Alcon
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,866
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« on: June 12, 2007, 02:04:44 AM » |
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« edited: June 12, 2007, 02:07:33 AM by Alcon »
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I definitely see OH/TN as the likeliest. The competitive ones are:
1. OH-TN I think the GOP is going to have to work to win Ohio in 2008
2. MT-CO I'd say about a 35-40% chance
3. NM-IA In another close election, especially with McCain, who knows?
4. WI-NY Obviously, almost happened twice
5. FL-AZ A solid victory might take away FL without AR
6. DE-PA PA is polling GOP, but I still think it's probably going Dem
7. CT-MI Unlikely, but possible
8. MN-DC Not very likely
9. AR-LA I know people say Clinton is likely to do well in AR, but still unlikely for me (I am being generous with this ranking)
10. OK-VA OK is going nowhere, but VA could flip in a strong victory
11. OR-WA The most unlikely on this list, but still sorta competitive
(The last three I think are almost equally likely, though.)
The only one on this list that I will already call as definitely, definitely not happening in 2008 is ID-UT (I'm confident enough that I won't have to eat my words on that).
This all, of course, is excepting a third-party entering.
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