States splitting apart

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm surprised that people are favoring OH-TN so much.  While it is on my list of near term possibles, it isn't among my top 3.  4th likeliest at best, and more like 5th likeliest.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

CT-MI and NY-WI will definitely split the next time the GOP breaks 300 EV.

OH-TN requires a close election or Fred as the GOP candidate to split in 2008, and I'm not at all convinced that 2008 will be close, even if my current prediction is a close election with OH and TN splitting.  However, my prediction assumes a third party candidate getting 5% of the PV.  In a D-R only contest, I'd have Tennessee as a Democrat tossup right now.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With the shape I foresee the economy and the Iraq being in, Tennessee will be a tossup in 2008, altho one could easily argue whether it will be a Dem or GOP tossup.  The candidates picked will also matter and whether there is a strong third party effort and who leads it.


Now if I foresaw a close race in the Electoral College, then yes Tennessee would be a true blue Republican state, but right now, it's not looking like a close race come November 2008.