Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Honestly this pretty much the only election in the world I could possibly think of leaving a blank-vote. Actual human right abusing facist heir vs tankie communist, my sympathy is with the people of Peru.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Honestly this pretty much the only election in the world I could possibly think of leaving a blank-vote. Actual human right abusing facist heir vs tankie communist, my sympathy is with the people of Peru.

Pretty absurd to compare an indigenous teachers union leader in rural Peru to anime Stalinists on twitter imo.

True, Twitter Stalinists with anime pfps don't represent a tangible danger to an entire country.

That's not a bad point and maybe we should focus the discussion on tangible dangers.

Assuming both candidates are awful, who is more dangerous? The indigenous teachers union, or the daughter of Alberto Fujimori? In other words, assuming both candidates have authoritarian designs, which one has more chances to succeed? Who would count with the support of the army and the factual powers of Perú,  Fujimori or Castillo?

If a was Peruvian, I would try to have answers for these questions before going to the polling station. My heart obviously wants me to stay at home or waste my ballot, but my head could advice me to opt for the less dangerous

I mean it's debatable, Fujimoro winning would ensure that almost everyone was hyper villigant about any steps back to aristocracy. Castillo has been far more open about his authoritarianism and is likley to face a bit less resistance due to unfamiliarity, look at the post above claiming that his status as an indengenious union leader makes him harmless.

Obviously that doesn't justify a vote for Fujimoro but I don't think backing another authorain will leed to good things.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If you want to criticize Castillo, go ahead. But please be accurate. "Tankie communist" doesn't contribute much to the conversation. (I'd point out that like a third self-described "tankies" are trans whereas Castillo is rather noxiously against "gender ideology.") I also think that an analysis that deems him a "puppet" is quite weak. PL has 0 organization outside of Cerron's base. Castillo's organization and manpower clearly comes from SUTE (organization of local bases of SUTEP, the natl teacher's union), more than the Party. Castillo is no dope, you dont become president of the grassroots of a teachers union without some smarts. And let's be honest, the *Spanish * language media barely covered him before April. Can any of us really say we've done our research and have a complete picture here?

Edit: Do you seriously think the Peruvian media and state apparatus wouldn't be intensely skeptical of a leftist Indian president with no support in Lima?

Tankies isn't an internet phenomena, their internet presence is merely an annoying outcrop of the existing ideology. His party is an unreformed marxist-lenninst party that advocatess for the aboishment of an electoral democracy and suppresion of critics.
IRL tankies are often very socialy conservative sharing with many on the right the idea that social progressivism is an elite plot to divide and suppress working classes.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Only the Peruvian Left and unspooked Indigenous people would vote for Castillo, and that’s not enough to win this election. We’re seeing Keiko Fujimori consolidate the Urban non-indigenous, non-Left vote and the conservative vote in rural areas, i.e. the majority of the population.

Fujimoro has her own baggage, I wouldn't be suprised if around 10% of people leave a blank vote or turnout hits record lows. I still think Castillo is favoured, Fujimors shawdow looms long.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Well, well, well.

https://twitter.com/DanielDiMartino/status/1395219722715684865
https://elcomercio.pe/politica/guillermo-bermejo-si-tomamos-el-poder-no-lo-vamos-a-dejar-nndc-noticia/

If there’s one thing that can be learned from the Peruvian experience, is that it is an ungovernable country.

What Castillo wants is irrelevant to the facts on the ground that he needs to rely on allies in the legislature and on the streets in order to govern. The Humanist party, Broad Front, and Veronika Mendoza’s list among others won’t just up and capitulate all power to the Free Peru party. The purple and liberal lists would abandon him.

There’s also the fact that his opponent is most likely going to use the state to crack down on opposition and Peruvian democracy with much less institutional opposition from the security force, so the compromise here is clear.
While this is a nothingburger and won’t move things, it still doesn’t change the fact that Keiko is definitely going to win one way or another. The consolidation of the anti-indigenous, anti-socialist sections to Peruvian society are all going to go for Keiko anyway and it’s clear from polling and #trendz across Spanish-speaking America wide that there isn’t enough support to make the Left win aside from Bolivia. Pedro Castillo is going to poll in the mid 40s and his movement will lose considerable support in the probable next election in a few months, that is, if Peru doesn’t become a dictatorship. What is certain is that most of the Peruvian Left—JPP, PL, and possibly both FA and DD—will attempt to work together to prevent any vote splitting.

I would have preferred this year to have both Peru and Chile be led by the Left, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that there needs to be more work to be done in creating the necessary infrastructure to take power for the next set of elections.

I'm sorry but the only thing that I heard in my head as I read this post was the quote by German Chanellor Von Papen when he decided to ally with him "We will squeez him in goverrment until until the pips squeak".

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

God a neck-in-neck race where both canidates fill me with dread. This is a weird feeling.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Casttilo might pull it off.
https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1401830168969240581

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Peru is Latin American Florida. Change my mind.

Castillo is, for all his innumerable faults, an incomparably more HIGH ENERGY figure than anyone Florida Dems could provide.

He ran a terrible campagin, looking at his polling numbers at the start of the runoff campagin which showed him with huge leads to this incredibly narrow finish it's clear he bled support. He wasn't able to ditch his image of being an Authoriatrain Chavista which would have been much easier given that he's not a very defined figure.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

PL party Congress is going on rn. Hopefully some time soon after it’s finished we should have the cabinet ready (although Cevallos in health is all but confirmed, Najar looks strong for PM, and Francke still seems the most likely for finance).

What are Cevallos, Najar, and Francke like?

Najar is Cerrón’s professed candidate for PM, PL guy since the party’s founding and formerly of UPP (but not the etnocacerista version, more the Humala pre-hoja de ruta version). He spent a long time trying to get out of paying child support to the daughter he had with a 14-year-old.

WTF ? Shouldn't he be breaking big rocks into smaller rocks in a prison somwehre instead of running for PM ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The new health minister, Cerrón ally and former Junín regional health minister Hernán Condori, is already in hot water for promoting ivermectin and some sort of “clustered water” as Covid-19 cures. It’d be XD if it weren’t so DX.

What is up with all these random far-right ideas in this so-called leftist goverment ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Anyway it seems like Pedro Castillo is now deeply unpopular given recent polling. Why has this happend ?

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1523779312193015808

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is this a record for most incompetently executed coup ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I support the protests in Peru. It's clear that Castillo was anticipating a coup with his self-coup and that removing Castillo from office on its own was a coup itself (even if i don't like Castillo myself).

   

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I do know this is news for you, but Congress was also an elected body.