Is realignment theory dead?

[Skill and Chance]

At this point I'm gonna say 2032 with a Democrat, as I don't think polarization is gonna break enough for it to happen this decade. Gun to my head:

• In 2022, the GOP retakes the House in a ripple instead of a wave. The Democrats net a gain of a seat or two in the Senate
• In 2024, the Democrats (not sure if it'll be Biden or Harris) narrowly hold the White House, failing short of retaking the House, and narrowly losing the Senate
  
• 2026 is a near 2014 level GOP wave
• After six years of Gridlock, a Republican narrowly defeats Kamala Harris in 2028
• 2030 is the start of a realignment to the 7th party system. The Democrats retake the House and Senate, and have their strongest showing at the state and local level since 2008. 3 decades of Republican gerrymandering is undone after the 2030 census, and the playing field is finally level
• Due to a recession or foreign crisis, a Democrat defeats the Republican incumbent President by a 2020 PV margin and an EV win margin somewhere between 2008 and 1996.

When you can’t see we’re already in a Democratic realignment (that’s dying and getting weaker)

Not sure about this.  Feels like you are putting way too much weight on the presidential PV (it's pretty obvious to me that Bush could have won the PV in 2000 if he was actively competing for it, though it was clearly out of reach for Trump in 2016).  Dems are only 5/8 in actual presidential wins since 1992 and they have controlled each chamber of congress less than half of the time since then.  They only had the majority of governors for like 3 years out of 30.  That's not particularly impressive.

Looking beyond the presidential PV, I like the Republican realignment that started in 1994 story better. 

[Skill and Chance]

Whichever party successfully marries conservative cultural identity with socialized medicine, bank regulation, CEO salary regulation, and a platform of labor/manufacturing revitalization will win in a monumental landslide for decades... We're talking on the level of the Democrats from 1932-53 or the Republicans from 1968-1992.

There is some truth to this.  There was a point in the summer of 2017 when Trump was getting ready to call for raising the top tax bracket and make peace with Obamacare, but then he backed off at the last minute.  Had he gone through with that and later embraced an earlier and stricter COVID response (as many of the same populist voices called for), it would have been a realignment and he easily wins reelection.

[Skill and Chance]

Alternative theory: 2012 was the last election of the Reagan era and the realignment was 2014/16?