Will NC become larger than Georgia?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seems very plausible based on the 2020-2021 population changes, at which NC was growing faster than GA. Will be a very close-run thing either way, though.

I'm a bit confused about their 2021 estimates though because they seem to be in line with their 2020 estimates rather than the true 2020 numbers. For 2021 numbers, they have states like NY and RI (which outperformed in the census) doing rlly badly), whereas underperformers like NC and AZ did really well.

It's well established that the 2020 census numbers erred in a meaningful way.  The North was generally overestimated by several % and the South was generally underestimated by several %.  The 2020 census error margin was on a scale not seen since before WWII.  I would be very careful extrapolating these numbers.  

How do we know that it's actually an error on the census's part rather than them just being lazy with estimates?

It'd be hilarious though if Trump singlehandedly cost Rs an extra seat in FL and TX they otherwise would've gotten.

They acknowledge it here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-overcount-rates-by-state.html

The New York overcount and the Florida and Texas undercounts are likely >500K people each.  This is not normal.  

If true, those are some really awful errors. I can understand underoc**nting, especially in states like TX where you have a lot of non-English speakers and stuff, but overcount in NY? It's not like we just have tons of abandoned homes that they could say people live in or smtg.

Yes.  Unless something happens to make life in the South uniquely undesirable, we are likely to see a ton of CDs move in 2031.  I wouldn't be shocked by something like TX +4, FL +3, AZ+2, GA +1.

Where do those seats come from? You think wv, ri, ny, midwestern states lose more? Maybe ca continues to stagnates

WV just lost a seat so it should hold it's 2nd seat for another few decades.

RI and NY are def both vulnerable to losing another seat.

The usual midwestern suspects who've been losing for a while (PA, IL, OH, MI), with an off chance of smtg from IN, MN, and/or WI.

AL

Chance of CT and/or NJ.

And CA could def lose another seat, possible a few.

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Possible guess here: TX +4, FL +3, AZ +2, GA +1, WA +1, RI -1, OH -1, NY -2, PA -1, IL -1, OH -1, MN -1, MI -1, AL -1, NJ -1.

This looks a lot like what I expect.  Not sure if you intentionally had OH losing 2?  I think it's more likely the other lost seat would come from a smaller Plains or Northeast state.  IIRC, Connecticut, Kansas, and Nebraska are all getting pretty close to the seat loss threshold.  On the other hand, ND-02 starts to be plausible if commodity prices stay high for years.

The other thing is that AL was caught up in the Southern undercount and still kept  AL-07.  Therefore, I would be somewhat surprised if it loses that seat next time.  I think it's more likely CA loses another seat.

ID-03 is also likely to happen in 2031 if current trends continue, but it will take some time to know if that's permanent or just a temporary Boise real estate bubble.

With the expansion of federal employment after the 2008 crisis, VA-12 looked like it was going to happen in 2020, but probably won't anymore until/unless the country enters a significant war.  Let's hope that doesn't happen.  Also federal WFH policies are very lenient making it less important to live in the DC area going forward. 

Nebraska should still be fine come 2030 considering how many people are going there for the cheap cost of living. I don't think that's as strong of a factor in KS, so if I had to guess, between those three, the likelihood of losing a seat is highest for CT and lowest for NE. Historical trends on paper would suggest CT losing a CD might be well-overdue by 2030...they most recently lost a seat in 2000. But Connecticut has never had more than six CDs, so maybe this is just a faulty way to look at it.

Good catch re: ID-03. I completely forgot about it being possible; Idaho has never had more than two CDs, interestingly enough. I also forgot that CA could lose another seat. The "Southern undercount" surely helped CA at least on the margins.

Re: Alabama, I think it will come down to places like the Mobile metro. Baldwin County will be a place to watch. No matter what happens, if AL keeps 7 seats, AL-01 shrinks. If AL loses a seat, AL-01 might not grow too much at all to begin with...provided it stays in a recognizable form.

VA+1 might still well happen if the sprawl in Northern Virginia continues to grow, I would not rule it out.