PA-SEN (Beacon Research): Fetterman +11 (LV)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The John Bolton poll had Fetterman up 44/38 if that pollster had Fetterman up it's OVER

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

Xing also said there was no way Andy Beshear won and he won on provisions ballots like Evers over Scott Walker and he predicted 1 wrong in GA and both Ossoff and Warnock didn't win outright they were trailing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s believable that Oz is widely disliked AND a large but not decisive share of voters will commit to him only at the very last minute out of partisanship.

Biden is from Scranton and it's not unthinkable that PA and MI are solid D states due to fact Casey and Wolf won by double digits and Trump is making a okay for PA in 24 he has no chance with Casey and STABENOW on MI and PA ballot in 24

It's over when Bolton and Fox had Fetterman up 44/38

Oz was a D before he turned R anyways and most Muslim are swing voters but vote D, MI is a Muslim state and D's dominate the state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

This is not the kind of year where a result like D+11 in PA would make any sense, and the same was true of polls in WI at the time. If it were a Trump midterm, then sure, it’d be believable.

You are wrong, your R nut map has 0 probably

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not an R wave yr it's a neutral cycle 303 map and we can win NC and OH Senate races if it was an R wave yr we would be losing 30 Govs and we're not Evers, Whitmer and Shapiro will win, and we lost seats in the H in 2020 with a 303'map in. 2020