It's more likely that it happens in a scandal than in a dem wave, so we'd probably be talking about how that scandal brought him down.
I have trouble picturing a scandal that would be bad enough for a Governor with like a ~70% approval rating to lose, but not one bad enough that he doesn't get BTFO in a deep blue state.
Baker's electoral success relies almost entirely on personal appeal. If it were a scandal that brings down Baker in a close election, it would probably be one based on controversial or unproven allegations that he would steadfastly deny. How that would play out, I couldn't tell you, there's a reason this result is highly unlikely.
