What share of the Jewish vote will Trump get?

[Intell]

Around 24%.

[Absolution9]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

Is that because you so strongly support Putin and all the help he has been willing to give Trump because he has constantly been saying for the past 18 months that Putin was his best friend until he wasn't anymore, because he was apparently fed up with the media constantly attacking him for having said that Putin was his best friend?

Huh?  When did I say that I personally support Trump or Putin?  All of my relatives hate Putin and are supporting Trump despite and not because of his stance on Putin.  For many of them its his biggest negative.  

The ones that are supporting him that don't usually vote Rep (maybe 15-20%) are doing it because they view him as more secular and not hung up on things like abortion/other aspects of social conservatism.

They also love to point out that all three of his adult kids are married to Jews.

[eric82oslo]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

Is that because you so strongly support Putin and all the help he has been willing to give Trump because he has constantly been saying for the past 18 months that Putin was his best friend until he wasn't anymore, because he was apparently fed up with the media constantly attacking him for having said that Putin was his best friend?

Huh?  When did I say that I personally support Trump or Putin?  All of my relatives hate Putin and are supporting Trump despite and not because of his stance on Putin.  For many of them its his biggest negative.  

The ones that are supporting him that don't usually vote Rep (maybe 15-20%) are doing it because they view him as more secular and not hung up on things like abortion/other aspects of social conservatism.

They also love to point out that all three of his adult kids are married to Jews.

He's not hung up about abortion? Excuse me? He just said in the last presidential debate that he would be the most anti-abortion president in the history of the universe, not only in the history of the United States. In fact he attacked Hillary again and again about how inhumane it was of her to so shamelessly be supporting the practise of the extremely conservative Supreme Court of the United States for almost 50 years now. How can you turn such a conservative statement of Hillary Clinton and such an absolutely vile and ridiculous statement of Trump, attacking her for not only supporting basic woman rights, but supporting a now quite ancient practise with the United States in general and in the justice system specifically?

[Absolution9]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

Is that because you so strongly support Putin and all the help he has been willing to give Trump because he has constantly been saying for the past 18 months that Putin was his best friend until he wasn't anymore, because he was apparently fed up with the media constantly attacking him for having said that Putin was his best friend?

Huh?  When did I say that I personally support Trump or Putin?  All of my relatives hate Putin and are supporting Trump despite and not because of his stance on Putin.  For many of them its his biggest negative.  

The ones that are supporting him that don't usually vote Rep (maybe 15-20%) are doing it because they view him as more secular and not hung up on things like abortion/other aspects of social conservatism.

They also love to point out that all three of his adult kids are married to Jews.

He's not hung up about abortion? Excuse me? He just said in the last presidential debate that he would be the most anti-abortion president in the history of the universe, not only in the history of the United States. In fact he attacked Hillary again and again about how inhumane it was of her to so shamelessly be supporting the practise of the extremely conservative Supreme Court of the United States for almost 50 years now. How can you turn such a conservative statement of Hillary Clinton and such an absolutely vile and ridiculous statement of Trump, attacking her for not only supporting basic woman rights, but supporting a now quite ancient practise with the United States in general and in the justice system specifically?

They view Trump as pandering to the social cons on the issue but not actually caring about it much himself.  Contrast his defence of pro life views to Mike Pence's.  Trump almost immediately, as I remember, switched to talking about partial birth abortion which is more objectionable to most and gave examples (not necessarily representative of the practice) about how horrible it is.  He was clearly uncomfortable with and not well versed in pro-life talking points throughout the campaign.  Pence, on the other hand, literally spent 15 minutes passionately regurgitating anti-abortion talking points during his debate.  Big difference between a true evangelical social con and Trump, it shines through.

[eric82oslo]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

Is that because you so strongly support Putin and all the help he has been willing to give Trump because he has constantly been saying for the past 18 months that Putin was his best friend until he wasn't anymore, because he was apparently fed up with the media constantly attacking him for having said that Putin was his best friend?

Huh?  When did I say that I personally support Trump or Putin?  All of my relatives hate Putin and are supporting Trump despite and not because of his stance on Putin.  For many of them its his biggest negative.  

The ones that are supporting him that don't usually vote Rep (maybe 15-20%) are doing it because they view him as more secular and not hung up on things like abortion/other aspects of social conservatism.

They also love to point out that all three of his adult kids are married to Jews.

He's not hung up about abortion? Excuse me? He just said in the last presidential debate that he would be the most anti-abortion president in the history of the universe, not only in the history of the United States. In fact he attacked Hillary again and again about how inhumane it was of her to so shamelessly be supporting the practise of the extremely conservative Supreme Court of the United States for almost 50 years now. How can you turn such a conservative statement of Hillary Clinton and such an absolutely vile and ridiculous statement of Trump, attacking her for not only supporting basic woman rights, but supporting a now quite ancient practise with the United States in general and in the justice system specifically?

They view Trump as pandering to the social cons on the issue but not actually caring about it much himself.  Contrast his defence of pro life views to Mike Pence's.  Trump almost immediately, as I remember, switched to talking about partial birth abortion which is more objectionable to most and gave examples (not necessarily representative of the practice) about how horrible it is.  He was clearly uncomfortable with and not well versed in pro-life talking points throughout the campaign.  Pence, on the other hand, literally spent 15 minutes passionately regurgitating anti-abortion talking points during his debate.  Big difference between a true evangelical social con and Trump, it shines through.

My mum was totally shocked by the crude words coming from Trump's mouth. I think she was truely appalled by how he was visualizing abortion doctors literally wripping the babies out of the mother's womb in the last few seconds/minutes/hours or days before birth. The words Trump used was so beyond normal decency that some measures should be taken towards him. Maybe place him in some asylum of some kind? His mind is so f*ed up that at this point it's very hard to assess whether he can fully recover at any point even if he fully complies with the expertice in every step of the way.

[Suburbia]

Very low. Jews distrust religious bigotry of any kind, as bigotry against any religion can easily be turned against Jews.

...It is remarkable that when the Jews really controlled Hollywood around 1940 they made a seemingly-unlikely stock hero: the Catholic priest. But Catholics were not yet completely accepted in American life, and there was much garbage out about Catholicism.

Jews might have also wanted to isolate Father Coughlin.  

He's not for Palestine, Hamas, etc. I don't understand why some Jews despise him. I can see Riverdale, Bronx making Bronx a little bit competitive.

They care little about which party sides more with Israel. They care about the treatment for the poor, women's rights, respect for humanity etc.

Jewish people are highly secular and align closer to agnostic/atheistic people than religious types.

It's probably a reason why some of them aren't respected in places outside of Manhattan, Upper West Side, etc. They side too much with Planned Parenthood and Palestine.

[King of Kensington]

One would think the alt right support of Trump and anti-Semitic dog whistles would take Trump down to 10% Jewish support.  But it doesn't seem to be moving Orthodox or FSU Jews much.

Still, he's going to be well below Romney, and if Kasich or Rubio were the candidate the Jewish vote for the GOP would likely have been at least 30%.

[Classic Conservative]

One would think the alt right support of Trump and anti-Semitic dog whistles would take Trump down to 10% Jewish support.  But it doesn't seem to be moving Orthodox or FSU Jews much.

Still, he's going to be well below Romney, and if Kasich or Rubio were the candidate the Jewish vote for the GOP would likely have been at least 30%.

I actually think that Cruz and Rubio would have done the best with the Jewish community.

[DavidB.]

Many people posting here with no clue (the exceptions are also obvious). It doesn't make sense to see Jews as a homogeneous voting bloc. There are some quite different types of Jewish voters. It has been mentioned already, but 1990s Jewish FSU immigrants are often very strong Trump backers, especially people from non-Ashkenazi groups. And there are different types of non-immigrant, Ashkenazi voters too. That said, it is true that Trump is a very bad fit for most Jewish demographics.

I expect Trump to get something around McCain's 22%, probably slightly less.

I actually think that Cruz and Rubio would have done the best with the Jewish community.

No, Cruz would do terrible too (though not as bad as Trump). Even conservative Jews are generally not conservative in the same way as evangelicals are. Cruz represents a lot of things most Jews just can't relate to -- in certain ways much more so than Trump.

[King of Kensington]

24% (Bush 2004).

[DavidB.]

So this prediction of mine did not turn out to be completely, wholly, utterly, terribly wrong, but only a little bit wrong? Wow.

[King of Kensington]

He didn't do as bad as some expected given that he seemed like a particularly odious Republican candidate for Jewish voters. 

[Ronnie]

So this prediction of mine did not turn out to be completely, wholly, utterly, terribly wrong, but only a little bit wrong? Wow.

What share did he get in the end?

[King of Kensington]

24%.

[LLR]

WTF? I'm so embarrassed about my people... Shameful. They wouldn't vote for FF Dole, but they'll vote for HP Trump? They have no reason to have economic anxiety - Hell, he campaigned on f[inks]ing anti-Semitic dogwhistles!

[King of Kensington]

1. The Orthodox and Russian share is bigger than 20 years ago

2. The Republicans being the more "pro-Israel" party perception in certain quarters didn't really come into being until after 9/11 (Carter was more of an aberration).   

[Fusionmunster]

WTF? I'm so embarrassed about my people... Shameful. They wouldn't vote for FF Dole, but they'll vote for HP Trump? They have no reason to have economic anxiety - Hell, he campaigned on f[inks]ing anti-Semitic dogwhistles!

As the number of reformed and liberal Jews in our community stagnate due to intermarriage, the number of conservative and Hasidic Jews continues to rise due to their high birth rate. Its not surprising our community has grown more republican in recent years.  

[Fusionmunster]

1. The Orthodox and Russian share is bigger than 20 years ago

2. The Republicans being the more "pro-Israel" party perception in certain quarters didn't really come into being until after 9/11 (Carter was more of an aberration).   

You'll find very few Jews actually care about Israel policy since both parties are so supportive.

[DavidB.]

WTF? I'm so embarrassed about my people... Shameful. They wouldn't vote for FF Dole, but they'll vote for HP Trump? They have no reason to have economic anxiety - Hell, he campaigned on f[inks]ing anti-Semitic dogwhistles!

It's not as if we voted for Trump? Trump only got 24% compared to Romney's 30%. No group swung away from the GOP as much as Jews.