European Elections 2009 (France)

[Antonio the Sixth]

IFOP has just released a new poll, which is their second poll since November 2008, not counting that poll the PG commissioned for their wet dream. The change is compared to November 2008, but the UMP change is compared to the total UMP+NC polled separately, and the MPF-CPNT change is compared to the the total MPF+CPNT polled separately.

UMP 26% (+2)
PS 23% (+1)
MoDem 14.5% (+2.5)
Greens 7% (-4)
NPA 9% (+1)
FN 6% (-1)
PCF-PG 4% (n/c)
LO 3% (-1)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 5% (-2)
DLR 2% (+1)
FNd 0.5% (+0.5) (only polled in NW and SW)

That's no bad for PS, especially with the recent leadership crisis. I'm particularly happy of MoDem's good score : I think that Bayrou is for the moment the best opponent to Sarkozy. However, I'm worried by the success of NPA, who can durably damage the PS.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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If you add MoDem, you have a 60,5% majority for Sarkozy's opponents. That's a great result.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ps and MoDem have a lot in common, by opposing Sarkozy economical, immigration and security policies and proposing a more progressive system. Compared to U.S. politics, PS is the far-left wing of the Democratic Party, and MoDem the center-left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My point being : PS + MoDem > UMP.
You can also add Greens and PCF, who are PS traditional allies, and you have a strong anti-UMP coalition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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Yes, as there are voters who approve Obama and who have voted for McCain ( 65% when Obama get 53% ).
It don't changes that it's a very good score for Sarkozy's opposition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You said :

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I just wanted to correct this affirmation, who takes no acount of the french political system.

[Antonio the Sixth]

First : in 1999 PS was not opposition, but majority.
Then : in 2004, you couldn't  consider UDF as an opposition party, so it gives about the same.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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I agree.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Their choices for second place really do suck. It's scary. I mean, unknown people like Estelle Grellier (defeated 2007 candidate), Liem Hoang Gnoc (quasi-Trot economist), Sylvie Guillaume (scarier. Google search returns nothing about her. Holy crap), Cécile Jonathan (see that Guillaume person), Stéphane Le Foll (spinmaster and Hollande friend). But I guess that's what happens when your party just got out of an all-out civil war and is now in a Cold War.

Their third choices aren't any better. Karim Zéribi, a goddamn union (CGT for SNCF. Haha lol haha) clown and former MDC member. Eric Andrieu, apparently mayor of a village with 158 people. And finally. The worst. The very worst. Isabelle Thomas, a former student unions clown and perennial loser who can't win any direct elections. Now those clowns could very well end up as MEPs.

Lol PS. You never fail to fail.

Unfortunately, I agree with you. I'm a PS sympathizer and I agree with the party's ideology ( especially with people like Strauss-Khan, Rocard or Delanoë ), but I can't more bear this ridiculous leadership. How could we have a real alternative to Sarkonservatism ? Maybe Bayrou, but it will be very tough...
Oh, in these moments I really would like to be an American !...

[Antonio the Sixth]

People like Dieudonné make me vomit...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dieudonné will lead an "anti-Zionist" list in Ile-de-France. He claims that the UMP and the PS declared a "cultural war" against him after he publically denied the Holocaust and mocked its victims.

lol.

While he's a disgusting piece of crap who deserves nothing but crap to fall on his head, it will be interesting to make a map for his performance!

I would not be surprised if it looks like the Le Pen map...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dieudonné will lead an "anti-Zionist" list in Ile-de-France. He claims that the UMP and the PS declared a "cultural war" against him after he publically denied the Holocaust and mocked its victims.

lol.

While he's a disgusting piece of crap who deserves nothing but crap to fall on his head, it will be interesting to make a map for his performance!

I would not be surprised if it looks like the Le Pen map...

Wrong, the clappers of Dieudonné are youngs of poor suburbs.

Frankly, what it seems it's that the guy it's just looking for the most provoking things, he knows that's ridiculous, but that's really provoking, he must enjoy himself of all blames he gets from all over media. More media say he's awful, more he enjoys it. They shouldn't give as much attention to his provoking game, they feed it.

Media should rather pay attention of the fact that Dieudonné has a lot clappers within poor suburbs youth.

Yes, but the more frightening thing is the number of people who went to see him at the Zénit and hear his nauseating speech with Faurisson. I will never understand why so many people is attracted by hatred and stupidity.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If only it was a gun. Now that would be funny.

The FN's campaign is attracting some criticism (much deservedly so).

In the Sud-Ouest, Louis Aliot started the game by publishing this poster:



The FN claims Jean Jaurès was not a Marxist but in fact a nationalist, who was strongly attached to the concept of nationalism, patriotism, and so forth. Aliot wrote that Jaurès strongly opposed the German annexation of Alsace-Lorraine (no wai rly).

In the Nord-Ouest, now Jr. has continued the game with this poster:



Roger Salengro was the SFIO Mayor of Lille and Minister of the Interior during the Front populaire era. Jr. has said that Salengro supported the concept of "national preference" in terms of immigration. Jr. also said that Salengro had once said that "in a nation of 300,000 unemployed, there's no need for immigrant workers". Of course, the FN forgot that this same man passed a law dissolving far-right ligues in 1936 and sparked a violent and totally false wave of attacks from the far-right press at the time. They accused him of deserting in October 1915 (in reality, he was taken prisoner by the Germans and freed in 1918) and they even started rumours saying he was homosexual. Salengro committed suicide.

This whole campaign is disgusting, but nothing new coming from the fascists.

Disgusting and revolting. The only good news is that they are forced to use this sort of message only because FN is a dying party that has no more future. If they have chosen to dy so ridiculous, maybe someone will remember them...

I read on Charlie hebdo, a satyrical but, despite his appearance, very intelligent weekly, this comment ( I prefere not to translate it to prevent english errors ) :
"Louis Aliot, candidat du FN aux élections européennes dans le Sud-Ouest, a utilisé un portrait de Jean Jaurès sur ses affiches de campagne, avec le slogan "Jaurès aurait voté Front National". Dommage que l'extrême droite l'ait assassiné avant."
It summarizes everything.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2 rather bad pollsters.

CSA, which is the French Zogby. It's also owned by Vincent Bolloré, though that doesn't automatically make it awful as the left likes to think.
UMP 27%
PS 25%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
FN 8%
NPA 7%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
DLR 1%

While they don't seem too insane on the first numbers, their numbers for the smaller parties are most likely outliers. The FN is not going to poll 8%, which is only slightly below the 2004 level, and the Left Front won't be reduced to just 3%.

OpinionWay, which is also rather bad. The lefties have said that it is a Le Figaro-UMP pollster. This sample is about 490 people only and I think it's an interwebs poll.
UMP 28%
PS 23%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
NPA 7%
FN 6%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 5%
Others 3%
DLR 1%

58% will vote based on national issues, 40% based on European issues. 40% won't vote based on Sarkozy, 38% will voice their disapproval, 20% will voice their approval.

Two right-leaning polls that show the Ps close to UMP... I think we can win !

[Antonio the Sixth]

2 rather bad pollsters.

CSA, which is the French Zogby. It's also owned by Vincent Bolloré, though that doesn't automatically make it awful as the left likes to think.
UMP 27%
PS 25%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
FN 8%
NPA 7%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
DLR 1%

While they don't seem too insane on the first numbers, their numbers for the smaller parties are most likely outliers. The FN is not going to poll 8%, which is only slightly below the 2004 level, and the Left Front won't be reduced to just 3%.

OpinionWay, which is also rather bad. The lefties have said that it is a Le Figaro-UMP pollster. This sample is about 490 people only and I think it's an interwebs poll.
UMP 28%
PS 23%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
NPA 7%
FN 6%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 5%
Others 3%
DLR 1%

58% will vote based on national issues, 40% based on European issues. 40% won't vote based on Sarkozy, 38% will voice their disapproval, 20% will voice their approval.

Two right-leaning polls that show the Ps close to UMP... I think we can win !

Damn, you're 15 years old an you believe in PS??

Nothing is eternal. There was a time, in the 80's, when the Democratic Party was in a similar situation that the PS' today.

A new Ifop poll (the one that already try to poll the 2012 presidential election...).

UMP 26,5% (+0,5%)
PS 22,5% (-0,5%)
MoDem 14% (-0,5%)
Greenies 7,5% (+0,5%)
FN 7,5% (+1,5%)
NPA 7% (-2%)
PCF-PG 5,5% (+1,5%)
Libertas 5% (=)
LO 2,5% (-0,5%)
DLR 1,5% (-0,5%)

Not bad numbers... But what ? FN gets more than NPA ? Fascist idiots are decisely hard to die.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not bad numbers... But what ? FN gets more than NPA ? Fascist idiots are decisely hard to die.

I expect NPA supporters expressing themselves more in streets than in votes, at least they didn't claim for the anti-sarkozy referendum until now.

The month of May will be decisive, Bayrou will very aired with his book against Sarkozy and we have to see what will give in the country the movement of protest until now led by unions.

I fear that the PS will be once more invisible...

[Antonio the Sixth]

The right is very low. You're almost obliged to take FN into account ! It's completely weird.
The right is as low as under late Raffarin and under Villepin, but the left is completely unable to appear as a conquering and winning force....

What every election since 2004 teaches us is that a unique party of the right is a big mistake.
I was strongly in favour of it when I saw divisions of the 1980s and 1990s. But it was electorally far better !

We need to have something in the centre-right, to prevent Bayrou from gathering some old UDF supporters who haven't yet understood he is just an ambitious maniac, ready to be the Italian-like candidate of a green-left-"other" coalition.

What you say is completely false and prove how it's difficult for people to understand that the center should not necessarily be a moderate right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The right is very low. You're almost obliged to take FN into account ! It's completely weird.
The right is as low as under late Raffarin and under Villepin, but the left is completely unable to appear as a conquering and winning force....

What every election since 2004 teaches us is that a unique party of the right is a big mistake.
I was strongly in favour of it when I saw divisions of the 1980s and 1990s. But it was electorally far better !

We need to have something in the centre-right, to prevent Bayrou from gathering some old UDF supporters who haven't yet understood he is just an ambitious maniac, ready to be the Italian-like candidate of a green-left-"other" coalition.

What you say is completely false and prove how it's difficult for people to understand that the center should not necessarily be a moderate right.

Can't you understand that I'm not talking about political philosophy but political strategy and tactics and elections ?

I'm not talking about the "Centre", a new world of Ideas, "ni droite ni gauche", with a marvelous leader from Béarn,
but about electoral reality: about 40 to 45% of MoDem voters (see good pollsters as IPSOS and IFOP, even SOFRES) are in fact old UDF supporters who would vote for the centre-right if there is one real and strong party, with a real leader, in this place (NC is not, unfortunately).

These voters will be disappointed when Bayrou will be allied with the PS and Greens.
But, at the same time, it's difficult for them to vote for the UMP with Sarkozy or old RPR in the 1st round. This phenomenon is especially clear in Brittany, where the UMP is very weak, because it's too rightist for moderate voters.

Sure, there is real centrists among MoDem voters (about 30-35%). But these ones will never vote for the UMP in the 2nd round. So, they're not interesting in an electoral strategy.

The rest of MoDem voters are from the left and the Greens and come back more easily in the 2nd round. And will come back even in the first round if Strauss-Kahn or Hollande or Valls or Moscovici or even Peillon is candidate in 2012.

Yes, but the facts has proved that every parties who definited themselves as "center-right" finished to be clones of the rightist party. Do you really think there was a real difference between UDF and RPR political views in the 1980-1990 years ? Today, that's exactly the same between UMP an NC. And Bayou appears to be the one who is able to create an independent centrist party.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I must add that you have missed all the debate in the right and the centre-right for a one-party right between 1981 and 2002.

Yes, there was a real difference between UDF and RPR. Moderates against rightists, atlanticists and europeans against gaullists and "souverainistes", social right against liberal right (this difference was between CDS-FD and PR-DL-RPR), "décentralisateurs" against "Jacobins",...

Yes, there was certainly many issues inside the right, but the fact is that these issues didn't have any importance in the political practical. Chirac government had no problem with "social" right deregulating the economy. The moderate conservative Balladur was challenged by Chirac, but running as a radical leftist ( ah, this Chirac ! ). In fact, UDF supported anything that the RPR did to keep safe its constituencies.

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Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

I tend to agree with this, Bayrou is building himself a political line. In order to achieve a very personal ambition apparently but he's building himself a line, and which remains centrist. The point I would reproach him is he doesn't build this line on a clear system of value, he picks here or there things, and say "that's my line", it misses a clear coherence which goes in the sens that his movement his more nothing but personal.

You could say the same about Blair or Clinton. They remain in my opinion better statesmen than Thatcher/Major and Reagan/Bush.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways, changing from the topic of how Bayrou is this and that, which is not the point of this thread. So, changing topics.

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 27% (nc)
PS 23% (-1)
MoDem 11% (+1)
Greens 10% (+1)
NPA 7% (-2)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5% (-0.5)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 2% (+1.5)

OK, this pretty much confirms that Ifop's numbers for the Greenies (and, by consequence, MoDem) are outliers, and probably the same for the FN. However, more pollsters are picking up the NPA's slight dip in support, so that's interesting.

There was a famous sentence in a French film "les Tontons Flingueurs": je vais le faire exploser, le disperser aux 4 coins de Paris, façon puzzle. "I'm going to make him explode, to scatter him up, like a puzzle".

This is the same for European elections in France, since the beginning (1979): a scattered political landscape.

In 1979 there was only 4 main lists. European elections are not really more scattered than presidential, look at the 2002 results !

[Antonio the Sixth]

The UMP has finally released its entire lists. I'll only show the candidates that could, in theory, win a seat outright (most won't, needless to say). I bolded the people with a realistic chance at getting in (using FrancePolitique's projections based on Sarkozy's first round results in 2007).

East (9 seats)
1 - Joseph Daul (Bas-Rhin): MEP, President of the EPP-ED Parliamentary Group
2 - Véronique Mathieu (Vosges): MEP, Radical ex-CPNT
3 - Arnaud Danjean (Saône-et-Loire): Ran against Arnaud Montebourg in '07.
4 - Michèle Striffler (Haut-Rhin): Adjointe to the Mayor of Mulhouse. Modern Left.
5 - Benjamin Develey (Marne): Reims municipal councillor
6 - Nathalie Colin-Oesterle (Moselle): Metz municipal councillor. NC
7 - Sylvain Marmier (Doubs): President of some young agricultural thingee
8 - Annabelle Ferry (Meurthe et Moselle): President of the Young Radicals
9 - Guillaume Germain (Haut-Rhin)

Nord-Est (10 seats)

1 – Dominique Riquet (Nord): Mayor of Valenciennes. Radical
2 – Tokia Saifi (Nord): MEP. Radical
3 - Jean-Paul Gauzes: MEP
4 - Pascale Gruny (Aisne): Saint-Quentin municipal councillor
5 - Philippe Boulland (Oise): Oise general councillor
6 - Sonia de la Provote (Calvados): Caen municipal councillor. NC
7 - Philippe Rapeneau (Pas-de-Calais): NPDC regional councillor
8 - Blandine Lefebvre (Seine-Maritime): Regional councillor (Haute-Normandie) and Mayor of Saint-Nicolas-d'Aliermont. NC
9 - Pierre Savreux (Somme): Amiens municipal councillor. Departmental president of the Young Populars (UMP youth movement).
10 - Brigitte Mauroy (Nord): lol name. Lille municipal councillor. Modern Left

Ouest (9 seats)
1 – Christophe Bechu (Maine et- Loire): President of the Maine-et-Loire General Council
2 – Elisabeth Morin (Vienne): MEP, Poitou-Charentes regional councillor (ex-President)
3 - Alain Cadec (Côtes d’Armor): Côtes d’Armor general councillor. Adjoint to the MoDem Mayor of Saint-Brieuc
4 - Agnès le Brun (Finistère): Mayor of Morlaix and Finistère general councillor.
5 - Bruno Drapron (Charente-Maritime): Saintes municipal councillor. NC
6 - Danielle Rival (Loire-Atlantique): Regional councillor, Mayor of Batz-sur-Mer
7 - David le Solliec (Morbihan): Regional councillor, Mayor of Gourin
8 - Sylvie Marcilly (Charente-Maritime): Mayor of Fouras
9 - Richard Chamaret (Sarthe): NC

Sud-Ouest (10 seats)

1 – Dominique Baudis (Haute-Garonne): Former UDF Mayor of Toulouse and deputy. 1994 UDF-RPR list top candidate.
2 - Christine de Veyrac (Haute-Garonne): MEP, President of the UMP Fed in Haute-Garonne
3 - Alain Lamassoure (Pyrénées-Atlantiques): MEP
4 - Marie-Thérèse Sanchez-Schmidt (Pyrénées-Orientales): Adjointe to the Mayor of Perpignan
5 - Franck Proust (Gard): Gard general councillor
6 - Muriel Boulmier (Lot et Garonne): NC supported by FRS
7 - Yves Urieta (Pyrénées-Atlantiques): Former PS/GM Mayor of Pau. Modern Left
8 - Annabelle Brunet (Pyrénées-Orientales): Perpignan municipal councillor. NC
9 - Aurélien Pradie (Lot): Lot general councillor. Leader of the Lot Young Populars.
10 - Marie-France Theron (Gironde): Mayor of Portets

Sud-Est (13 seats)

1 - Françoise Grossetete (Loire): MEP
2 - Damien Abad: President of the Young Centrists. NC
3 - Dominique Vlasto (Bouches du Rhône): MEP
4 - Gaston Franco (Alpes-Maritimes): Former deputy
5 - Nora Berra (Rhône): Candidate in 2004 (5th spot)
6 - Michel Dantin (Savoie): Chambéry municipal councillor
7 - Karine Fenocchi (Corse du Sud): Ajaccio municipal councillor. NC
8 - Jérôme Clement (Vaucluse)
9 - Chantal Eyemoud (Hautes-Alpes): Mayor of Embrun (no, not the junk village next to Ottawa), NC
10 - Benoît Pelletier (Var): Toulon municipal councillor
11 - Pascale Modelski (Isère): Grenoble municipal councillor
12 - Jean-François Royer (Bouches-du-Rhône): Young Populars thingee
13 - Sonia Lacroix-Chamosset (Haute-Savoie)

IDF (13 seats)

1 – Michel Barnier: Minister of Agriculture
2 – Rachida Dati (Paris): Minister of Justice, Paris municipal councillor and Mayor of Paris-7
3 - Jean-Marie Cavada (Paris): MEP, NC/ACDE
4 - Marielle Gallo (Paris): Modern Left
5 - Philippe Juvin (Hauts-de-Seine): Mayor of Garenne-Colombes and VP of the CG92.
6 - Constance Le Grip (Seine-et-Marne): "Supply" deputy
7 - Xavier Lemoine (Seine-Saint-Denis): Mayor of Montfermeil. FRS
8 - Véronique Cote-Millard (Yvelines): Mayor of Clayes-sous-Bois
9 - Jean-Didier Berthault (Paris): Paris municipal councillor
10 - Céline Martin
11 - Benjamin Lancar: President of the Young Populars
12 - Anne Bernardin
13 - Gilles Norroy: The Progressives (Besson's thingee)

Massif Centre (5 seats)

1 - Jean-Pierre Audy (Corrèze): MEP
2 - Sophie Auconie (Indre-et-Loire): Tours municipal councillor. NC
3 - Brice Hortefeux (Puy-de-Dôme): Minister of Labour, Auvergne regional councillor (former MEP and top candidate in 2004)
4 - Catherine Soullie (Loiret)
5 - Jean-Yves Hugon (Indre): Former deputy

Outre-Mer (3 seats)

Marie-Luce Penchard (Atlantic candidate and 'top candidate')
Yolaine Costes (Indian Ocean candidate)
Maurice Ponga (Pacific candidate)

http://www.ump2009.eu/index.php?section=/endirect/detail&id=1792

The UMP managed to please its allies with the spots they were promised or demanded. The NC managed to get a good spot for Damien Abad in the Sud-Est. They also got eligible spots in the Capital Region with Cavada and a third one in the Massif-Centre. The Radicals managed to the top two spots in the Nord-Ouest and the second spot in the East. For GM, only Striffler could win a seat. The Progressives of Eric Besson gets only a thirteenth spot in IDF, though Xavier Bertrand insists that it's because Besson didn't ask for more. The FRS, Christine Boutin's joke party got seventh in Paris.

Anyways, it isn't that bad, but still deceiving to see good MEPs get bumped down to allow some old fool to run in first. Though atleast we don't have any Mayors of Trefouillet-les-Oies with a chance of winning.

On a side note, the UMP's slogan will be "Quand l'Europe veut, l'Europe peut" (When Europe wants, Europe can).

Here is the UMP's campaign poster. Sarkozy's face will be on the poster, obviously.

On another tangent, I'm officially endorsing the Parti breton/Strollad Breizh list in the Ouest.

There are members of Gauche Moderne in the UMP list ? Oh, God...

[Antonio the Sixth]

A new Ifop poll (May 11)

UMP 27% (+0.5%)
PS 21.5% (-1%)
MoDem 13.5% (-0.5%)
Greenies 7% (-0.5%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7% (nc)
PCF-PG 6.5% (+1%)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (-0.5%)
DLR 1% (nc)
Others 2% (+1.5%)

So, PS is coming more and more down in the polls ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

92 of FN

Wow !

Who are these proud 8% ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

92 of FN

Wow !

Who are these proud 8% ?

Statistical margin of error...

Yes, but 8/100*7/100*5079=28.
That means 28 people that declare wanting to vote for the FN support the entry of Turkey in the EU...