BRTD's county map predictions

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Alcon]

I still object to Asotin R>60, but you're doing a pretty good job, especially considering the rigor of the task.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I still object to Asotin R>60, but you're doing a pretty good job, especially considering the rigor of the task.

Hmmm, >60 is another error. Needs to be dropped a notch.

[Alcon]

I still object to Asotin R>60, but you're doing a pretty good job, especially considering the rigor of the task.

Hmmm, >60 is another error. Needs to be dropped a notch.

Awesome.  That's the only one I think is totally unrealistic at a 10-point margin, although I think this looks more like +14-15.

My prediction at that margin has several other counties flipping.  In a few instances (e.g., Chelan) I think +10 would be enough to send McCain under 60% pretty easy, but whatevs.  It's a solid map considering you're doing so many.  Asotin and Clark were really only "typos."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Ronnie]

What's the margin of Obama's win here in MO?

In any case, I object to Obama carrying Mississippi county.  Bush carried it by 10 points.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I agreed with BRTD for the most part till he got to Missouri. Having a map that looks like Gore's is not likely, since Obama will not perform as well as Gore outside of St. Louis.

[Alcon]

Be careful about underestimating how good of a candidate Bush was in some places...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something in particular about this is going to piss StatesRights off a lot...

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Something in particular about this is going to piss StatesRights off a lot...

The whole west coast is flipping to Obama? How much do you have him winning Florida by? That map is pretty ridiculous.

[Ronnie]

I think we have to disagree about Florida, BRTD.  I can't explain it, but it is tougher for me to believe Florida will go for Obama than for McCain.  Unless Obama racks up a national popular vote margin larger than 3 or 4% on election day, I think Florida will go for Mac.

If Florida actually goes for Obama, McCain will literally be hurting himself for choosing Sarah Palin.

[JohnCA246]

I think MO is unrealistic.  I think Obama will pretty much run the gauntlet with urban and some suburban areas, and get mauled just about everywhere else. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

[JohnCA246]

on second thought that MO is realistic, but I still don't see him carrying Platte and Clinton counties.  Well see though, I take back my previous post.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

FL will be about 4-5% more GOP than the national, so if he wins by that, he probably wins Florida by 1-2% at best. I can't see the entire western coast of FL trending that hard left in that case.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

FL will be about 4-5% more GOP than the national, so if he wins by that, he probably wins Florida by 1-2% at best. I can't see the entire western coast of FL trending that hard left in that case.

The bolded part is where the logic goes wrong as that hasn't happened since 1988.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Still not much South, though I can kind of understand why. Southern states have tons of counties.

[Ronnie]

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

FL will be about 4-5% more GOP than the national, so if he wins by that, he probably wins Florida by 1-2% at best. I can't see the entire western coast of FL trending that hard left in that case.

The bolded part is where the logic goes wrong as that hasn't happened since 1988.

You mean 1992.  

I think his point is that if the trend continues in FL, it will be about 4 points more GOP than the national average.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

     Still not much South, though I can kind of understand why. Southern states have tons of counties.

Tons of counties + boring = a toxic combo.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

FL will be about 4-5% more GOP than the national, so if he wins by that, he probably wins Florida by 1-2% at best. I can't see the entire western coast of FL trending that hard left in that case.

The bolded part is where the logic goes wrong as that hasn't happened since 1988.

You mean 1992.  

GHWB got about 40% in Florida and 37% nationwide.

I think his point is that if the trend continues in FL, it will be about 4 points more GOP than the national average.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84653.0

[Ronnie]

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

FL will be about 4-5% more GOP than the national, so if he wins by that, he probably wins Florida by 1-2% at best. I can't see the entire western coast of FL trending that hard left in that case.

The bolded part is where the logic goes wrong as that hasn't happened since 1988.

You mean 1992.  

GHWB got about 40% in Florida and 37% nationwide.

I think his point is that if the trend continues in FL, it will be about 4 points more GOP than the national average.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84653.0

Ya, but he won FL by 2 when he lost by 6 nationally.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[??????????]

Something in particular about this is going to piss StatesRights off a lot...

Um, yeah right. Why the hell would Hillsborough, Sarasota,Manatee, Pasco, Hernando and Monroe county suddenly swing left for Obama? Citrus and Levy Obama? LOL.  Inverness for Obama? I think not. Sorry BRTD, that's a pipe dream.

Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte didn't even go for Clinton once.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I based the FL map off 2000 so I might've overestimated a bit and'll probably revamp it. But I have a theory about FL based off the current polling which if true will give some surprising results (trying to be vague Sam Spade-style.)

[Verily]

Very interesting. Gore carried Monmouth and there was a huge 9/11 effect there--Middletown famously had a large number of losses that day.

Monmouth is changing, though. It's become even more wealthy exurban, and the downscale areas have shrunk. Obama could still win if he massively increases his margin in Middletown and the rest of the northern coast, but, since there's no serious campaign in NJ, I doubt that happens.

Personally, I doubt Sussex ends up more Republican than Warren this year. But I suppose it could. Also, on the kind of result NJ is looking like, Union would be D>60.