Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 209710 times)
Pericles
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« on: November 06, 2018, 05:01:56 PM »
I think that we may be able to figure out how the night will go-or at least the big picture outcome-very early. If Braun wins Indiana, Republicans are keeping the Senate. If Cockburn wins VA-05, Democrats are taking the House. Though if she loses that doesn't mean Republicans are keeping it, and if Braun loses that doesn't mean the Senate is going Democrat, it just means these results would make the big picture very obvious.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 05:20:37 PM »
Quote from: Senator Rosen on November 06, 2018, 05:16:04 PM
Quote from: USO2019PB on November 06, 2018, 05:07:47 PM
That’s not that bad for Republicans, considering that his approvals were in the 30s last year, IMHO.

Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole.

lol. Are you really acting like one exit poll in Virginia is more meaningful than the many, many nationwide polls of his approval?!
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 05:27:30 PM »
Quote from: Shilly on November 06, 2018, 05:22:47 PM
Quote from: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 05:20:37 PM
Quote from: Senator Rosen on November 06, 2018, 05:16:04 PM
Quote from: USO2019PB on November 06, 2018, 05:07:47 PM
That’s not that bad for Republicans, considering that his approvals were in the 30s last year, IMHO.

Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole.

lol. Are you really acting like one exit poll in Virginia is more meaningful than the many, many nationwide polls of his approval?!
You're comparing polls of adults with polls of likely voters. Trump always does a few points better in the latter.

Trump was at 39% at the time among polls of likely or registered voters(see 538's tracker; https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/), his low point was August 2017 when he was at 37% and then in December he was at 38%.
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Pericles
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 06:18:26 PM »
From what I can tell so far, and it's very early, but Braun seems to be improving on Mourdock's 2012 performance.
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Pericles
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 06:37:04 PM »
538 now rates Braun as 51-49 favorite. Their forecast had Donnelly favored with a 7 in 10 chance.
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 07:12:06 PM »
538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning.
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Pericles
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 07:19:22 PM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on November 06, 2018, 07:14:27 PM
Quote from: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 07:12:06 PM
538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning.

Where did you find that,


I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts

They have a live forecast with their liveblog(https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner)
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Pericles
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 08:31:12 PM »
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2018, 08:43:28 PM »
538 at 5 in 8 odds for Dems in the House.
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Pericles
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2018, 09:00:17 PM »
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Pericles
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2018, 09:37:57 PM »
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2018, 09:46:50 PM »
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Pericles
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2018, 10:16:59 PM »
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Pericles
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2018, 10:36:59 PM »
Wow.
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Pericles
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2018, 11:03:50 PM »
538 says 100% of a Democratic House win. Beautiful.
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Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2018, 11:09:36 PM »
Carolyn Bourdeaux is still leading in GA-07 with 84% in-this is looking like a flip folks.
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Pericles
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2018, 12:04:40 AM »
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Pericles
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2018, 12:09:47 AM »
I will now accept my accolades.
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Pericles
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2018, 02:41:03 AM »

Yes! Oh god, yes!
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Pericles
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« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2018, 04:05:55 AM »
Florida going to automatic recount!
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Pericles
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« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2018, 08:50:14 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 08:12:55 PM
Steve Knight (R, CA-25) conceded to Katie Hill.

Yeah!
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Pericles
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« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2018, 05:16:51 PM »
Ugh-typical Florida.
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Pericles
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« Reply #22 on: November 11, 2018, 01:25:31 PM »
Quote from: Senator Rosen on November 11, 2018, 01:21:43 PM
Quote from: Audrey on November 11, 2018, 11:22:51 AM


^^ good point

If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number.

Absolutely. Plus Republicans had a lot of low hanging fruit in 2010 and started from a lower base at 179 seats(while Dems had 195 seats), by itself that limits the gains. The GOP went from a -11% PV margin to +7%, Dems went from -1% to around +7 or 8%. And Democrats probably would have managed to get more seats than the 2010 GOP's 242 without gerrymandering anyway.
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Pericles
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« Reply #23 on: November 12, 2018, 09:57:16 PM »
Just let Pelosi have it. Speaker isn't the same as running for President, congressional leaders don't need to be popular(look at Mitch McConnell, everyone hates him but he's good at his job). She is the best by far, she has a proven record and you don't want to put up a lightweight against McConnell and Trump. I had somewhat bought into the Pelosi being a liability line, but the Democrats won the election anyway, and Pelosi will probably retire in 2021(certainly if Democrats win the House), so she is just needed to make sure this Democratic majority is put to good use. She earned it too. The Democrats shouldn't shoot themselves in the foot on Day One, Speaker Pelosi is the best outcome.
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Pericles
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« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2018, 11:21:10 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 11:05:26 PM
Also, lol:



Lmao, that is perfect.
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