2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[MT Treasurer]

AZ being more competitive than MT is of course utter nonsense even when you account for the "possibility of a three-way race" given that (a) Sinema has been polling in the low teens/high single digits, (b) there is no sign that Sinema is drawing considerably more support from Democrats than Republicans, (c) Sinema's support isn’t particularly likely to grow unless one of the two party estalblishments/state parties unites behind her instead of supporting their own party's nominee (not happening), (d) the GOP "bench" in AZ is in no way "stronger" than in MT.

So Cook is just memeing about open seats and Titanium Tester... again. However, I guess at least Menendez isn’t more vulnerable than Tester this time around and Manchin isn’t Lean D like Doug Jones was in 2019, so we’ve made progress!

[MT Treasurer]

When Manchin gets blown out of the water by 20+ points (if he’s narcissistic enough to go through with this) and Cruz ends up having a close call, they’ll just say that the trajectory of those races changed dramatically and that they weren’t actually wrong with their ratings in late 2023/early 2024 (when it’s already obvious to anyone with a brain that TX is far more likely to go D than WV).

This happens every single time and every single time they get away with it.