 2. District 6 had an excess of 650 people after the 2020 census, only a single precinct needed to be removed from the already-compact district to make it legal for the 2020s. It was electing a minority candidate of choice. Instead barely half of the population was retained, most of the districts Voters of Color were removed, and uber-white areas thrown in. Usually relief for such claims is more nebulous - see SC - but here the fact are clear enough push for a restoration of GA-06, or something close to it.

Thank you for this summary!

One question I have is does it matter GA-13 is a “black pack” if you already have achieved a proportional share of black seats (4/14)? Is the argument that GA-13 should give some black precincts to GA-04 and GA-05 to make them more reliable, or to reconfigure Atlanta by unpacking 13 and creating 4 black seats in Atlanta? I don’t see how one can argue GA needs 5 black seats under VRA or 14th amendment since 4 black seats is already proportional; usually the way VRA works is you must make as many minority districts as possible until the point of proportionality. You could squeeze another black district out of a place like MD in theory, but since the current map already has enough black seats there’s no claim against it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Thank you for this summary!

One question I have is does it matter GA-13 is a “black pack” if you already have achieved a proportional share of black seats (4/14)? Is the argument that GA-13 should give some black precincts to GA-04 and GA-05 to make them more reliable, or to reconfigure Atlanta by unpacking 13 and creating 4 black seats in Atlanta? I don’t see how one can argue GA needs 5 black seats under VRA or 14th amendment since 4 black seats is already proportional; usually the way VRA works is you must make as many minority districts as possible until the point of proportionality. You could squeeze another black district out of a place like MD in theory, but since the current map already has enough black seats there’s no claim against it.

The plaintiffs would point out that 33% is closer to 5/14 or 35.7% than 4/14 or 28.6% in a similar manner to how in Alabama 27.2% is not 2/7 28.6% but it is certainly closer to the true population distribution than 1/7 or 14.3%. Especially if/when their advanced alternative districts follow other traditional redistricting principles better than the state's plans.

The NAACP plaintiffs in particular would note that their case brings forth a coalition of damaged parties Georgia's Latino political organizations, most notably GALEO. And while this is more relevant for state legislative seats, they would point to their RPV to show how African Americans and Georgia Hispanics behave identically, there are large Latino populations in Cobb as well as Gwinnett, and both groups would be better serviced by 6/14 than the present 5/14.

Ye ig that is a fair point - true proportionality would be between 4/14 and 5/14 black seats, and which is closer depends on if you use total population, VAP, or CVAP. I think because so much of GA's black population is clustered in Atlanta, it makes it much easier to draw majority black seats without having to do a bunch of weird tentacles or anything, so at face value this case might be stronger than AL and LA in some regards.

I would disagree on the idea GA Blacks and Hispanics behave identically and should therefore be lumped together. GA Hispanics are less D than blacks, and have seen further swings rightwards than blacks in recent elections. Generally, the Black and Hispanic communities are seen as distinct. At the same time, GA is only 50% white so having 7/14 seats be majority-minority would make sense on a fair map, but 1 or 2 of those seats would likely still functionally be a white majority due to Hispanic and Asian communities being low turnout.

One big question is if this case is successful, would the legislature or the court redraw? If the legislature redraws, they likely trade precincts with the 4 existing Atlanta packs to unpack GA-13 and make GA-07 majority black, perhaps shifting the 4Atlanta packs slightly to the South to pick up more blacks but while still allowing them to crack the Northern Atlanta suburbs without ceding another D seat.

If the Court redraws under the guise of least change, my guess is they'd do 4 black seats in Atlanta and shift the current GA-07 North to be a D leaning Hispanic-Asian coalition seat of sorts, so you'd end up with a 8R-6D map. The Southern part of the current GA-07 which has a notable black population would be used for one of the majority black seats. One of GA-06 or GA-11 would be cut and become the new majority black seat. The issue is compared to AL, least change map is pretty hard since you're dealing with 4 majority black districts. Here is my attempt:

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the case is successful, would redrawing the map go directly to the court or would the legislature get a chance to fix it's issues?

If it goes to the legislature, is it basically guaranteed the GOP would basically keep the current gerrymander but make all 4 Atlanta seats majority black? Would the court uphold this map?

If the map goes to the court, would they draw a least change map, or just redraw the entire thing? How can a least change map even be done; it seems like all districts in and around greater Atlanta have to shift to make a reasonable map with 4 black Atlanta seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the case is successful, would redrawing the map go directly to the court or would the legislature get a chance to fix it's issues?

If it goes to the legislature, is it basically guaranteed the GOP would basically keep the current gerrymander but make all 4 Atlanta seats majority black? Would the court uphold this map?

If the map goes to the court, would they draw a least change map, or just redraw the entire thing? How can a least change map even be done; it seems like all districts in and around greater Atlanta have to shift to make a reasonable map with 4 black Atlanta seats.

No idea on the first two. Usually with federal litigation the legislature gets a deadline and if they fail or the court finds their new maps lacking they step in. For example, the 2003/4 Redistricting forced by GOP-led racial gerrymandering suits failed to pass specifically a State House map of the three ordered remaps. The Democrats controlled that chamber and did not want to give up power to a long-suppressed GOP. This led to the court appointing a special master who then got Nathaniel Persily (remember him from PA, this was partially where he got started) to draw a new and compliant map.

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

Yeah. I was trying to play around with a least change GA map.

Districts 1, 2, 8, and 12 obv don't need to be touched cause they outside metro Atlanta.

However, it's really hard to do a map that doesn't touch all the metro Atlanta seats. This is because in order to make 4 black seats, the current 4 "packs" (4, 5, 7, and 13) all need to shift on net south and east to balance black population and unpack 13. This leaves 3 and 10 underpopulated, so they have to grab some of 14 and 9 to make up the difference, and then 6 and 11 have to shift South.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As far as the last point, NAACP essentially targets all 10 northern districts seemingly with the understanding that a remap will affect them all. They however structure their argument more on the county and Atlanta metro region structure, though have to cite districts for legal purposes. Their complaints against 3 and 10 basically just note how the districts are used to crack majority or plurality African American counties in the Metro. The same is true for 14 only with the additional point of how the district didn't go into Cobb previously and did this time to seemingly specifically grab majority-Minority precincts. They similarly don't go have specific issue or district claims against 5 and 7. There is however the understanding that their central position within the region means changes previously done by the State to pack and crack, such as with district 6 that is cited, and by any remap to unpack would naturally require both districts to shift via ripple effect.

If there argument is that cracking majority minority counties is illegal, as is a district going specifically to collect AA precincts-

Including all the majority minority counties in the Atlanta area together is almost enough for 6 districts, so you'd probably be looking at something like this as a map

It's very easy to have 6 minority opporutnity districts in only the Atlanta area alone. By the end of the decade, you can probably get 7 in the metro. Republicans would be smart to pass an independent redistricting law before Democrats inevitably gain a trifecta. Democrats will be able to easily draw at least 9 solidly blue seats next decade if they get the pen.

Good chance control will be split by the end of the decade. The State Sen gerrymander is quite effective (assuming it is at not point overturned). The State Senate map has 23 Biden seats; 28 are needed to tie the chamber.

Assuming Dems hold all the Biden seats by the end of the decade (only liability might be SD-12 which is Biden + 16 rural black belt seat), they need to win at least 5 Trump seats.

The only seat that it seems like trends should almost certainly flip by the end of the decade is SD-48 which is only Trump + 3 and contains parts of northern Gwinett County and Southern Forsyth County. High Asian population too. Hope Michelle Au will make a return.

After that it becomes less obvious where to turn to. There are a few more seats in the Northern parts of Cobb that are like Trump + 12 and have generally been shifting left, but these seats are white and seem to have notable downballot lag. And even winning SD-48 plus these 3 wouldn't be enough to flip the chamber.

SD-01 and SD-04 are "only" Trump +13 and Trump + 14 respectively, but aren't located in metro Atlanta and hence haven't seen crazy leftwards shifts. SD-04 is mostly rural and may shift right long term.

SD-17, SD-25, and SD-45 are all like Trump + 20ish and contain at least part of their district in metro Atlanta, but Trump + 20 is pretty red

SD-46 and SD-47 are both Trump + 18 and basically crack Athens. If Athens goes nuts maybe, but I have my doubt.

You're really picking at straws for the final few seats needed for Dems to win the chamber.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good chance control will be split by the end of the decade. The State Sen gerrymander is quite effective (assuming it is at not point overturned). The State Senate map has 23 Biden seats; 28 are needed to tie the chamber.

Assuming Dems hold all the Biden seats by the end of the decade (only liability might be SD-12 which is Biden + 16 rural black belt seat), they need to win at least 5 Trump seats.

The only seat that it seems like trends should almost certainly flip by the end of the decade is SD-48 which is only Trump + 3 and contains parts of northern Gwinett County and Southern Forsyth County. High Asian population too. Hope Michelle Au will make a return.

After that it becomes less obvious where to turn to. There are a few more seats in the Northern parts of Cobb that are like Trump + 12 and have generally been shifting left, but these seats are white and seem to have notable downballot lag. And even winning SD-48 plus these 3 wouldn't be enough to flip the chamber.

SD-01 and SD-04 are "only" Trump +13 and Trump + 14 respectively, but aren't located in metro Atlanta and hence haven't seen crazy leftwards shifts. SD-04 is mostly rural and may shift right long term.

SD-17, SD-25, and SD-45 are all like Trump + 20ish and contain at least part of their district in metro Atlanta, but Trump + 20 is pretty red

SD-46 and SD-47 are both Trump + 18 and basically crack Athens. If Athens goes nuts maybe, but I have my doubt.

You're really picking at straws for the final few seats needed for Dems to win the chamber.

Some of those north Atlanta seats swung 9-10 points left from 2016 to 2020, even the Forsyth SD-27 swung 8 points left in four years.  Plus in Georgia the Senate terms are 2 years so they have to defend every seat every single cycle.   

If the Atlanta metro keeps trending the way it has, Democrats can flip the chamber by 2030.

Ye, but if you're relying on Dems to only make gains with the Atlanta seats, they need like a Trump + 17 seat. Combine that will downballot lag, and *potential* reversion or stalling of the leftwards shifts of some suburbs if the GOP gets it's act together by the end of the decade.

Also, it seems like at least right now, GA GOP is more competent than many other GOPs, and they have decent incumbents in many of these seats, so they really are the type that could outrun Pres numbers by like 10 points or smtg.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good chance control will be split by the end of the decade. The State Sen gerrymander is quite effective (assuming it is at not point overturned). The State Senate map has 23 Biden seats; 28 are needed to tie the chamber.

Assuming Dems hold all the Biden seats by the end of the decade (only liability might be SD-12 which is Biden + 16 rural black belt seat), they need to win at least 5 Trump seats.

The only seat that it seems like trends should almost certainly flip by the end of the decade is SD-48 which is only Trump + 3 and contains parts of northern Gwinett County and Southern Forsyth County. High Asian population too. Hope Michelle Au will make a return.

After that it becomes less obvious where to turn to. There are a few more seats in the Northern parts of Cobb that are like Trump + 12 and have generally been shifting left, but these seats are white and seem to have notable downballot lag. And even winning SD-48 plus these 3 wouldn't be enough to flip the chamber.

SD-01 and SD-04 are "only" Trump +13 and Trump + 14 respectively, but aren't located in metro Atlanta and hence haven't seen crazy leftwards shifts. SD-04 is mostly rural and may shift right long term.

SD-17, SD-25, and SD-45 are all like Trump + 20ish and contain at least part of their district in metro Atlanta, but Trump + 20 is pretty red

SD-46 and SD-47 are both Trump + 18 and basically crack Athens. If Athens goes nuts maybe, but I have my doubt.

You're really picking at straws for the final few seats needed for Dems to win the chamber.

Some of those north Atlanta seats swung 9-10 points left from 2016 to 2020, even the Forsyth SD-27 swung 8 points left in four years.  Plus in Georgia the Senate terms are 2 years so they have to defend every seat every single cycle.   

If the Atlanta metro keeps trending the way it has, Democrats can flip the chamber by 2030.

Ye, but if you're relying on Dems to only make gains with the Atlanta seats, they need like a Trump + 17 seat. Combine that will downballot lag, and *potential* reversion or stalling of the leftwards shifts of some suburbs if the GOP gets it's act together by the end of the decade.

Also, it seems like at least right now, GA GOP is more competent than many other GOPs, and they have decent incumbents in many of these seats, so they really are the type that could outrun Pres numbers by like 10 points or smtg.

A lot will depend on the 2026 gubernatorial primary on which direction the party goes. Does it go with Burt Jones and go the way of the AZ GOP, or does it go with Raffensperger and continue the course of pragmatic governance.

Georgia uses open primaries, so I wonder how much of the direction the GOP goes depends upon how many Dems and Indies vote for in the R primary for the more moderate/mainstream GOP candidates.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Georgia drawn to the Muon2 rules. GA-02 does not need to be black performing. The blacks already have their "quota" out of the Atlanta MSA (which is absolutely monstrous by the way).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a57ba42e-f4b5-4274-85f3-6fe8bd362f35

Actually, 5 seats is a little closer to proportional than 4. Also my understanding of Gingles (and I could be wrong about this so please correct me if so) is that proportionality doesn't enter into it, it only matters if a compact majority-minority performing district can be drawn. For these reasons I would argue that GA-02 is protected.

Nevertheless, interesting map. In Georgia specifically though I think it makes more sense to have a district that encompasses the entire City of Atlanta even if it spans Fulton and DeKalb. Also, I think counties like Morgan, Walton, and Barrow are a bit mismatched with the more core suburban counties like Gwinnett, Clayton, and Henry

There are 5 black performing CD's, plus whites are beginning to vote for blacks in the inner parts of the Atlanta MSA, so the VRA probably does not apply to the subject 5 CD's at all. Once the blacks get their quota, nothing further is protected, even if GA-02 could be drawn to get to 50% BVAP, triggering Gingles. In that sense, GA is like MD. You can draw another black performing CD, but do not have to.

Morgan, Walton and Barrow are in the Atlanta MSA, and that is all that counts. One MSA county is not more equal than others. So one focuses on what entails the smallest county cuts, subject to erosity concerns. Counties take precedence over cities when it comes to splitting. You give DeKalb and Cobb their own CD's since it leads to just tiny county micro-chops, which are favored. In fact, the map amazingly is all micro-chops except in two instances, so it is clearly the highest scoring possible map.

One follows the Muon2 rules mindlessly as it were, wherever they might lead. They generally lead to a pretty good place. One plus to them is that they give points to keeping multi county MSA's together, which tends often to lead to competitive districts, since it forces the placing of cities and their suburbs in one CD.

On your map, wouldn't 4, 5, and 13 be the only reliable functioning districts? Black voters would certainly have influence in 7 and 10, but to argue those districts will elect black voter's candidates of choice isn't exactly fair, especially since whites even in Atlanta generally have better turnout in primaries and whites are becoming more liberal in both districts.

I think currently, the VRA is only for districts that definitively will or at least should elect the candidate of that minority groups choice; opportunity seats are not recognized as contributing to the total proportionality of seats, a seat either is functional or it isn't. This is perhaps one of the flaws of VRA cause in many parts of this country, if you don't have racially competitive/diverse seats, you're not going to have competitive seats in terms of partisanship. This is most obvious in the deep South where a VRA lawsuit never leads to a competitive seat being created, even on state leg level. That's why with today's racial polarization, legislative compositions in states like LA, MS, and AL are remarkably stable across cycles; in all 3 chambers the vast majority of seats are safe; Republicans are willing to cede a few black VRA seats here or there since they can use it to still lock Dems into a permanent super-minority. Anyways, that's enough of me popping off for tonight.

Your 2nd map's GA-12 is quite an interesting district I'd never really seen/considered before.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also, to refresh the minds of everyone new to this case, this is the plaintiffs map when they applied for a Preliminary Injunction over a year ago. They basically won that hearing, but the judge said he couldn't rule positively in their favor, despite the facts, given Purcell.

What would the partisan lean of the 9th be on this map?

Looks a bit over Trump + 20 in 2020; would probably be fine for Rs this decade but def gets close

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah the GOP is sort of in a tough spot here on all levels.

For the Congressional map, they have a few options:

1. Draw 4 black Atlanta pack seats, at the expense of GA-07. This could be legally problematic, and force a special master to get involved, in which case the entire Atlanta region may become affected and you end up with a 7-7 map.

2. Draw a new black seat in western Atlanta and use the opportunity to lock in a solid 8-6 map. The problem here is which R seat does the GOP eliminate? However, if they're smart they can use it to shore up the current GA-06 and GA-11 to be completely unflippable for Dems this decade.

3. Just ignore the court, but then that forces a special master, which again is bad for them.

What makes this different than Alabama is that the only thing in question was how blue AL-02 would be; the rest of the map was never going to change much. However in GA there's not an easy way to just do a minimal change unpack of GA-13. It's also not obvious which current district would be made into the new black district.

For state legislature, the current gerrymanders don't have all that of a margin for error, especially in the State House. Any creation of new black (and hence new D-leaning districts) is a huge punch to the gerrymander.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's my attempt at a "least change" map that complies with this order. 13 is majority black, and was Biden + 18. Holds for 2016-Sen too. 11 is also 50% black and voted over 70% for Biden. 6 retains most of it's core but is bumped down to Trump + 13.

I think no matter what districts 1, 2, 8, and 12 won't change. Everything else risks significant modification.

[ProgressiveModerate]

SNIP

Thank you for this, cause nobody seemed to understand when I said that GA-07 had to remain a Democratic seat given the text of the order. They could of course try, but that would de Facto be a punt to the master, cause it would fail the strict scrutiny hearing, similar to Alabama's 'remedial' map. The plaintiffs and the Judge aren't exactly going to say Okay to a map that creates one majority minority district to elect a African American rep, from a majority minority district that currently is electing a African American rep. It's a very similar approach to the "50% AA but Trump+1" districts that pop up from certain folks: technically possible but legally impossible.

I wouldn't be surprised if its borders do shift a bit though, just cause it makes things easier for GA-04 and 05.

Also, and this is the big one, unless they GOP can get a stay from the 11th, they have every incentive to play along exactly as far as the court orders them to. Cause failing in any way and letting a master map can very easily create additional Dem seats beyond the ordered districts. As many people have shown already, a compact master map probably creates a second Congressional seat that is winnable for Dems using the north Cobb/Fulton shifts. This gets even more scary for them in the state House, which will go to 92-88 Trump and 90-90 Warnock/Walker with the 5 ordered districts, under the minimum changes necessary.

This might be a dumb question but can the GA GOP simultaneously comply with the lower court while also appealing and seeking a stay from the 11th?

[ProgressiveModerate]

SNIP

. This gets even more scary for them in the state House, which will go to 92-88 Trump and 90-90 Warnock/Walker with the 5 ordered districts, under the minimum changes necessary.

Wow, didn’t know the chamber was already that close

Ye generally in state leg chambers with a lot of seats, gerrymandering for a lopsided delegation is pretty tricky unless you're already riding on a geography advantage.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't understand why Rs just settle for a more solid 31R-25D state Senate map. In this era of polarization, 31R-25D is still a comfortable governing majority for most big partisan issues plus it's not like a supermajority is realistic for Rs at this point.

Basically add 2 new black seats in Southern Atlanta while pushing the other Atlanta seats each a bit north, in turn making seats like 32, 37, 45, and 56 safer for Rs long term.

Ofc as Oryxslayer points out though there are leadership in seats that would likely be most affected which is problematic.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1730681726936965557?s=46

Lol even though they didn't cede another Dem seat, I love how you can tell every year they get more scared of metro Atlanta.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

They could, but I think that’s a weaker argument because in order to comply with court order, most of the metro Atlanta seats have to be modified and pushed around quite a bit. It’s not like Alabama where the problem was pretty easily isolated to districts 1 and 2 while the rest of the map stayed very simillar.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

They could, but I think that’s a weaker argument because in order to comply with court order, most of the metro Atlanta seats have to be modified and pushed around quite a bit. It’s not like Alabama where the problem was pretty easily isolated to districts 1 and 2 while the rest of the map stayed very simillar.

Can they argue that the other seats have to roughly maintain their current partisanship? Or is that a partisan gerrymandering case that’s not covered at the federal level?

Yeah, that’s not a good argument, especially since honestly partisanship didn’t change all that much here in any seat.