PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Utah Neolib]

Lamb is the most electable. In polls, most Pennsylvania democratic voters consider themselves “moderate”. While that might not mean much, it has implications. More people are going to vote for Lamb in the primary than many might think. Fetterman, while I still think he’s a good candidate and would still probably win, I don’t think moderate/independent turn-out would go to Fetterman as much as it would Lamb.

[Utah Neolib]

Whomever is nominated is gonna win this seat and WI anyways

The question is can Ryan, Beasley, Val , Kunce, Gross and MAUBAUER win, I know the Rs don't believe we can win all these seats but our candidates are better than 2020 candidates HEGAR, Greenfield and Cunningham

The D's had Bollier, Bullock and Joe Kennedy were all wasted


Mandel and Renacci already lost to Sherrod Brown, if Ryan is behind he isn't behind by double digits it's a single digit race, Ryan never lost a race to an R before only D nomination for Prez let's not overdo it with how great Mandel is, but Renacci is a better candidate by far and can win Gov race

Who the heck is MAUBAUER?

I’m guessing he means Finkenauer?

[Utah Neolib]

Still supporting Fetterman

Fetterman will lose to Parnell.

I’m not the biggest fan of Fetterman but he’s not a bad enough candidate to lose to PARNELL

[Utah Neolib]

I don't want to nominate Lamb. We don't need another Sinema.

We do need another Sinema

[Utah Neolib]

I think Arkoosh is underrated here. She has a strong base in Montgomery County, and will probably do better if Lamb doesn’t run

[Utah Neolib]

ANOTHER WFP socialist who wants to defund the police.
https://mobile.twitter.com/WorkingFamilies/status/1362569864297259010
Safe R.

Look, I’m the guy who called Nina Turner a radical socialist. But Kenyatta isn’t a radical socialist. He’s just a Warren Progressive type

[Utah Neolib]

ANOTHER WFP socialist who wants to defund the police.
https://mobile.twitter.com/WorkingFamilies/status/1362569864297259010
Safe R.

Look, I’m the guy who called Nina Turner a radical socialist. But Kenyatta isn’t a radical socialist. He’s just a Warren Progressive type

He was a pretty ardent Biden supporter in the primary too

This and electability concerns are the reasons I'm supporting Fetterman. I like Kenyatta, but it's weird that he would support progressive policy while also being strongly for Biden over Bernie or Warren. It makes me think his beliefs aren't that genuine.

Progressives aren’t guranteed to be electable in states like this. Yes, I know about the success of Tammy Baldwin and Sherrod Brown, but Conor Lamb is more proven to win

[Utah Neolib]

If anything, the second most likely democratic nominee is Arkoosh

[Utah Neolib]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

This! People think Fetterman is some electoral juggernaut, when he’s just a progressive with a beard

[Utah Neolib]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

How?

[Utah Neolib]

Jeff Bartos and Josh Shapiro's kids go to the same private school in PA.

[Utah Neolib]

I support Lamb here, but Arkoosh or Street would be fine too

[Utah Neolib]

John Fetterman doesn’t have much electability without Wolf

[Utah Neolib]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

I honestly don't get the Cartwright statewide thing. Yeah, he works for his district, but in a race like this, someone like him and Lamb would be interchangeable to the regular average person.

I agree. Cartwright would be a perfect PA statewide candidate. He has views quite similar to Casey, and he’s quite popular. His district actually is somewhat similar to PA as a whole, so Cartwright would be a good statewide candidate. But Fetterman doesn’t have any real strengths,

[Utah Neolib]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/04/pennsylvania-republicans-investment-ceo-senate-519606

[Utah Neolib]

Parnell will lose, McCormick will win, Bartos will win.

[Utah Neolib]

Dr Oz vs Fetterman lol

[Utah Neolib]

Lamb is to the left of Sinema. Not every moderate is a Sinema or a Manchin, don’t believe some of the Fetterman stans fearmongering.

[Utah Neolib]

Lamb is to the left of Sinema. Not every moderate is a Sinema or a Manchin, don’t believe some of the Fetterman stans fearmongering.

Sure. Maybe Lamb isn't as bad as Sinema.

But as long as he keeps calling Fetterman a socialist I'm going to call him a Manchinist. Keep that same energy when your candidate's the one making the ridiculous comparisons.

I support Arkoosh, and I dislike Lamb calling Fetterman a socialist. I’m just pointing out that Lamb isn’t manchin.

[Utah Neolib]

Parnell’s odds absolutely tanked on predict it in the last 24 hours. Is that bc of Dr Oz? Or did more revelations about his domestic abuse come out?

https://twitter.com/lucyeperk/status/1462805996913500166?s=20

That seems pretty typical when custody is contested though. Is that viewed as so consequential?

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1462827740973998081?s=20

I think Parnell said at some point that if he lost custody of his kids he’d drop out.

[Utah Neolib]

Guess I was right

[Utah Neolib]

The first Muslim Senator being a Republican talk show host quack would be the perfect subplot for America: Season 246.

But yeah, McCormick is definitely the Republicans' best bet for the race. He could easily be a Youngkin-esque candidate and play very well against Fetterman, if not Lamb.

Dr. Oz would probably be the oddest Senate candidate ever nominated. I would probably vote for him and endorse him as a joke.

More like Ozest

[Utah Neolib]

At this rate I think Trump endorses Carla Sands if McCormick and Oz don’t jump in. She was a part of his administration and seems like a very loyal trumper.

[Utah Neolib]

Honestly, Oz is one of the most electable potential/current candidates the GOP could run in Pennsylvania, and yes I’m aware he’s a carpetbagger.

[Utah Neolib]

Seriously, I fail to see how Fetterman or Lamb are supposedly weak because of one reason or another. They will perform exactly the same. No one cares about how many tattoos Fetterman has or how establishment the vibes Lamb gives off.