Obama over/under 50.73% nationwide PV

[pbrower2a]

I did some quick math and, assuming Obama's popular vote increased by 2% across the board, Montana and Missouri would flip while Indiana and North Dakota would move to the 50% column.  The question is, against what Republican would Obama get that result?

Corrected for a likely  typo:

I did some quick math and, assuming Obama's popular vote increased by 2% across the board, Montana and Missouri would flip while Indiana and North Dakota Carolina would move to the 50% column.  The question is, against what Republican would Obama get that result?

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It's unlikely that the President would get an across-the-board 2% nationwide in Utah and Vermont just the same. The gains would be bigger near the margin (Indiana, North Carolina, Georgia, and Missouri) and in states that President Obama lost.   

[pbrower2a]

Over. Daniels & Huntsman are really the only ones I think can make it competitive, with perhaps Romney. I think Pawlenty could have been a decent candidate for the GOP had he not gone the religious nutter route.   The others are across between unelectable and completely unelectable and the margins would likely surpass 08 in those cases.

Jon Huntsman is too intellectual for the Tea Party types. Mitch Daniels has kept a low profile for a long time, and his star fades if the sorts of political demonstrations that appeared in Michigan and Ohio appear in Indiana.

I think that you are right about Pawlenty, but for a different reason: having gone the Protestant fundamentalist route, he is a lapsed Catholic, and that will offend huge numbers of Catholics.  Ex-Catholics might do OK in places with few Catholics, but he effectively throws away any state with  a large Catholic population except perhaps Texas or Louisiana.