COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/AndyShain/status/1247258999239708676

There are now 7 states left, I think?

The Governors dragging their feet on this is the reason that the lockdowns are gonna end up lasting way longer than they had to.

Thankfully our government acted swiftly when there were still a handful of cases and now we are doing pretty good. There is even word that by June we may see a considerable relaxation of the lockdown.

In America there's a 99% chance the lockdown is going to flat out end before June. How bad is it there!?

I think it will mostly end by then but I don't know about 99% chance.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think it is now reasonable to conclude that the -exponential- growth period of the virus, or at least the first wave of it, is now over.  It may still be growing, but it definitely seems like the rate of that growth, at least expressed as a percentage, is slowing.

It's not over. There's been a lid placed on it thanks to social distancing. We stop doing this, the lid comes off and the numbers skyrocket.

[emailking]

I think it is now reasonable to conclude that the -exponential- growth period of the virus, or at least the first wave of it, is now over.  It may still be growing, but it definitely seems like the rate of that growth, at least expressed as a percentage, is slowing.

USA as a whole has been sub exponential for like a week. We'll see in the coming days if it's actually flattening or not.

[TJ in Oregon]

Step 1. There are projections that a huge number of people will die if no action is taken, but if certain actions are taken then the number will be much less.

Step 2. Those actions are taken.

Step 3. The number of deaths is close to the smaller number above.

Step 4.  Some people say "see, we didn't need to do this after all!  It was all fear mongering."

Conclusion: some people don't understand cause and effect.

This is very much true, but so is the flip side:

Step 1. There are projections that a huge number of people will die if no action is taken, but if certain actions are taken then the number will be much less.

Step 2. Those actions are taken.

Step 3.  Some people still say we're going to have the same huge number of deaths.

I think you see about every form of illogical thinking there is in something like this.

[wbrocks67]

Just because NY isn't exploding like it was before doesn't mean it's over. The #s are exploding in numerous other states right now.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I didn't know it was possible, but this press conference today is the biggest disaster and sh!tshow so far, yelling at a Hong Kong reporter, threatening to shut down the press conferences, calling every single reporter fake news and in the pocket of Democrats, refusing to answer questions about the IG report

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Just because NY isn't exploding like it was before doesn't mean it's over. The #s are exploding in numerous other states right now.

What are these numerous other states where the #s are exploding? One or two, perhaps, but even there the #s look much better then NY's during its worst period.

[Ogre Mage]

Washington State, Oregon and California send ventilators back to the national stockpile for hard-hit states

California is loaning 500 ventilators to states like New York where the coronavirus is exacting a deeper toll, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday.  Some California health officials have gained more confidence in recent days that the state's infection curve is flattening, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area, which took the nation's earliest shelter-in-place actions.

The act of generosity completes a bi-coastal aid package after both Washington and Oregon lent medical supplies to New York, which is battling the nation's worst outbreak. Ventilators from California will flow into the Strategic National Stockpile. Oregon announced Saturday it was sending 140 ventilators to New York, while Washington said Sunday it was returning more than 400 of the machines.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/06/california-sends-500-ventilators-back-to-national-stockpile-1272393

[GP270watch]

Cuomo said this a week ago. Send ventitaltors where needed now and NY State would do the same later. Glad to see states that have managed this pandemic correctly are seeing the value of what he said.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1246911781198495745
From a member of the NYC Council health committee.

Could also be people dying at home because....people are being told to stay home?

Irresponsible to attribute these deaths solely to COVID in an effort to inflate numbers and spread panic. 

Or just maybe to get a better idea of how many deaths are actually occurring.  Don't automatically assume a conspiracy.

Can I point out that it’s not a conspiracy to say that people who pushed panic measures have an interest in making the death toll look as high as possible?  A conspiracy is “Xi cooked up COVID-19 in a lab”.   I was trying to make a broader point about the apparent political/social dynamics. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1246911781198495745
From a member of the NYC Council health committee.

Could also be people dying at home because....people are being told to stay home?

Irresponsible to attribute these deaths solely to COVID in an effort to inflate numbers and spread panic. 

Or just maybe to get a better idea of how many deaths are actually occurring.  Don't automatically assume a conspiracy.

Can I point out that it’s not a conspiracy to say that people who pushed panic measures have an interest in making the death toll look as high as possible?  A conspiracy is “Xi cooked up COVID-19 in a lab”.   I was trying to make a broader point about the apparent political/social dynamics. 

Cut it out.

[brucejoel99]

Apparently Trump and Biden called each other today to discuss steps forward. All disagreements aside, I am glad that Trump got the opportunity to discuss the intricacies of this with someone who dealt with something similar with SwineFlu, particularly from the standpoint of a non-medical professional.

All I can say is that Biden is a better man than me. I don't think I could remain civil with an unrepentant criminal who extorted a foreign government into launching a phony investigation into my family.

[Skill and Chance]

NYC vs. the rest of the country (including SF which also has high public transit commuting, dense housing, and a large homeless population and is rather amazingly doing fine) makes me wonder if closing schools might be the single most important intervention?  Japan closed schools very early and while they are having some issues now (2nd wave?), they seem to be doing very well vs. the free world average. 

[Calthrina950]

I can provide some more ancedotal observations regarding the impact of the "mask" advisory and "stay-at-home" orders at my workplace, Home Depot. The store, like just about every store in this area, has started limiting the number of customers who can be in the store at any one time. No more than 100 are allowed in, and there is only one entrance and one exit. This has reduced the flow of people coming through, though it's still busy.

However, compliance with the "mask" advisories that Governor Polis and the CDC issued last week is "half-hearted", at best. Roughly half of the customers I saw today and on Saturday were wearing masks or some other covering, and half were not. I was one of only a handful of employees wearing masks, and the only one wearing both a mask and gloves; most of them were not. Two customers actually thanked me for wearing a mask, as they observed that most of the others didn't. Unfortunately, many people still aren't taking this seriously enough. Many people will not wear protective gear of any kind, much less masks, unless if they are mandated to do so.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1247260880233836553
...

[Tintrlvr]

NYC vs. the rest of the country (including SF which also has high public transit commuting, dense housing, and a large homeless population and is rather amazingly doing fine) makes me wonder if closing schools might be the single most important intervention?  Japan closed schools very early and while they are having some issues now (2nd wave?), they seem to be doing very well vs. the free world average.  

One relevant point to consider when talking about density is that the highest concentrations in the NY area are not in NYC on a per capita basis, but rather in Westchester and Rockland Counties north of the city, followed by Nassau County, and only then by the Bronx and Queens. Even within the city, the per capita rate doesn't follow density; Manhattan is by far the densest borough but has the lowest per capita rate of the five boroughs and is lower than multiple suburban counties (those mentioned above and also Orange and Suffolk Counties and Bergen County, NJ, which all also have higher per capita rates than Brooklyn).

This all suggests that NYC's severe outbreak relative to other cities is mostly down to bad luck (perhaps some early super-spreader cases) rather than density.

[Del Tachi]

NYC vs. the rest of the country (including SF which also has high public transit commuting, dense housing, and a large homeless population and is rather amazingly doing fine) makes me wonder if closing schools might be the single most important intervention?  Japan closed schools very early and while they are having some issues now (2nd wave?), they seem to be doing very well vs. the free world average.  

One relevant point to consider when talking about density is that the highest concentrations in the NY area are not in NYC on a per capita basis, but rather in Westchester and Rockland Counties north of the city, followed by Nassau County, and only then by the Bronx and Queens. Even within the city, the per capita rate doesn't follow density; Manhattan is by far the densest borough but has the lowest per capita rate of the five boroughs and is lower than multiple suburban counties (those mentioned above and also Orange and Suffolk Counties and Bergen County, NJ, which all also have higher per capita rates than Brooklyn).

This all suggests that NYC's severe outbreak relative to other cities is mostly down to bad luck (perhaps some early super-spreader cases) rather than density.

The varying rates within the Metro might come down to demographics - with suburban counties being older than the relatively young City.  

I suspect this a density story through-and-through.  NYC is 60% denser than SF and more transit-centric (55% of households in NYC don’t have a car, only 30% in SF).

[JA]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1247309259303456769?s=19

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/6 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

The new percentages (Δ Delta Change) represent the daily swing of relative gains from the last day's report rather than a metric of a proportional increase of the overall sum. In other words, if in Day A there are +100 cases/deaths, and in Day B there are +50 cases/deaths, that would be calculated as -50% (or a 50% decrease) relative to the last day. This metric shows us COVID-19's growth or decline on a day-by-day basis.

The old metric is now represented as a Sum (Σ) Increase, which represents the total percentage increase of the whole. For instance, if there were 1000 cases total over the history of COVID-19 in the U.S., and, on the next day, 50 cases were reported, that would be +5% (or a 5% increase). This number can only be 0 or a positive integer., and it represents historical summative growth, rather than effective growth.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | Δ Change: ↑6.64% | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | Δ Change: ↑5.07% | Σ Increase: ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6 (Today):

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

[Dr. Arch]

Got the new metrics in! TLDR Summary:

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1247341470450962432

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

After looking at the data yesterday, I have modelled the new data using anticipated recoveries from Italy, Spain and Germany.

The modus operandi is this: After 2-3 weeks, a positive diagnosis must end in one of two outcomes: a fatality or a recovery. Assuming deaths are correct, and based on the numbers reported, it is clear that recoveries are not being listed after three weeks at the right volume. I am predicting that we are missing around 92,500 recoveries in the data from Spain, Italy and Germany alone.

Hence I have added in the following recovery rates for these countries 2-3 weeks following a positive test:

• Spain: 3,500 per day (Total: 24,000 missing)
• Italy: 4,000 per day (Total 51,000 missing)
• Germany 3,000 per day (Total 17,500 missing)

Thanks to FrancoAgo who confirmed yesterday that the Lombardy region has actually more recoveries (28,000) alone in their region in reality than what Italy is reporting as a whole (21,000). It makes sense that medical professionals are not visiting people at home to test them if they are free of the virus. Who would want to visit 60 positively tested people per day to conduct a medical assessment on their status?

These additional numbers were added on the dates 2-3 weeks following the date where new cases were reported coming in at a similar rate.

Rather than wait for these countries to suddenly report a large number of recoveries on one day.

Case in point:



Recoveries from Australia

Will be adding the anticipated rate of recoveries now to get more interpretable information from teh 'Active Case' curves.

Once these anticipated recoveries are incorporated into the European data, the growth curves now look like this:



Where these curves dip down through the zero growth line illustrates the date at which the peak of Active Cases is reached. This correlates well with peak of daily death rate as well.

As for the USA, apart from a lull on Sunday, the numbers are still growing, albeit at a lower rate.

Hence the first phase of sub-exponential growth period in the USA has most likely come to an end.

Monitoring the growth rate over the next 10 days will allow to tell one if the peak of 'Active Cases' is being approached.

For that to happen, the USA line has to come all the way back to zero.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1247341470450962432

Ah, good ol' Trumpian corruption.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1247341470450962432

Investing heavily in gallows and guillotine futures looks better every day.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

If hydroxychloroquine works, then it should be used as a treatment.