UK General Discussion

[afleitch]

Sources suggest 140 Tories against, 132 for. If confirmed I'll resign my membership.

139-132 is the current (final?) figure

Seems to be. Letter already drafted. I can't quite believe I'm doing this under these circumstances on what should be a good day.

Did you actually resign membership?

Yes. After nearly 10 years. I already expected before the Commons vote, that the majority of the Scottish Parliament Conservatives would probably vote against the bill when it's raised here because they like to be contrary on such things. Never mind that fact the LGBTory Scotland is probably the largest active grouping in the party membership. I did however have hope that the Commons vote would be a little more along the line of 60-40 in favour amongst Tory MP's. Instead they allowed themselves to get bogged down in semantics and non arguments constructing a little fairy world where Catholic priests are forced marry gays (and only gays mind, not divorces, or Jews or non-practicing Catholics) and that the sky would fall in because gays f-ck differently. We ended up with a man on his second marriage defending it's 'sanctity' and a woman who herself cheated saying gays would do the same thing because essentially penises need to go into vaginas (I wonder which ones...) in order to make people stop bed hopping.

As I said on the day, this is the last test. The last barrier. I forgive past votes on age of consent and Section 28 and so on because people can change and evolve in a very short space of time and not just the Tories. But this was the last bastion and the whole thing wasn't even about sex (yet curiously those with intrests in the scatalogical tried to frame it that way) and the party failed the test.

So they can all just f-ck off.

[afleitch]

So much for Cam's referendum bounce.

It's too bad the election isn't for another two years. 

You're missing the point

Not really. Labour had leads of 20% at this time during the 1987-1992 parliament, leads of about 5% at this time between 1983 and 1987 and leads of about 15% at this time between 1979 and 1983. Tory governments have a tendency to be deeply unpopular in mid-term.

[afleitch]

Not really. Labour had leads of 20% at this time during the 1987-1992 parliament, leads of about 5% at this time between 1983 and 1987 and leads of about 15% at this time between 1979 and 1983. Tory governments have a tendency to be deeply unpopular in mid-term.

These are far from normal mid-term leads. The only time Labour had sustained double-digit leads were in 1981, which the SDP-split seen the end of and 1990, with the ousting of Thatcher for Major and the disowning of the Poll Tax combating that (and those were leads before shy Tory was accounted for).

Now, Labour's support could fracture back to the Liberals/elsewhere if they go into 2015 taking them for granted (ie offer another Blairite platform), and the Tories could narrow things with Boris Johnson, but the fact that the Liberals have completely alienated the leftists in their party suggests Labour's leads are more robust (in many ways as important as the 81 split) than previously.  

1. Never underestimate the Lib Dem incumbency factor and their ability to recover. The Lib Dem shares we see in polls right now would be the lowest since 1970; that result is unlikely. Just look at what's happening in Eastleigh; rallying the anti-Tory vote yet again.

2. We have a high UKIP vote share. There's no guarantee they will be standing in every seat or that such a vote share will be sustained at a national election in what will always be a Labour v Tory contest.

[afleitch]

Cardinal O'Brien caught being a hypocritical gobsh!te.

[afleitch]

Cardinal O’Brien has stepped down which probably adds fuel to the fire. Given that he is in effect, the titular head of the ‘Scotland for Marriage’ campaign, this is a good day for the equal marriage campaign.

[afleitch]

I can safely say now that it had been rumoured for a while. He is not the first or in any way will be the last senior Catholic in Scotland to whom these rumours apply (but that’s not for this forum) The Catholic Church in Scotland is particularly vicious on the matter of gays in comparison to the church elsewhere for these very reasons; essentially old closeted self loathing gays who exercise power in a rather insular part of the worldwide Church.

Of course it continues, perhaps with a lesser degree of venom, in the lower echelons of the Church too; my own former parish priest was romantically linked with a female parishioner and several priests including one a few parishes along are regulars on the Glasgow gay scene. It’s secretive, but at times an unashamed life that priests have and I don’t blame them. The idea that they are on the whole celibate is wishful thinking. Everyone has a sexual side to them. In the times when Scotland was not as tolerant as she is now then for homosexual men it was a refuge from society and fortunately society has changed for the better while these men have been shut away. It leads to frustration or in worse cases open resentment. The LGBT community is surprisingly over tolerant in shielding political and religious hypocrites who exercise power or preach animosity towards us.

Scotland does not on the surface appear to have the same problems that the Church in Ireland does in part because the Church has never exercised any real power or worked in coercion with the state; quite the opposite in fact. However it does not mean that abusive incidents have not occurred in areas where they have had authority. I am personally aware of one, though it did not happen to me which did affected people in my year at school. Whether that is ever raised (and time is running out) is a matter for them. Catholic are far too reticent when it comes to these things.

[afleitch]

Seems as though the Vatican essentially sacked him.

Which is fairly strong and may imply something to which we are not yet party to. He was due to resign in a few weeks and coincidentally cast his vote for Pope just before it. He did also make the news just the day before saying priests should be allowed to marry. The cynic in me thinks that may have created more problems than just the alleged man loving.

[afleitch]

Cardinal O'Brien, in is own way, sort of admits it.

[afleitch]

I am willing to bet that UKIP will have precisely zero MP's returned at the 2015 General Election.

[afleitch]

In all honesty Nick Clegg did nothing wrong other than be Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems sold themselves as the party everyone wanted them to be depending on who the audience was and whether they were contesting in the cities or the shires so people, being sheep generally, bought into the 'cuddly Labour' image the Lib Dems had cultivated (under Charles Kennedy) Clegg was always economically right of centre and in favour of certain policies that if the Tories proposed would have killed them. So it was natural he would have sought a coalition with the Tories. Labour then got angry because despite not engaging with the Lib Dems prior to the election they didn't get to form a coalition (and they would have needed other parties if they did) and voters who backed them (often with some smug self satisfaction) because they are in generally stupid creatures, realised that perhaps they weren't cuddly Labour after all and now vent their anger at them rather than deal with the fact they didn't inform themselves prior to casting their vote for them.

[afleitch]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/cardinal-was-in-physical-relationship-with-accuser.20550591#.UUr9rjhjYWg.gmail

'Cardinal Keith O'Brien had a long-standing physical relationship with one of the men whose complaints about his behaviour sparked his downfall as leader of the Catholic Church in Scotland.

The man left the priesthood in the middle of the last decade but rejoined and is living on the continent in a post the cardinal helped him secure.

The complainant is known to have been in regular telephone contact with Cardinal O'Brien until recently and was a frequent visitor to St Benets, his official residence in Edinburgh's Morningside.

It is understood the cardinal confessed to the relationship after it was recently revealed there had been several complaints to the Vatican about his sexual behaviour towards priests in the 1980s. It is thought to be part of his reference to his sexual conduct as "a priest, a bishop and a cardinal".

It also emerged the dramatic downfall of Britain's leading Catholic cleric was spurred by gay priests angry at his rhetoric and hypocrisy about same-sex marriages.'

[afleitch]

Looks better now than he did when he was PM. Probably the most personable PM of the recent modern era.

[afleitch]

I spend about 50 pounds a week some weeks.

[afleitch]

It's worth saying this now; if/when Labour get back in power, they won't go back to how things were. This is a perfect opportunity for them.

[afleitch]

Probably just an honest mithtake.

[afleitch]

No one really knows Nigel Farage which is a strength and a weakness. The public seem to like people for some strange reason who really don't deserve it like the tired and emotional old Lib Dem leader.

[afleitch]

It's only just struck me, but why is the UKIP logo still just the £ sign?

I thought the € vs. £ debate was put to bed here like 10 years ago...

It's a good anti-EU symbol.

When people see the £ sign, they don't automatically think "I hate Angela Merkel".

If it makes them think Poundland then I'm all for it.

[afleitch]

Showbusiness for ugly people, indeed.

The media creation marches on. Now The Daily Mail Party have to actually be councillors now and from what we know about their nuances as MEP's, they are likely to have some difficult and quite frankly hilarious times ahead.

[afleitch]

A full quarter of the Harrow Labour party breaking away? That's reminiscent of Glasgow.

There is a rumour that's going to happen again.

[afleitch]

The YouGov polls carried out since the local election results:

Yesterday's: Lab 39 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 9
Today's: Lab 38 Con 27 UKIP 17 LD 11

These are the highest UKIP scores in YouGov polls.  I suspect we may see a 20% for them in Opinium or Survation's next effort.

Is YouGov biased against them?

Different methodologies. Interestingly enough UKIP voters appear to be (though it's difficult to check) generally older and lower middle class. They were the 'swing voters' of elections past; Major won them in 92, Labour swept them in 1997 (they were just 647 votes shy of winning Boston and Skegness for example, an area that the UKIP performed well in last week) and 2001 and the Tories clawed them back in 2005 and 2010. Now they appear to be disaffected. As a result, they are relatively evenly spread out across the country. Indeed the Tory base (which we were told was most disaffected) was relatively untouched and they held on in areas where they always do. If the UKIP aren't spent by 2015, they may have the same fate as the Alliance did.

[afleitch]

Labour lead down to 3% with MORI. 34%-31. Seems we are in 'f-ck the lot of you' territory again.

[afleitch]

2015 looks set to give us such an odd realignment when you consider what'll happen in cities like Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool with Labour and the LibDems and what'll happen down south in the Bostons and the Thanets of the country with the Tories and UKIP (or even Labour, if they can run through the middle and get some unexpected gains).

2015 will be like every other election. I still don't think UKIP will pick up a more than about 1 seat (if Farage is still knocking around). It'll be a Tory v Labour fight yet again. The fact that Labour can't muster runaway Blairesque leads three years into a Tory government is good news. Indeed they haven't been able to reach the dizzy midterm highs of Foot and Kinnock either.

[afleitch]

Mwahaha!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2325679/Nigel-Farage-bundled-police-van-barricaded-inside-pub-going-promote-Scottish-election-candidate.html

[afleitch]

So Nigel has now called the protestors ‘fascist scum’ and said "If this is the face of Scottish nationalism, it's a pretty ugly nation." Not exactly a way to further endear himself and UKIP to the Scottish people.

[afleitch]

Mwahaha!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2325679/Nigel-Farage-bundled-police-van-barricaded-inside-pub-going-promote-Scottish-election-candidate.html

God bless Scotland.

I thought it was England who had the hooligans, not the Scots.  Or is that only in football since there isn't anything to get excited about in Socttish football.

Scottish football is probably worse when it comes to fans, mainly due to the healthy combination of sectarianism and alcohol.

http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11787/8682649/Police-investigate-after-three-fans-arrested-at-Rangers-v-Celtic-youth-cup-final
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/dundee/the-atmosphere-was-frightening-celtic-apologise-for-fans-behaviour-at-dens-1.62792

Scottish football is noticed for it's lack of violence especially at the international level. We also don't have a soccer casuals problems. I lived near Celtic Park for 3 years on the route that fans took to and from the stadium and never saw anything violent during Old Firm games. The incident at the youth cup final, the first time in a year since Celtic and Rangers faced each other in any form and at the Dens was very much the exception. The best way of stopping little sh-ts from ruining games are the fans themselves. There's also a ban on alcohol at stadiums and a street drinking ban has been in force for over a decade.