Were there any red flags that indicated the race would be closer than polling suggested?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Aside from pre-COVID personal anecdotes from friends, coworkers, and Reddit- for me it was

1) WA state referendum 88's narrow defeat in 2019, even though Yes got the lion's share of endorsements. Not related to the GE but it got me thinking about non-response bias
2) Biden's surprise comeback on Super Tuesday as the least "progressive" and the most "populist" candidate
3) Trump doing absurdly well in Univision's post-debate polls
4) this 2020 graphic of Asian American voter identification patterns from 2012 to 2020 (source).


There were also these Feb 2020 Atlas threads:

• Is the Iowa turnout a bad sign for democrats chances?
• Why is Sanders under performing?
• Why did gop turnout balloon in nh?

[Kamala's side hoe]

2) Biden's surprise comeback on Super Tuesday as the least "progressive" and the most "populist" candidate

Most POPULIST???
what about BERNIE

Re: "Why is Sanders underperforming?" (Feb 2020)

Because he's simultaneously become more tied to the post-Obama/Trump-era Democratic Party and pulled a lot of cargo cult bourgeois socialists into or around his campaign. Meanwhile, other candidates have adopted some of his policy proposals and made a joke out of them.

Also, the fact that he's approaching 80 (he literally had a heart attack!) is not going to go away as a concern.

Different and arguably less appealing coalition than in 2016 (see also PR's post) + less support from Independents + no longer really perceived as a "fresh face", certainly less so than in 2016 + underwhelming base turnout + still perceived as an "agent of change" but less so than four years ago + less support from anti-establishment and rural voters + running against stronger opponents than Clinton ("not Hillary" isn’t really an option this time), etc.

My theory is that voters on the left wing of the party are already supporting Sanders (or maybe Warren), meaning that most of the late deciders are more centrist, conservative, or non-ideological, and a lot of these voters are turned off by Sanders's ideology. Exit polls showed that about half of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters thought that Sanders is too far left.