Ohio redistricting thread

[TJ in Oregon]

what's the rule about splitting Cleveland? Isn't Cuyahoga currently split between 11, 14, and 16?

TBF not sure if its legal but you split the city of Cleveland itself 3 times which isn't a very good look. Splitting Cuyohoga three times is fine but splitting a city of around 350k three times isn't very good.

Ah I see your point. I can definitely work on redrawing it with these criteria in mind.

The new redistricting criteria forbid splitting Cleveland at all so it's a no go.

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's an attempt at a compliant 13-2 map I put together a couple days ago. I don't think the Ohio GOP would quite be willing to go this far as it results in a number of R+4 seats that could easily fall in a wave. The geography of it actually comes out quite clean except for Akron.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62e01fe6-ea25-421b-b48c-8638e8381824

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's an attempt at a compliant 13-2 map I put together a couple days ago. I don't think the Ohio GOP would quite be willing to go this far as it results in a number of R+4 seats that could easily fall in a wave. The geography of it actually comes out quite clean except for Akron.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62e01fe6-ea25-421b-b48c-8638e8381824

Why use 2010 numbers?

The DRA uses 2010 precincts with 2018 population estimates for Ohio. The 2016 estimates have been depricated.

[TJ in Oregon]

Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.

[TJ in Oregon]

Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.

Would it still be less Republican than the current OH-01?

Yes it's been well established that ohio 1st can be moved to trump 7 so it's even more Republican.

Would that require cracking Cincinnati?

No, it just requires being very selective about which suburbs can be put with Cincinnati (namely look east and west and not north or northeast). Examples can be seen earlier in this thread.

[TJ in Oregon]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

Perhaps the best answer to stop gerrymandering is to force binding drafts of maps to be made 8 years prior to the census

Of course Mr. Wolf's opinion is simply whatever increases the number of Democrats elected.

[TJ in Oregon]

My attempt at a neutral map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e53b8128-1fa9-444c-b299-4fc75886169d

[TJ in Oregon]

After some input from lfromnj, I've made a few minor tweaks to put Delaware County in a Columbus area seat:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/77b88d59-ce40-4301-80f8-fed7aaf6d8d4

This moves 8 to the left, but not enough to be competitive. It also moves 13 left and 12 right about 0.3%.

[TJ in Oregon]

@Thunder: Your 11th district is illegal for neither containing an entire county nor being entirely within a county.

[TJ in Oregon]

Unfortunately I can't find the tweet, but the Cleveland area districts are going to have to get cleaned up before the final map. The current maps crack the black community hard.

Hmm... they seem to have 4 black state house seats. I'm not sure if more than that is possible?

[TJ in Oregon]

I've done some further edits. These changes impacted 8 of 15 seats, though in the case of one district, it was merely to put in one precinct split for reasons of compliance with Ohio law.

The 12th can be made more competitive if it scoops into South Franklin and drops some deep blue parts to the 3rd.

That would make both the 12th and 3rd less compact. I'm stressing compactness, less county and township splits, and other types of CoI anyway, though I have expended some effort in making the map D-friendly on the margins due to Rs having significantly more solid seats, when it does not majorly disfavor any of those three goals. My Toledo CD is an example of such a move.

this is the latest iteration.

Your OH-9 breaks the Ohio constitution because it neither contains a whole county nor is entirely contained within a single county. A compliant map that only has 2 districts in Cuyahoga and attaches Lorain cannot be drawn.