2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

The Green strategy is to be seen as the serious intra-system opposition party. It's a sound strategy given what a joke the federal SPD has become and will pay rich dividends. But it does leave an opening on hte left.

I don't mind the "serious intra-system opposition" strategy, to the opposite! I also don't mind an "opening to the left", especially in a situation where "left" is widely associated with promoting pensioners' interests. But a "serious intra-system opposition" needs to address the Euro crisis and Germany's role within. Green chairman Trittin did so last year, with emphatic advocacy for the Euro, and criticism on the therapy the Merkel government proposed to Greece. And now? A silly "Human before bank" poster is the best the Greens have to say.. 

Moreover, I appreciated the Green's enhanced focus on poverty alleviation, in particular for those groups that are really facing poverty, namely single parents and their children. This also includes introducing minimum wages for 420 Euro jobs, in order to put an end to the current malpractice of splitting one regular job into two half-time mini jobs at 5,50 Euro/hour, which keeps single mothers working but still being poor, and not having access to social security. Unfortunately, the Greens don't communicate such issues and strategies. Instead "my motha becomes boss (and you?)".Great!

The Greens' traditional civil rights and direct democracy focus should never have allowed the Pirates to emerge in first place. And when the Pirates emerged, the Greens should have reacted adequately, by reinforcing the civil rights / direct democracy part of their traditional agenda, and reviewing their party culture for elements that might repeal young, educated, male urban voters. Look at the personnel: A number of party seniors (Trittin, Ströbele, Kretschmann) over 60, and lots of women that will turn 60 soon (Künast, Roth, Löhmann). And when there is someone, who could make inroads with the Pirates demography, such as party board member Malte Spitz (29 yr old internet activist), he ends up a hopeless 16th on the Green federal election candidate list for NRW (in 2009, the Greens gained 14 seats from that state).

[ERvND]

The Greens' traditional civil rights and direct democracy focus should never have allowed the Pirates to emerge in first place.

That's the point, but the problem goes even deeper: The SPD should never have allowed the Greens to emerge in the first place.

The major parties used to be "big-tent-parties". They managed to assemble very different kinds of socioeconomic groups and political issues, thereby balancing contradictory opinions within themselves. With the establishment of the Greens in the 1980s (the first successful founding of a party since 1949), this ability - or the need for it - seems to have gone on the left side of the political spectrum.

With the Pirates, we are already experiencing the third major split of the left, accompanied by all of its negative consequences: The inability to collaborate (SPD - Linke; Pirates - everyone else, as long as they are deemed too inexperienced), the loss of votes for parties that fail to reach the 5% threshold (Linke in the West, Pirates nation-wide), the inability to constitute the strongest party (effectively giving the CDU a lock on the chancellorship for the decades to come) and so on.

With all of this, we should remember that the establishment of new parties doesn't go by natural law. If there is a new issue on which you don't agree with the existing parties, you don't have to found a new party. You could also try to become involved in the traditional parties, changing their positions from within, as it's been the case for decades. If people on the left keep forgetting this, we'll soon have the CDU on the right and ten small parties on the left, effectively terminating every chance for a leftist government.

[minionofmidas]

But a "serious intra-system opposition" needs to address the Euro crisis and Germany's role within.

Au contraire. Seriously doing that would put you beyond the media- and big-business-sanctioned pale. "Intra-system" means exactly that - not seriously questioning what's swelling Germans' swiss bank accounts atm. Safe to govern with, but won't be doing so this cycle. Which, really, is exactly what a lot of people feel safest with and want to vote for.

[Franknburger]

The Greens' traditional civil rights and direct democracy focus should never have allowed the Pirates to emerge in first place.

That's the point, but the problem goes even deeper: The SPD should never have allowed the Greens to emerge in the first place.

You could as well say that the FDP should never have allowed the Greens to emerge, as the Greens have also taken over a number of traditional FDP functions and topics.

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.

The Greens reflected several fundamental changes - transformation from an industrial to a service- and knowledge-based economy, increase in academics, female professional emancipation (commencing, still on-going), internationalisation/globalisation. Most importantly, they have been the vehicle for the political aspirations of the baby-boomers, the first post-WW II generation, and the single largest age group still to date.

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When the Greens were founded (and I am one of their founding members), the CDU was still a revanchist cold war party representing displaced persons from former German territories in the East, while the SPD focused on their three "big Cs" (cars, coal, construction). I doubt that the political and cultural changes that we have seen in Germany after 1980 would have taken place so quickly without the Greens' pressure from outside (changes would probably just have started around 2000, with the baby-boomers 'march through the institutions' having brought them into relevant positions).

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You should not overlook the fact that the Greens were able to win voters that have traditionally been reluctant to vote for SPD (Catholics, second-generation displaced Germans, etc.). Baden-Würtemberg is a point in case.

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Aside from legitimately questioning the baby-boomers' cultural dominance, I hardly see an underlying rationale for the emergence of the Pirates The age groups they are representing are also not sizeable enough to effect the kind of cultural change the baby-boomers did (though that may change, if my generation's complacency continues for another decade or so).

As to the Linke, they had a legitimate cause, namely representing East German interests, and the losers from unification. The SPD at least in the 1990s also had a legitimate cause for not wanting to integrate those 'unification losers', which had in many cases been tied to the SED regime. However, the SPD should never have allowed the Linke to gain traction in the West. To me, it is pretty clear who is to blame for this - I have experienced Olaf Scholz' management style during my brief JuSo membership (he was my district head, and a prime reason for me to join the Greens), and what transpired about how Olaf Scholz, as SPD secretary general, managed party discussion on Hartz IV reforms had me sympathize with every SPD official leaving towards the WASG (later becoming part of the Linke).

Bottom line: While I see sufficient demographic, political, and also tactical (voter outreach) reasons for SPD and Greens being separate parties, I agree that we are currently having to many parties on the left. However, instead of putting the blame on those who are setting up yet another party, the established parties (SPD and Greens) should question themselves as to why changing them from within is not regarded a viable option.

[minionofmidas]

"Reign in Merkel - for a strong Vice Chancellor". Barely even satire.

[Franknburger]

Two new polls, today, time for another "poll of polls". Covered are FORSA (14.8.), infratest dimap /15.8.), FG Wahlen (16.8.), EMNID (18.8.), INSA/TNS (20.8.) and GMS (20.8.). In brackets my previous "poll of polls" from two weeks ago (I missed to do one for last week):

CDU:        40.3 (40.3)
SPD:        24.8 (24.8 )
Grüne:     12.8 (13.5)
Linke:        8.0  (7.5)
FDP:          5.3  (5.0)
Pirates       3.2  (2.8 )
AfD            2.0 (2.3)
Others       3.6  (3.8 )

The Green's steady decline (they polled around 15% this Spring) starts to get alarming. However, before drawing conclusion, let's remember that summer holidays in one of their strongholds, namely Baden-Würtemberg, are still on-going.
The Linke uptick is also coming as a bit of surprise considering their recent polling in the East (see below). The East-West breakdown provided by infratest dimap suggests gains in the West on the expense of the Greens. However two states in which spring polling suggested heavy Linke losses, namely NRW and Baden-Würtemberg, are still on holidays.

We also have new state-level polls from infratest dimap for the remaining East German states. Summer holidays ended there this weekend, this should be half-way realistic (2009 federal election results in brackets):

Saxony:
CDU          48 (35.6)
SPD          17 (14.6)
Linke         13 (24.5)
Grüne         9 ( 6.7)
FDP            3 (13.3)
Others       10 ( 5.3)  including Pirates 3

Saxony-Anhalt:
CDU          43 (30.1)
SPD          20 (16.9)
Linke         21 (32.4)
Grüne         6 ( 5.1)
FDP            3 (10.3)
Others        7 ( 5.2)

Thuringia:
CDU          44 (31.2)
SPD          20 (17.6)
Linke        19 (28.9)
Grüne         7 ( 6.0)
FDP            2 ( 9.8 )
Others        8 ( 6.7)    including AfD 3

Huge losses for Linke (-10-11) and FDP (-7-10). CDU gains strongly (+12-13) not only from FDP, but also from Linke. SPD up 2.5-3 per cent, Grüne up 1-2%. The high share of others, and the fact that most of it is not on AfD and Pirates, could point towards gains for NPD, DVU and REPs.

[Yeahsayyeah]

According to wahlrecht.de the survey was made from 9th to 15th August, which means weaks 4 and 5 of the six week summer vacancies in Thuringia and Saxony. And it is in the so called "Sommerloch" period, where nothing political happens. I haven't even seen much of election posters recently.

[Franknburger]

According to wahlrecht.de the survey was made from 9th to 15th August, which means weaks 4 and 5 of the six week summer vacancies in Thuringia and Saxony. And it is in the so called "Sommerloch" period, where nothing political happens. I haven't even seen much of election posters recently.

Thanks for the info - I overlooked that one. I guess that means first of all a bit of Linke overstatement (their demographic base in the East is mostly out of the age where school holidays matter).

[Tender Branson]

Look at the following epic charts:

[minionofmidas]

I like that, in the Germany comparison thing (from a different poll I suppose?) they explicitly state the third shown option is unprompted "neither".

[Tender Branson]

Has there been any poll so far that shows how the SPD would do if Hannelore Kraft were the Chancellor candidate ?

SPD would still lose of course, but by how much ?

[minionofmidas]

Interesting new EMNID polls: They have done a Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll for a local newspaper. As the third-smallest state, it typically does not get much weight in national polling, so this poll may help to gain some insight into trends in the East.  Moreover, it is Angela Merkel's 'home state'. This is the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll since the 2009 federal election:

CDU              36 (+3)
FDP                2  (-8)
CDU-FDP       38 (-5)

SPD              24 (+7.5)
Greens           6 (+0.5)
SPD-Greens  30 (+8)

Linke            23 (-6)
NPD               3 (--)
Pirates           2 (--)
AfD                2 (+2)
others            2 (+1)

Quite a swing from Linke to SPD. CDU collects back FDP "loan votes" (that may be re-loaned again
in autumn), but loses to both SPD and AfD.

If these results are representative for the East as a whole (and a Brandenburg poll from May with similar trends suggests they may well be), the Linke, but also CDU may face unpleasant surprises in the East in the upcoming federal election.

This poll also included a question on people's intention at the state level.

SPD 32
CDU 28
Left 20
Greens 8
NPD 5
FDP 2
other 5

[minionofmidas]

Has there been any poll so far that shows how the SPD would do if Hannelore Kraft were the Chancellor candidate ?

No, I don't think anyone's ever done something like that in Germany. It's a bit silly to do really. There have been such "direct matchup" polls (which of course are also essentially silly, even with the actual candidates, but still serve a sort of purpose): At the time she'd just won the NRW state elections and was in the media a lot, she was beating Merkel 43-34 (although that was a yougov poll; they've grown up a lot, of course, and by now I take them serious in the countries they know, but Germany isn't one), losing 29-54 to Merkel this may when we were already in a Merkel vs Steinbrück pre-campaign / media narrative (which affects things - a 13 point swing compared to the actual candidate is probably very good for such a poll. Merkel was at 58-20 vs Steinbrück in that. Oh yeah, on the question of who'd be the better SPD candidate, 53% said Kraft, 33% Steinbrück... this really needs a by-party breakdown to be intelligible but the only number I found was 52% for Kraft among people intending to vote SPD at current.)

[palandio]

[...]
The Linke uptick is also coming as a bit of surprise considering their recent polling in the East (see below). The East-West breakdown provided by infratest dimap suggests gains in the West on the expense of the Greens. However two states in which spring polling suggested heavy Linke losses, namely NRW and Baden-Würtemberg, are still on holidays.
[...]

Some hypothetical numbers, assuming that the East makes up 17.2% of the total vote, down a little bit from 2009. How can the Linke arrive at 8% as federal polls suggest?

With 4.0% in the West and 27.1% in the East they would get 8.0% overall.
Or with 4.5% in the West and 24.7% in the East.
Or with 5.0% in the West and 22.3% in the East.
Or with 5.5% in the West and 20.0% in the East.
Or with 6.0% in the West and 17.6% in the East.

For comparisons: In 2009 they had 8.3% in the West and 28.5% in the East.
So you see the federal polling and some of the regional polling do not fit together perfectly but it is not to big of a stretch either.

[Franknburger]

Some hypothetical numbers, assuming that the East makes up 17.2% of the total vote, down a little bit from 2009. How can the Linke arrive at 8% as federal polls suggest?

With 4.0% in the West and 27.1% in the East they would get 8.0% overall.
Or with 4.5% in the West and 24.7% in the East.
Or with 5.0% in the West and 22.3% in the East.
Or with 5.5% in the West and 20.0% in the East.
Or with 6.0% in the West and 17.6% in the East.

For comparisons: In 2009 they had 8.3% in the West and 28.5% in the East.
So you see the federal polling and some of the regional polling do not fit together perfectly but it is not to big of a stretch either.

Infratest dimap (15.8.) has an East-West breakdown- Their figures for Linke are

5% in the West and 18% in the East = 8% overall

This obviously does not fit arithmetically  (result at 17.2% vote share East is 7.1%). However, if you take 5.4% West and 18.4% East, you arrive at 7.64% overall, which rounds to 8%.

18.4% in the East (10% loss vs. 2009) is credible, maybe even a bit low, considering the latest surveys have them only losing 5-6% in Berlin and MV, though 11.5% in Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt.

5.4% in the West would mean close to 4% loss there.  Here is their loss according to the most recent rounds of state-level polling:

Baden-Würtemberg        -5.2
Bavaria                         -3.5
Bremen                         -8.6  (2009 federal vs. 2011 state election)
Hamburg                       -4.8  (2009 federal vs. 2011 state election)
Hesse                            -2.5
Lower Saxony                -5.5  (2009 federal vs. 2013 state election)
NRW                             -5.4
Rheinland-Pfalz              -6.4  (2009 federal vs. 2011 state election)
Saarland                      -13.2
Schleswig-Holstein         -5.4  (2009 federal vs. 2013 local election)

Unless there has been a substantial uptick over the recent months,  these figures rather point at some 5-5.5% loss in the West than at just 4%. However, I just realised there is a new Hesse poll out today as well from infratest dimap (dates not specified, so it is unclear whether it was done before or after the Hesse school holidays finished last weekend). And in this poll, the Linke only lose 2.5%, so they may in fact be gaining ground in the West.

Anyway, here the full Hesse data for the federal election (2009 in brackets):
CDU:        41 (32.2)
SPD:        27 (25.6)
Grüne:     12 (12.0)
Linke:        6   (8.5)
FDP:          6 (16.6)
AfD            3   (--)
Others        5  (5.1)

If they have done a poll for the federal election, I am pretty sure they also polled the state election to be held on the same date. Results will probably come out in the next days and should be interesting.

In the meantime, let's just note that the last state election poll (FORSA, 17.07.) had the CDU at 38%,  Greens at 17% and Linke at 4% (other parties in line with the infratest dimap results above). This would essentially indicate a 3% swing from Greens to CDU, and a 2% swing from Greens to Linke. Yes-different election, different pollster, holiday effect. Still another sign that the Greens may just be f**king it up!

[ERvND]

The Greens reflected several fundamental changes - transformation from an industrial to a service- and knowledge-based economy, increase in academics, female professional emancipation (commencing, still on-going), internationalisation/globalisation. Most importantly, they have been the vehicle for the political aspirations of the baby-boomers, the first post-WW II generation, and the single largest age group still to date.

Without any doubt, there are several legitimate reasons for the Greens to be a separate party. Basically (at least I'd argue), they are a Conservative movement, while Social Democrats are a Progressive one.

Yet, and in spite of this sharp distinction, the definition of both parties as "leftist" seems to hold. All efforts to to redefine the Greens as a Centrist/"middle class" party and to bring Greens and CDU closer together - as in black-green coalitions - have more or less failed, so far. All black-green flirtations aside, as elections come closer, the two "blocks" (red-green on the one, black-yellow on the other side) will usually consolidate, culminating in loan-vote recommendations and sometimes even joint campaign events.

Now, if SPD and Greens see each other as "natural partners" and usually form no coalitions with center-right parties anyway, why don't they just merge? From this point of view, the ever-repeating coalition talks are just redundant; political differences could as well be resolved within a bigger, united party.

The social structure of the SPD membership, by the way, would no longer be a hindrance to such a merger. The days of "coal, cars and construction" are long gone, and with it the cultural and economic differences between both parties' base.

[Franknburger]

Now, if SPD and Greens see each other as "natural partners" and usually form no coalitions with center-right parties anyway, why don't they just merge? From this point of view, the ever-repeating coalition talks are just redundant; political differences could as well be resolved within a bigger, united party.

The social structure of the SPD membership, by the way, would no longer be a hindrance to such a merger. The days of "coal, cars and construction" are long gone, and with it the cultural and economic differences between both parties' base.

Of course, the SPD has become much "greener", owed not at last to leaders such as Gabriel and Platzeck, and the fact that baby boomers are also taking over more and more functions inside the SPD.

Nevertheless, there are still political and demographical differences (which are of course linked to each other). Transport policy (Stuttgart 21, A 21 extension here in Schleswig-Holstein, also restructuring/ privatisation approaches for "Deutsche Bahn") is among them, and it is much easier for the SPD to gain a car mechanic's vote than for the Greens. When it comes to renewable energy or eco-farming, on the other hand, advantage is with the Greens. That also includes quite a number of bankers/ fund managers that will be reluctant to ever vote SPD, but may more easily identify with the Greens.
In other words: With well-orchestrated and targeted campaigns, SPD and Greens may gain more votes in combination than when running as a unified party. That's exactly my problem with the current Green campaign- they are acting too social-democrat, instead of going after the voters that are out of reach for the SPD, but may consider voting green.

Asides, I see the SPD changing, but I also still remember who killed the last federal red-green coalition (plus a few more on state level). There is the issue of identity- no social democrat would ever agree to give up the party name (and it would also be a shame to have a party with that tradition disappear). However, you also cannot expect a Green (and even less so a "Bündnis 90" member) to give up these names and all what they stand for. "Social democrat-Green Alliance for Germany", with a sunflower logo that is red inside and green outside - come on!

Last but not least - while SPD and Greens appear to be natural allies most of the time, there are certain situations where it makes sense having them on opposite sides. "Black-green does not work" - it worked quite well in Hamburg as long as Ole von Beust was in charge of the CDU, and it was high time to get the Hamburg SPD out of power so they could re-generate. Infight was just unbelievable inside the Hamburg SPD in the late 1990s (I know quite a few people that now hold senior positions inside the state party and/or city administration). On city level, neither SPD nor CDU are immune to corruption, and political hygiene might call for a black-green government (or a grand coalition,  if some Greens should get "involved" the wrong way). Finally, the Linke's strength has been making grand coalitions quite common in Eastern Germany. While I accept the need for a stable government there, I prefer to have a broader opposition than just Linke, NPD, and an anabiotic FDP.  

[Middle-aged Europe]

Now, if SPD and Greens see each other as "natural partners" and usually form no coalitions with center-right parties anyway, why don't they just merge? From this point of view, the ever-repeating coalition talks are just redundant; political differences could as well be resolved within a bigger, united party.

The German Green Party would never merge with a coal lobby-sponsored, top-down structured law-and-order party like the SPD.

Besides, why tie yourself to a sinking ship? It would practically be suicide.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I voted today.

Woot!

[ERvND]

There is the issue of identity- no social democrat would ever agree to give up the party name (and it would also be a shame to have a party with that tradition disappear). However, you also cannot expect a Green (and even less so a "Bündnis 90" member) to give up these names and all what they stand for. "Social democrat-Green Alliance for Germany", with a sunflower logo that is red inside and green outside - come on!

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Yes, and that's exactly the problem with the left. "I'd never", "I'd rather", "We will never" is what we get to hear. That's the result of a dogmatic tradition. If they could, every leftist would maintain his or her own party, masochistically enjoying the resulting right-wing dominance.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes, and that's exactly the problem with the left. "I'd never", "I'd rather", "We will never" is what we get to hear. That's the result of a dogmatic tradition. If they could, every leftist would maintain his or her own party, masochistically enjoying the resulting right-wing dominance.

Think of what you will, but Heinz Buschkowsky and Dieter Wiefelspütz being in the same political party with Claudia Roth and Hans-Christian Ströbele is not even remorely close to what I would define as "realistic".

[ERvND]

Think of what you will, but Heinz Buschkowsky and Dieter Wiefelspütz being in the same political party with Claudia Roth and Hans-Christian Ströbele is not even remorely close to what I would define as "realistic".

Yes, but only in Germany. In the USA, for example, such constellations are not at all unrealistic. If Colin Powell can be a member of the same party as Sarah Palin, why should comparable things be impossible in Germany?

I'll tell you why: While Americans are pragmatic, Germans - and, even more so, German leftists - are dogmatic. In their eyes, a fringe group that insists on its standpoint is preferable to an actually relevant party that has to compromise. That's why the left in this country has always been outplayed by the right, and things will get even worse.

[Famous Mortimer]

Is there something going on with the Greens and pedos?

[palandio]

In America they don't have proportional representation and "Fraktionsdisziplin" though. These are natural incentives against big-tent parties.

Yes there is something going on with the Greens and pedos.
The first thing that came up some time ago was some "fiction" written in the 70s/80s by "Dany le Rouge" Cohn-Bendit about his time as a kindergardener in an anti-authoritarian kindergarden at the University of Frankfurt (kids petting his ...).
Then there were some newspaper articles about an inner-green pressure group called SchwuP in the 80 that wanted to abolish the whole penal law for sexual offenses. They managed to achieve some (regional) party conference decisions that demanded legalization of "non-violent" pedophilia.
After these newpaper articles the Greens commission some political scientist to investigate these things. And parts of his results are now finding their way into the media.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Think of what you will, but Heinz Buschkowsky and Dieter Wiefelspütz being in the same political party with Claudia Roth and Hans-Christian Ströbele is not even remorely close to what I would define as "realistic".

Yes, but only in Germany. In the USA, for example, such constellations are not at all unrealistic. If Colin Powell can be a member of the same party as Sarah Palin, why should comparable things be impossible in Germany?

I'll tell you why: While Americans are pragmatic, Germans - and, even more so, German leftists - are dogmatic. In their eyes, a fringe group that insists on its standpoint is preferable to an actually relevant party that has to compromise. That's why the left in this country has always been outplayed by the right, and things will get even worse.

Proportional representation.

America never intentionally chose to have a two-party system, it's merely the result of its political and electoral system. Just as Germany's party system is the result of our political and electoral system.

So what you're actually saying is that you want to see FPTP introduced in Germany. That's a bit of a different debate though.