🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Astatine]

Is the CDU receiving more support just a rally around the flag event or is there something more behind it?

The Governor of Bavaria, Markus Söder, once with relatively mediocre approval rating, reached a 94 % approval in a poll for Bavaria today, elevating the CSU to 49 % (overall majority) and breaking a record for gubernatorial approval in Bavaria. Federal and state governments are doing a good job in handling the crisis and I could see this boosting some politicians permanently (Söder, also Tobias Hans who is Governor of Saarland).

[Astatine]

Not that still incumbent CDU chair AKK has been much of a presence in the media or public consciousness the last couple of months - which either may have been intentional on her part due to her lame duck status or unintentional because she just kind of faded away during the pandemic. In most people's minds Angela Merkel probably has been the de facto CDU leader again since March.

I am actually wondering whether AKK will run for a Bundestag seat next year (she doesn't have a parliamentary seat as of now). Most candidates who run for Parliament have announced their intentions a while ago, while she remained silent so far. Her district would be Saarbrücken (my district), which is currently represented by a low-profile SPD politician who just barely won in 2017. I suppose that AKK would win if she ran for that seat, she is still relatively popular (especially in the suburbs), and the incumbent's majority is extremely slim.
Her performance as Defense Minister was not the worst, in comparison to some predecessors at least, and several former leaders (Schäuble, Barzel) remained in Bundestag or ascended to cabinet positions even after the end of their leadership.

[Astatine]

Exactly what has Die Linke done recently in these few months? It seems as if they are stagnating heavily in recent memory.

Not much, their leaders Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger are set to be replaced after eight years by Hesse state legislator Janine Wissler ("radical" wing) and Thuringia state party chairwoman Susanne Henning-Wellsow ("pragmatic" wing). Due to Covid, the leadership election was postponed, and die Linke's essential question (joining a government or not?) has still not been properly answered. Their leading candidates are yet to be chosen, it is widely believed that Kipping will run, which would point more towards a R2G coalition.

Die Linke is quite out of the spotlight right now, stagnating in polls (~7-8 %) and with an unclear position on how to tackle the Covid crisis. General position is against privatization of healthcare, but apart from that, I have heard hardly anything from them in recent times.

[Astatine]

It fell under the radar, but besides CDU, CSU, SPD, AfD, FDP, Left and Greens we might see another party entering the Bundestag in September. The South Schleswig Voter Federation (SSW), the minority party of Danes and Frisians which runs in Schleswig-Holstein local and state election, decided to participate in the federal elections for the first time since 1961.

They are excepted from the 5 percent threshold and just need to cling over the "natural threshold" required to get Bundestag seats, which equivales about 45,000-50,000 votes. They have a chance to do so, in the last state elections they received 49,000 votes.

SSW is nominally centrist but leans more to the left as the party governed from 2012 until 2017 in a "Danish traffic light" coalition in S-H together with SPD and Greens.

Btw, in theory, two other parties could benefit from this rule: The "Lusatian Alliance" (representing Sorbians) and the "The Frisians" party, representing Frisians specifically. On federal level, they would be excepted from the threshold too, but as neither party had statewide electoral success (LA is excepted from the threshold in Brandenburg only but never ran in state elections, The Frisians never got over 0.x % - Both parties have some local representation though), it seems extremely unlikely they'll run.

[Astatine]

What exactly does that mean? Is it ¹/₅₉₈ (the minimum number of Bundestag seats), or just list seats, or total number of seats after overhangs, or how does it work?

As estimation this works, yes, but the Bundestag seats get allocated according to Sainte-Lague's method (0.5, 1.5 etc. as divisor instead of 1, 2 etc.), so the "natural threshold" is a bit lower. 46 million people voted in the last elections, multiplied with ¹/₅₉₈ that would be about 80'000 votes, half of it would be 40'000 (I found the number of 45'000-50'000 in an online news article). But I am really not sure about overhang and compensatory seats, as the election system was reformed recently (so that CDU/CSU can nicely benefit), but a lawsuit against it is pending.
But I am really not 100 % sure, the German electoral system itself is not too complicated in total, but the details of when a seat gets compensated in which state etc. are too much for me to.

Why do you think they chose to go this route now? Would 1 seat in the Bundestag give them that much an opportunity to advocate for Danish and Frisian issues?

Well, I can just guess, but maybe because the SSW has stabilized in recent years (for many years they were stuck between 1 and 2 % in S-H, now they've been stable at 3-4.5 % for almost 20 years or so), therefore it is just mathematically more likely that the expenses for a campaign could be worth it. It would give them some nationwide attention probably (currently the SSW has close to none), so maybe running should set a sign for minority representation?
The one MP doesn't have much too say unless he or she joins a parliamentary group (unlikely, but most probable match would be SPD or Greens?). Independents usually don't get committee assignments as far as I know, but maybe the other parties could compromise to add the SSW MP to a Committee that is somewhat close to Frisian/Danish issues.  Not sure which one that could be tbh.

[Astatine]

Wagenknecht was not even able to convince the delegates of her own party of her crazy anti-migrant policies. She may be an entertaining talk show guest but she's a terribly incompetent politician - or do I need to mention the sad joke that was her failed Aufstehen movement? The party leadership could kick her out and nothing would happen.

And perhaps they should. After all, the LINKE has nothing to win from listening to Wagenknecht who is clearly part of a dying breed. Instead, they need to realize that there is no need for a Left that pretends to still live in the 1970s so that it can ignore the struggle of LGBTQs, POCs, and Muslims.

Maybe she could Team Hodentöter... Todenhöfer, their views don't seem to be too far apart from each other?

[Astatine]

CDU/CSU with a big mask scandal.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-lawmaker-resigns-over-face-mask-scandal/a-56798497

At least both Susanne Eisenmann and Christian Baldauf now have someone to blame for leading their respective state party into the worst electoral defeat in the party's history. That's clearly the #Arminmentum.

Wouldn't be too surprised if the FDP scored a double digit result in both state elections and the Free Voters enter the Landtag of RLP.

[Astatine]

Are you sure about that?

Yes, as the last federal election was almost four years ago and things have changed since. It's true the AfD gained most voters from the CDU (besides voters of other parties and non-voters) in the last federal elections, but that was when their vote share increased from 4.7 to 12.6 % (while the CDU/CSU alliance fell back to pre 2013 levels and the Greens were stable at 8.x %). But if you take a look at the elections that happened since the "Green hype", you'll see that CDU is losing way more voters to the Greens than to the AfD:


(EU elections 2019 compared to federal elections 2017)


(The AfD didn't even run in the election before and still the Greens gained more voters from the CSU than the AfD!)


It's true though that in Eastern states, the CDU is still losing way more to the AfD than to the Greens, but it should be noted that all Eastern states combined have the same population as NRW, so this "counter-trend" is completely neutralized in elections on federal level:

[Astatine]

The SPD's substantial new campaign posters...

https://twitter.com/LorenzMaroldt/status/1369498761723052033

So they advertise with ✊ and 👌... Gives me flashbacks to past campaigns:

[Astatine]

Umfrage Forsa, the first one in which some data was collected after the 2 state elections

CDU/CSU 29%
Grüne 21%
SPD 16%
AfD 10%
Linke 8%
FDP 8%
Sonstige 8%

The sum green-red-red is 45%. The sum of the other parties that will have seats is 47%. For the first time, the sum green-red-red is close to majority, the difference is inside the margin of error.

(parliamentary majorities for coalitions, see May 2019-March 2019 period)

[Astatine]

RIP Karin Strenz. She was a federal MP who was currently involved in one of the numerous corruption investigations surrounding the CDU (she decided not to run in the September elections), and died on an airplane on the way from Cuba to Germany.

[Astatine]

RIP Karin Strenz. She was a federal MP who was currently involved in one of the numerous corruption investigations surrounding the CDU (she decided not to run in the September elections), and died on an airplane on the way from Cuba to Germany.

There will be no successor to her Bundestag seat, as it was an overhang seat, right?

Since 2013, vacated overhang seats get re-filled again as long as the state list provides a successors (the Brandenburg CDU painfully experienced what happens if that isn't the case). That would be the Landtag deputy Maika Friemann-Jennert.

[Astatine]

When will we see the first poll with the Greens ahead?

Probably/hopefully never. The CSU is soon going to announce their chancellor candidate, and once the media constantly mention Söder's name in their news coverage ad nauseam, it will give him and his party a boost.

The "first polls" with the Greens ahead already happened in Summer of 2019:



Nevertheless, I agree that even if we have occasional polls seeing the Greens at the top spot, it's still half a year until the elections and with Söder as the probable candidate for Chancellor, CDU/CSU is still favored for the top spot. By then, exactly one more state election in Saxony-Anhalt will have taken place and as opinion polling in the East tends to overestimate the Greens, their current bump might crack a bit (after their abysmal results results in Thuringia/Brandenburg/Saxony compared to the expectations, the Greens saw a drop of about 3 pts. in the polling average).

[Astatine]

At this rate I guess Merkel hopefully runs for a fifth term

Absolutely no chance at all.

[Astatine]

The Greens today announced thar their "chancellor candidate" will be announced on April 19, either Robert Habeck or Annalena Baerbock.

While public speculation is that it's 50-50, I'm relatively sure Baerbock will get it because women seem to have sort of a "privilege" here.

As I have already written in the other thread: No need to invoke 'female privilege' when Baerbock is simply the better candidate. She has not only better political instincts and massive intra-party support, but also resembles Merkel in her calm and unpretentious appearance. Voters will like her.

Idk about that?

[Astatine]

The Constitutional Court decided today, that the German anti-climate-change-law is unconstitutional for not being ambitious enough to save the rights and freedoms of young and future generations.

Link to decision please. Infringing on rights by omission, now that’s something.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-climate-law-is-partly-unconstitutional-top-court-rules/a-57369917

Germany's Constitutional Court ruled Thursday that the country's 2019 climate protection act is in part unconstitutional.

"The regulations irreversibly postpone high emission reduction burdens until periods after 2030," the court said.

It added that the law does not explain in enough detail how greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced after 2031.

The judges gave the legislature until the end of next year to draw up clearer reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions for the period after 2030. [...]

"The challenged provisions do violate the freedoms of the complainants, some of whom are still very young," the court said in a statement.

"Virtually every freedom is potentially affected by these future emission reduction obligations because almost all areas of human life are still associated with the emission of greenhouse gases and are thus threatened by drastic restrictions after 2030," the statement said.

[Astatine]

2nd poll out that has numbers for the Free Voters. FGW sees them at 3 %.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1399946347575451648

Forsa seat estimation:

CDU/CSU: 201 (-45)
Greens: 189 (+122)
SPD: 110 (-43)
FDP: 110 (+30)
AfD: 71 (-23)
Left: 47 (-22)

For the first in the history of German federal election polling, the FDP is as strong as the SPD.
Btw, the record for the best Green Party polling result hasn't been broken yet, as it was set in 2011 (28 % shortly after Fukushima) and while Greens managed to receive this number four times this year, they never went to 28.5 or 29 % (As of now, I am doubtful that this will happen).

[Astatine]

It may be the first time FDP have polled level with the SPD, but pretty sure they have scored above 14% in the past - what is their highest ever figure?

Their absolute peak result was 18 % at the beginning of 2009. If their polling numbers remain as good as currently, they might get a record result in November, but I doubt that their polling record will be broken.

Is there a good chance SSW wins a seat out of Schleswig-Holstein? Just learned today they were contesting the federal election

No, this will not happen. The SSW has a statewide support of what, 3 to 4 percent? They did not even win a district in the state election. Federal election districts are much larger, so it would be even harder for the SSW to win a seat.

It could very well happen, because SSW is excepted from the five percent threshold at federal level and would just need to cross the "natural" threshold that comes with the Sainte-Lague seat calculation. The natural threshold according to the D'Hondt method would be 1/598, so 0.167 % (with that percentage, they would be absolutely safe to get a seat). As Sainte-Lague is calculated with divisors of 0.5, 1.5, etc., the first (and important) one being half of the D'Hondt divisor - 0.083 % - could be enough to get a seat.

Assuming 47 million people go to the polls this year (last time it was 46.5 million), about 40,000 votes are needed to have a realistic shot at winning a seat (and 80,000 to have a seat definitely safe).
SSW got 32,000 votes in the last state elections. Assuming SSW gets 3 % in Schleswig-Holstein with a raw turnout of 1.7 million people (it was 1.73 million in 2017), the party would have 51,000 raw votes, which would probably be enough. Plus, due to an increased size of the Bundestag, the natural threshold might actually be lower.

So as of now, I'd say it's more likely than not that the SSW will get a seat in the Bundestag. I think we need some federal Schleswig-Holstein state polls, it could very well be the case that the fact SSW is running and is excepted from the threshold simply fell under the pollsters' radar.

[Astatine]

  The FDP might play a big role if their support level can keep up. Any sense of what either the party leadership and Bundestag faction and actual FDP voters feel about what type of coalition they should try for.  I would guess the typical FDP voter would rather have their party backing a Laschet type leader over a Baerbock.

Why are the FDP surging? I know that they initially took a hit in the polls after the 2017 election because of Lindner’s antics in the coalition talks.

Also, what are the rules on exemptions from the 5% threshold, and what other parties are exempt? I assume it is something to do with national minorities.

Regarding FDP, as a formerly active party member who almost quit after the Thuringia crisis, I can tell you more about that.

- There is a large overlap between CDU and FDP voting base, mostly middle class (FDP voters tend to be younger, CDU voters are usually older, and there are some slight differences too like the FDP being a more urban party while CDU is stronger in rural areas). In elections until ~2013 when there really was a division into a CDU/FDP and an SPD/Greens camp, you really could see this strong pattern: In the 2013 federal election, the CDU gained about as many percentage points as the FDP lost. You'll see this pattern in many state elections well until then.

- This partially explains some tendencies: During the rally-around-the-flag CDU polling bump, the FDP was polling close to the five percent threshold (especially due to the Thuringia debacle, but also because the liberals' move to withdraw their support for the government's Covid policy was seen critical by many as there was broad support for it). Now, with the CDU chancellor candidate crisis, the mask affairs and a growing dissatisfaction with the government's Covid policy, the FDP logically attracts many who would support the CDU otherwise.

- The FDP found a comfortable niche in their position regarding Covid by opposing the consensus regarding stricter measures (such as the curfew) while not denying the risks of Covid (as the AfD does) and supporting quicker vaccinations or better digital infrastructure for instance. Their focus on digitalization since their re-branding paid off as that's a topic that moved more to center of attention right now.

- Nevertheless, this still means the support for the Free Democrats is extremely volatile right now as their current support is mostly relying on voters that would support the CDU else (some SPD maybe). They might have a core base of 4-6 % nationwide, but are 2nd choice for a lot of people who are currently dissatisfied with the party they usually support.

That said, there is a discrepancy between the course of the party leadership and the preferences of the party base and voters. The party leadership is officially open for any coalitions with CDU, SPD and Greens and the Jamaica debacle is mostly forgiven and both the leadership as well as the majority of the members view it positively that the FDP "didn't give up on their principles".

Still, there are large parts of the current voter base and the members that are vehemently opposed against any coalition with the Green party, especially with a Green chancellor. I know about one Bundestag member who already stated that a traffic light coalition under a Green chancellor is very unlikely, as it might fail among the party members (in 2017, it was planned that the FDP members would vote on whether to approve of a potential Jamaica coalition treaty). If the FDP goes into government with Greens, they inevitably will lose voters to the CDU. If they don't when it's mathematically possible, some of the more pragmatic voters (especially the younger base which contributed to the relatively good results in recent elections) will turn their back against the FDP. No matter what happens, the current voter coalition is extremely volatile and likely to collapse after the election. The "best" outcome for the FDP to stabilize their support would be a Black-Green/Green-Black coalition with a traffic light coalition failing to achieve a majority.

Regarding the parties exempt from the threshold, that only counts for parties that are recognized to represent minorities. As of now, that's the SSW (Danes/Frisians) on both federal and state level in Schleswig-Holstein, the Lausitz Alliance (Sorbians) on federal and state level in Brandenburg and the Frisian Party (Frisians) on federal level. Besides SSW in the early stages of the republic, no minority party has ever run in federal elections, as still a good chunk of voters in necessary to obtain a seat. The SSW is the only minority party that ever had success on statewide level, the Frisians are not recognized as minority party in Lower Saxony and the Lausitz Alliance not in Saxony (in Brandenburg tho, but iirc, they messed up with the registrations for the last state elections).
Theoretically, a Sinti and Roma party could be founded to represent them, as this the sole other nationally recognized minority.

Btw, there is still another way to avoid the five threshold. By winning three districts, a party is being treated if it took the threshold. This happened several times: PDS (predessor of the Left Party) in 1994, DP in 1957 and DP and Center Party in 1953.
This might actually be important for September, because the Left Party is dangerously close to the five percent threshold and in worst case, they would need to rely on winning three districts somewhere in Eastern Germany, which is very likely. I doubt they'll fall under five percent, but the Left definitely faces some problems right now.

[Astatine]

I just found this nice statistical model which is quite similar to FiveThirtyEight:

https://www.wer-gewinnt-die-wahl.de/de/

Here is some more information about it, including the source code:

https://github.com/INWTlab/lsTerm-election-forecast/

[Astatine]

Die Linke are flirting somewhat with the 5% threshold now - some recent polls have them only 1% above it now. It would certainly be quite an astonishing result if they failed to enter the Bundestag, although I suppose some direct mandates could still save them.

The Left Party is currently holding five districts, and most district prediction suggest they might lose 2 of those, but it seems more likely than not that the Left will win the three districts necessary to achieve parliamentary representation:





(http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?map=210521)

There is also another prognosticator for districts, but their methodology seems extremely ominous (they allegedly do polling but there is no information about it, and wahlrecht.de which is the database for reputable polls doesn't list them):

https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-im-bund/

Their forecast has some questionable results like FDP winning a district directly as well as SPD unseating two incumbents in my home state (which I consider unlikely, I might do a short district analysis for some states shortly ahead of the election ).

[Astatine]

Something I've always wondered is why do the FDP never seem to get any direct mandates?  Do they not target the direct seats or are they just screwed by having a relatively evenly distributed vote base like our LolDems?

They don't have a specific bastion where it's likely to win a direct mandate. That's different with Die Linke and of course AfD and Greens. In past election cycles, a lot of local FDP chapters informally endorsed CDU candidates while asking for the second vote (which is for the party, while the first is for a local candidate).

Yeah, the only times the FDP won districts directly were either due to CDU/DP not running candidates in selected districts to ensure a broad majority for the coalition or because of strong personal appeals (Halle in 1990 was the hometown of FDP leader Genscher and he heavily campaigned for the local candidate, Saarbrücken in 1957 was represented by a key proponent of Saar/Germany reunification).

[Astatine]

Left in disarray after the poor results in Saxony-Anhalt yesterday: Former Left Party leader and husband of Sahra Wagenknecht, Oskar Lafontaine, officially withdrew the support for his own party in the next federal election. In a tumultuous membership vote, Lafontaine's intra-party opponent Thomas Lutze was - once again - placed on the top spot for the Saarland federal election list. Lutze and Lafontaine detest each other, and there are numerous allegations of document forgery etc. against Lutze by the Wagenknecht/Lafontaine wing of the party. Lafontaine also stated that Lutze represents the exact opposite of what he and his wife believe in, so we're just gonna see a further isolation of her wing within the party.

Albeit this will not influence the federal result significantly, it's the peak of the current turmoil within the Left Party and as they're dangerously close to the five percent threshold, such discussions really don't help in the fight for electoral success.

[Astatine]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.