rough 2040 electoral map

[windjammer]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

[windjammer]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

I would not bet on that. 25 years ago people thought Virginia was solidly Republican, that it would never go Democratic.

I mean, I know people believe that because Obama carried these states by a smaller margin in 2012 than in 2008. The fact is that Obama really overperformed in WI, MI and PA in 2008. If you look at the results in 2004,2000, 1996, it is relatively similar than in 2012.

[windjammer]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

I would not bet on that. 25 years ago people thought Virginia was solidly Republican, that it would never go Democratic.

I mean, I know people believe that because Obama carried these states by a smaller margin in 2012 than in 2008. The fact is that Obama really overperformed in WI, MI and PA in 2008. If you look at the results in 2004,2000, 1996, it is relatively similar than in 2012.

Yes, he over performed in the Midwest in general in 2008 (especially Illinois and Indiana). These have been Lean D states for a while, to surely suggest they won't change politically though is risky.

Of course it is, but I don't see a single reason why it would move in a such way. I don't expect whites to vote even less for democrats for example.

But that's just me, of course.

I personally believe republicans will be able to becomecompetitive again in states with a high hispanic population. The democrats won't be able to carry the hispanic vote by a such bigger margin than in 2012. That's why I don't believe states like Texas will become democrat one day for example.

[windjammer]

Relative to much larger drop in the overall popular vote though.


It goes without saying, if the two party system is to be preserved, the GOP will either break into Hispanics, or break into a great share of the White Working Class vote and change accordingly to achieve that end. The current GOP may not get above 60%, but is that any different from saying that the current GOP cannot get over 35% amongst Hispanics?

Well,
In order to be more appealing to the latinos: they would have to moderate on social issues (immigration).
In order to be more appealing to the whites: they would have to moderate on economic issues.

The first scenario is more likely.