Why did gop turnout balloon in nh?

[Matty]

It wasn’t a competitive primary.

Yet trump got like twice as many votes as bush in 04, obama 12

[ElectionsGuy]

It wasn’t a competitive primary.

Yet trump got like twice as many votes as bush in 04, obama 12

High turnout across the board, R's and D's will both be energized in the general.

[Podgy the Bear]

Both the D and R bases will come out big time.

[Matty]

Also, why does nh rarely if ever give incumbent presidents more than 85% of the vote in primary elections?

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Because Trump actually campaigned in N.H. and the media covered the primary challengers.

That's it.

[Neocon Dem]

Because Trump actually campaigned in N.H. and the media covered the primary challengers.

This, although I still believe NH is trending R.

[SnowLabrador]

Because Trump's very skilled at getting his base to vote even when they don't need to.

[Gass3268]

MAGA Death Cult

[RaphaelDLG]

Were there other races on the ballot?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

NH is slowly becoming more Republican

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

NH is slowly becoming more Republican

There is nothing to suggest that this is true.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because the right always votes. Always. It's why the only way Democrats win is to overwhelm them in turn. We can't just sit back and hope for them to just suddenly stop.

[Annatar]

NH is slowly becoming more Republican

There is nothing to suggest that this is true.

The state has trended Republican in the last 3 elections.

[Adam Griffin]

The Trump campaign and the RNC (which now has a superior data operation to the DNC, in large part because the DNC and Democratic establishment hate Sanders) is using its tech advantage to mobilize GOP voters so that there is no doubt about these individuals' affiliations when it comes time to mobilize them in November. You can't see who people voted for by and large, but you can see which party's primaries they voted in: if voters are pulling a GOP presidential primary ballot this year, then there's no doubt who they're going to vote for in November. It makes GE GOTV supremely easy.

Whatever you think of them, they are basically doing Obama '08-levels of runaround on the Democratic Party when it comes to voter organizing and mobilization.

[wbrocks67]

Why is everyone ignoring that Trump was literally campaigning in NH the night before?

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

NH is slowly becoming more Republican

There is nothing to suggest that this is true.

The state has trended Republican in the last 3 elections.

And yet the Dems control both senate seats, both chambers of the state legislature, won the 2018 GCB by 10 points, and control both House seats. If it was trending R, Ayotte wouldn't have lost. Enough said.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NH is slowly becoming more Republican

There is nothing to suggest that this is true.

The state has trended Republican in the last 3 elections.

And yet the Dems control both senate seats, both chambers of the state legislature, won the 2018 GCB by 10 points, and control both House seats. If it was trending R, Ayotte wouldn't have lost. Enough said.

Tbf, 2016 was a VERY close race.  I don't think that NH is going to go to Trump in 2020, but it's a state in which the Democrats cannot afford to rest.  

[Can't Bear]

I've already posted in another thread, but it still is useful. Dave Wasserman (Cook Political Report)

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227716314409709569

[wbrocks67]

Why is everyone ignoring that Trump was literally campaigning in NH the night before?

[StateBoiler]

The Trump campaign and the RNC (which now has a superior data operation to the DNC, in large part because the DNC and Democratic establishment hate Sanders) is using its tech advantage to mobilize GOP voters so that there is no doubt about these individuals' affiliations when it comes time to mobilize them in November. You can't see who people voted for by and large, but you can see which party's primaries they voted in: if voters are pulling a GOP presidential primary ballot this year, then there's no doubt who they're going to vote for in November. It makes GE GOTV supremely easy.

Whatever you think of them, they are basically doing Obama '08-levels of runaround on the Democratic Party when it comes to voter organizing and mobilization.

I was in a county Republican Party meeting a few years ago and from what was said by a state party operative about collected election data for voters the Democrats are apparently light years behind the Republicans (at least Indiana Democrats were).

[StateBoiler]

Why is everyone ignoring that Trump was literally campaigning in NH the night before?

I will say I think it's beneficial to Trump in November to do the primary state circus even if he has no opposition. Primaries when one party has an incumbent, the other party and the president even tend to get ignored. He's keeping himself in the public eye from a campaign perspective.

If he hadn't, Weld probably would've qualified for delegates, albeit we know the delegate race won't matter.

[Adam Griffin]

The Trump campaign and the RNC (which now has a superior data operation to the DNC, in large part because the DNC and Democratic establishment hate Sanders) is using its tech advantage to mobilize GOP voters so that there is no doubt about these individuals' affiliations when it comes time to mobilize them in November. You can't see who people voted for by and large, but you can see which party's primaries they voted in: if voters are pulling a GOP presidential primary ballot this year, then there's no doubt who they're going to vote for in November. It makes GE GOTV supremely easy.

Whatever you think of them, they are basically doing Obama '08-levels of runaround on the Democratic Party when it comes to voter organizing and mobilization.

I was in a county Republican Party meeting a few years ago and from what was said by a state party operative about collected election data for voters the Democrats are apparently light years behind the Republicans (at least Indiana Democrats were).

Democrats have basically been riding off of Obama's data from '08 and '12 into the present day. At the state level, some campaigns actually supply their state parties with their voter data post-election (most don't, though), but the core of voter file data Democrats have access to is either generic consumer-level data, voter registration records that are mostly 10+ years out of date, or Obama-era records. God knows the Clinton campaign's data was both a) horribly wrong and b) not shared with state parties.  

Minus the individual campaigns' data-sets, the Democratic Party is basically utilizing decade-old data (with some email lists) and some questionable scoring models heading into 2020. Oh, and of course we hire nepotistic consultants to design bespoke apps and the like for us that do nothing.

[Nyvin]

The Trump campaign and the RNC (which now has a superior data operation to the DNC, in large part because the DNC and Democratic establishment hate Sanders) is using its tech advantage to mobilize GOP voters so that there is no doubt about these individuals' affiliations when it comes time to mobilize them in November. You can't see who people voted for by and large, but you can see which party's primaries they voted in: if voters are pulling a GOP presidential primary ballot this year, then there's no doubt who they're going to vote for in November. It makes GE GOTV supremely easy.

Whatever you think of them, they are basically doing Obama '08-levels of runaround on the Democratic Party when it comes to voter organizing and mobilization.

I was in a county Republican Party meeting a few years ago and from what was said by a state party operative about collected election data for voters the Democrats are apparently light years behind the Republicans (at least Indiana Democrats were).

Democrats have basically been riding off of Obama's data from '08 and '12 into the present day. At the state level, some campaigns actually supply their state parties with their voter data post-election (most don't, though), but the core of voter file data Democrats have access to is either generic consumer-level data, voter registration records that are mostly 10+ years out of date, or Obama-era records. God knows the Clinton campaign's data was both a) horribly wrong and b) not shared with state parties.  

Minus the individual campaigns' data-sets, the Democratic Party is basically utilizing decade-old data (with some email lists) and some questionable scoring models heading into 2020. Oh, and of course we hire nepotistic consultants to design bespoke apps and the like for us that do nothing.

This might've been true for 2014 and 2016, but certainly not post-2016.   The data operations of both parties are pretty up to date.