Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Those early voting numbers look rough. Looks like the Kavanaugh bump stuck.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The Blue Wave is officially dead (I know I said that before, but perhaps now people will listen). People are voting in 2016-level turnout. Didn't the Red Avatars here say that we needed a low turnout in order to the Blue Wave to happen?  

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Looks like all these polls ended up being good-for-nothing when the GOP turns out anyway and there's no marked enthusiasm gap. Game over. Try again in 2022.  

I must confess I’m getting nervous that turnout is getting too high to the point we might have a really polarized result

I'm feeling that the ideal real of high Dem and indy turnout and low GOP turnout is just not going to happen—the Republicans love them some Trump—so I'm putting my hope in Dem turnout being really high and Indys breaking heavily against Trump's party.

Yep, this is 2002 more than 1982. I'm glad you're starting to see that. This is what happens when Dems play identity politics instead of trying to win.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The Blue Wave is officially dead (I know I said that before, but perhaps now people will listen). People are voting in 2016-level turnout. Didn't the Red Avatars here say that we needed a low turnout in order to the Blue Wave to happen?  

"2016-level turnout" is not a binary state.

I've been seeing people being worried that high turnout means that the GOP is matching the Dems. Why is it suddenly "not a binary state" when the numbers are no longer convenient?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

 

How could it not be? Numbers don't lie.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Then why are Democrats more confident and Republicans not?

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1055453434286166016

Complacency, which I have warned about many times in this darn forum. C'mon. The numbers don't lie, period. Confidence is just a feeling one has...not backed up by any cold hard facts.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I checked with the guy who made this graph, this does include both in-person and mail-in absentee/early vote:



https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1055551929756065794

That Milwaukee number is impressive considering they've been a little "eh" since 2012. Decent jump from yesterday too, based on the graph he posted yesterday where they were almost on the blue line.

Those numbers are fantastic for Walker, who relies more on Waukesha and similar counties and doesn't need the Obama-Trump rurals.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Backing up my analysis a bit further:

https://twitter.com/trowaman/status/1055879196575186944

https://twitter.com/trowaman/status/1055879448229175296

Yep, a lot of it is shenanigans with the voting hours in Harris County...which close at 4:30 PM compared to 7PM in the rest of the state. Dems have no chance here. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

You know the WOW counties will show up along with Dane County, but it's great to see Milwaukee up there above the state average. Maybe Mandela Barnes on the ticket is helping drive some turnout in the black northside of the city. Also it's great to see Menominee County up there, usually they drop off during midterms.

It's looking good! Menominee is maxing out; MKE is meeting the average, and Dane is off the charts.

Dane is literally a point away from the average, while Waukesha and Ozaukee outpace Milwaukee. What are you talking about? Great numbers for Walker.