2013 Elections in Germany

[ZuWo]

The trend looks favorable for the black-yellow coalition in Lower Saxony. I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to get a narrow majority again. In fact, I think this is the most likely outcome at this point.

[ZuWo]

Both ARD and ZDF are currently predicting a 1-seat majority for the black-yellow coalition but take this with a huge grain of salt ... This will be a nailbiter.

[ZuWo]

New Forsa poll (23.01.2013), Federal election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

CDU slightly short of absolute majority (42-45).
Red-Green far away from majority (37-50).

Looking at Lower Saxony example we can be quite sure about FDP overcoming the threshold with some loan from CDU voters.

Except that CDU supporters know now that a tactical vote for the FDP may actually hurt their own party rather than doing any good...

In fact, the CDU didn't lose the Lower Saxony elections because of too many "loan votes" for the FDP. On the contrary, it's possible to claim that the party lost because of too few. If roughly 2000 additional CDU supporters had voted tactically for the FDP, the black-yellow coalition would have a majority of seats now.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2013/landtagswahl-niedersachsen-2013.html#mehrheit

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[ZuWo]

Protip for all undecideds: Your decision won't matter anyway. Merkel and black-yellow will win handily. Only 2017 matters.

Are you really so sure? I agree that it's pretty safe to assume that Merkel will remain Chancellor but a grand coalition seems much more likely at this point.

[ZuWo]

An alternative explanation for the recent polls (maybe I'm too optimistic) could be that the German pollsters have learnt their lesson and factor in all the effects of the holiday season in Northern Germany.

[ZuWo]

CDU and SPD have released their official television ads, which will be aired on ARD and ZDF during the next weeks. As expected, the CDU ad solely focuses on Merkel, her popularity and a couple of feel-good platitudes while the Social Democrats desperately try to come across as the party for social justice. Not surprisingly, Steinbrück doesn't play a major role in their ad.

Both ads can be watched here.

[ZuWo]

http://www2.fr-online.de/bundestags-wahlhelfer/index.php

Here's a federal test; not sure I like it but fwiw...

FDP 45%
CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 24%
Linke 17%
Grüne 10%

[ZuWo]

AfD appears to benefit from the recent discussion about the eventual need for another support package for Greece.

There is a strange "undercurrent" on the German-speaking web right now, to the effect that the AfD is actually much stronger and has a good chance to enter the Bundestag.

Of course, this could easily be a distorted picture, and some AfD activists spamming news-sites can do much.

Then again, there is a rationale behind this prediction: In the last elections, the CDU has consistently received less votes than predicted. Usually, these votes went straight to the FDP. The AfD, however, might be a new alternative for conservative/liberal/right-wing voters who don't like Merkel.

Any thoughts?

There are Germans who don't like Merkel?

[ZuWo]

According to ARD polling, Steinbrück "wins" the debate by 49-44%.

[ZuWo]

ZDF says Merkel has won by 40-33%.

[ZuWo]

What a bizarre story!

German newspapers report that a man tried to blackmail Steinbrück for having illegally employed a Philippine cleaning lady 14 years ago. According to Spiegel, Steinbrück and his wife deny these allegations and have already informed the police.

[ZuWo]

Steinbruck literally gives journalists the finger. Joke candidate.

And I thought Steinbrück and his party accused Merkel of being superficial in her election campaign.

[ZuWo]

Bavaria continues to be horrible.

84% of the people in Bavaria say the economic situation is good. What a horrible state indeed!

[ZuWo]

Here's hoping that FDP and AFD stay below 5%...doubt it though.

If this happens Merkel has a real chance of winning an absolute majority of seats. If I were you I would hope the AfD gets in.

[ZuWo]

Karl Lauterbach, SPD MP and member of Steinbrück's "competence team", has floated the idea of a minority government led by Merkel. Is it conceivable that his party actually has the audacity to refuse to enter a coalition with Merkel and stay in the opposition?

[ZuWo]

I hope the election result will trigger a debate about the 5% threshold. In my view it is problematic that nearly 16% of the voters are not represented in the new Bundestag.

[ZuWo]

I hope the election result will trigger a debate about the 5% threshold. In my view it is problematic that nearly 16% of the voters are not represented in the new Bundestag.

I get the impression that you would not be bleating if the two parties under the threshold were the Greens and the Left.

I don't care if it's a right-wing or left-wing party which is the victim of the 5% threshold. I'm not German so it doesn't directly affect me whether Germany is governed by a left-wing or a right-wing coalition anyway. I just think that a threshold of 5% is too high and prevents too many parties from entering the Bundestag.